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Last update: 2026-05-04
| Title | Date | Abstract | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreclassing: A new machine learning perspective on human decision making with temporal data | 2026-04-30 | ShowTime series forecasts are widely used to inform decisions. Human decision-makers interpret these forecasts, incorporate prior experience and uncertainty about future outcomes, and then make a decision. In this paper, we propose a new machine learning problem, which we call Foreclassing, which addresses settings in which the aim is to automate human involvement in such decision-making processes. Our aim is to develop a unified end-to-end model that takes a time series as input, produces a forecast, accounts for its predictive uncertainty, and makes a downstream classification decision, enabling models to support or automate such temporal decision-making tasks. Related problems arise across a range of applications, yet the literature lacks both a unified methodology and a formal problem statement. By formalizing the task, we aim to stimulate research on such models and encourage cross-domain collaboration. To solve the Foreclassing problem, we propose a deep Bayesian neural network, ForeClassNet. As part of this framework, we introduce a new type of neural network layer, Boltzmann convolutions, which enable probabilistic learning of kernel sizes in convolutional layers. We evaluate the Foreclassing framework against standard time series classification methods and demonstrate the efficacy of ForeClassNet on real-world Foreclassing datasets from the weather, energy, and finance domains, achieving superior performance relative to state-of-the-art time series classifiers. |
20 pa...20 pages, 1 figure, 15 tables |
| Sequential Inference for Gaussian Processes: A Signal Processing Perspective | 2026-04-30 | ShowThe proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that represent complex, nonlinear relationships with high predictive accuracy. Adapting these models often requires sequential inference, which differs both theoretically and methodologically from the usual paradigm of ML, where data are often assumed independent and identically distributed. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible yet principled framework for modeling random functions, and they have become increasingly relevant to SP as statistical and ML methods assume a more prominent role. We provide a self-contained, tutorial-style overview of GPs, with a particular focus on recent methodological advances in sequential, incremental, or streaming inference. We introduce these techniques from a signal-processing perspective while bridging them to recent advances in ML. Many of the developments we survey have direct applications to state-space modeling, sequential regression and forecasting, anomaly detection in time series, sequential Bayesian optimization, adaptive and active sensing, and sequential detection and decision-making. By organizing these advances from a signal-processing perspective, we intend to equip practitioners with practical tools and a coherent roadmap for deploying sequential GP models in real-world systems. |
53 pa...53 pages, 7 figures. Accepted to IEEE Signal Processing Magazine |
| Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models | 2026-04-30 | ShowTime Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting. |
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| Early Detection of Water Stress by Plant Electrophysiology: Machine Learning for Irrigation Management | 2026-04-30 | ShowPurpose: Fast detection of plant stress is key to plant phenotyping, precision agriculture, and automated crop management. In particular, efficient irrigation management requires early identification of water stress to optimize resource use while maintaining crop performance. Direct physiological sensing offers the potential to detect stress responses before visible symptoms appear. Methods: In this study, we recorded electrophysiological signals from greenhouse-grown tomato plants subjected to water stress and developed a framework based on machine learning for online stress detection. The recorded time-series data were processed using a processing pipeline that includes statistical feature extraction and selection, automated machine learning or alternatively deep learning, and probability calibration. Results: Across multiple input time horizons, we found that a 30-minute look-back window strikes the best balance between rapid decision-making and classification performance. Using automated machine learning, the framework achieved classification accuracies of up to 92%, outperforming deep learning approaches. Sequential backward selection reduced the feature set while maintaining performance. Importantly, the framework detects transitions from healthy to stressed states in recordings that were not included in the training set. Conclusion: Overall, we provide a decision-support tool for farmers and establish a foundation for biofeedback-driven irrigation control to improve resource efficiency in (semi-)autonomous crop production systems. |
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| ITS-Mina: A Harris Hawks Optimization-Based All-MLP Framework with Iterative Refinement and External Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-30 | ShowMultivariate time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in numerous real-world applications, including financial analysis, energy management, and traffic planning. While Transformer-based architectures have gained popularity for this task, recent studies reveal that simpler MLP-based models can achieve competitive or superior performance with significantly reduced computational cost. In this paper, we propose ITS-Mina, a novel all-MLP framework for multivariate time series forecasting that integrates three key innovations: (1) an iterative refinement mechanism that progressively enhances temporal representations by repeatedly applying a shared-parameter residual mixer stack, effectively deepening the model's computational capacity without multiplying the number of distinct parameters; (2) an external attention module that replaces traditional self-attention with learnable memory units, capturing cross-sample global dependencies at linear computational complexity; and (3) a Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) algorithm for automatic dropout rate tuning, enabling adaptive regularization tailored to each dataset. Extensive experiments on six widely-used benchmark datasets demonstrate that ITS-Mina achieves state-of-the-art or highly competitive performance compared to eleven baseline models across multiple forecasting horizons. |
19 pa...19 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, 4 algorithms |
| Differentiable latent structure discovery for interpretable forecasting in clinical time series | 2026-04-30 | ShowBackground: Timely, uncertainty-aware forecasting from irregular electronic health records (EHR) can support critical-care decisions, yet most approaches either impute to a grid or sacrifice interpretability. We introduce StructGP, a continuous-time multi-task Gaussian process that couples process convolutions with differentiable structure learning to uncover a sparse, ordered directed acyclic graph (DAG) of inter-variable dependencies while preserving principled uncertainty. We further propose LP-StructGP, which augments StructGP with latent pathways-shared, temporally shifted trajectories inferred via subject-specific coupling filters and a softmax gating mechanism-to capture cross-patient progression patterns. Both models are trained under sparsity and acyclicity constraints (augmented Lagrangian, Adam) using scalable low-rank updates. Results: In simulations, the approach reliably recovers ground-truth graphs (Structural Hamming Distance approaching 0 as cohorts grow) and pathway assignments (high Adjusted Rand Index). On a MIMIC-IV septic shock cohort (n=1,008; norepinephrine, creatinine, mean arterial pressure), StructGP improves short-horizon (6 h) forecasting over independent-task baselines (average RMSE 0.68 [95%CI: 0.63--0.74] vs. 0.88 [0.83-0.94]) and, with 15 additional inputs, markedly outperforms unstructured kernels (0.63 [0.58-0.69] vs. 3.02 [2.85-3.18]) with superior calibration (coverage 0.96 vs. 0.84). On the PhysioNet Challenge (12k patients, 41 variables), StructGP attains competitive accuracy (MAE 3.72e-2) relative to a state-of-the-art graph neural model while maintaining calibrated uncertainty. Conclusion: These results show that structured process convolutions with latent pathways deliver interpretable, scalable, and well-calibrated forecasting for irregular clinical time series. |
This ...This manuscript is under review at BioData Mining |
| CastFlow: Learning Role-Specialized Agentic Workflows for Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-30 | ShowRecently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting. |
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| Forecasting the Maintained Score from the OpenSSF Scorecard: A Study of GitHub Repositories Linked to PyPI Packages | 2026-04-30 | ShowBackground: The OpenSSF Scorecard is widely used to assess the security posture of open-source software repositories, with the Maintained metric serving as a key indicator of recent maintenance activities, helping users identify actively maintained projects and potentially abandoned dependencies. However, the metric is inherently retrospective, providing only a short-term snapshot based on the past 90 days of repository activity and offering no insight into the future. This limitation complicates risk assessment for developers and organizations that rely on open-source dependencies. Aims: In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of forecasting future maintenance activities as captured by the OpenSSF Maintained score. Method: Focusing on 3,220 GitHub repositories linked to one of the top 1% most central PyPI libraries, as ranked by PageRank, we reconstruct historical Maintained scores over a three-year period and frame the problem as a multivariate time series forecasting task. We study four target representations: the raw Maintained score (0-10), a bucketed score capturing low (0-2), moderate (3-7), and high (8-10) maintenance levels, the numerical trend slope between consecutive scores, and categorical trend types (downward, stable, upward). We compare a machine learning model (Random Forest) and a deep learning model (LSTM) using training windows of 3-12 months and forecasting horizons of 1-6 months. Results: Our results show that future maintenance activity can be forecasted with meaningful accuracy, particularly when using aggregated representations such as bucketed scores and trend types leading to accuracies above 0.95 and 0.79. Notably, simpler machine learning models perform at least on par with deep learning approaches, suggesting that effective forecasting does not require complex architectures. |
20 pa...20 pages, 8 figures, 1 table |
| Probabilistic Circuits for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-30 | ShowJoint probabilistic modeling is essential for forecasting irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) to accurately quantify uncertainty. Existing approaches often struggle to balance model expressivity with consistent marginalization, frequently leading to unreliable or contradictory forecasts. To address this, we propose CircuITS, a novel architecture for probabilistic IMTS forecasting based on probabilistic circuits. Our model is flexible in capturing intricate dependencies between time series channels while structurally guaranteeing valid joint distributions. Experiments on four real world datasets demonstrate that CircuITS achieves superior joint and marginal density estimation compared to state of the art baselines. |
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| FoReco and FoRecoML: A Unified Toolbox for Forecast Reconciliation in R | 2026-04-30 | ShowForecast reconciliation has become key to improving the accuracy and coherence of forecasts for linearly constrained multiple time series, such as hierarchical and grouped series. Yet, comprehensive software that jointly covers cross-sectional, temporal, and cross-temporal reconciliation has so far been lacking. The R packages FoReco and FoRecoML address this gap by offering a comprehensive and unified framework. The packages respectively implement classical and regression-based linear reconciliation approaches, and non-linear approaches based on machine learning for cross-sectional, temporal and cross-temporal frameworks. Designed for accessibility and flexibility, these packages provide sensible default options that allow new users to apply reconciliation methods with minimal effort, while still giving expert users full control to explore state-of-the-art extensions through customized settings. With this dual focus, FoReco and FoRecoML are versatile tools for practitioners and researchers working on forecast reconciliation. |
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| CausalCompass: Evaluating the Robustness of Time-Series Causal Discovery in Misspecified Scenarios | 2026-04-30 | ShowCausal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing benchmarks. To address these challenges, we propose CausalCompass, a flexible and extensible benchmark framework designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery (TSCD) methods under violations of modeling assumptions. To demonstrate the practical utility of CausalCompass, we conduct extensive benchmarking of representative TSCD algorithms across eight assumption-violation scenarios. Our experimental results indicate that no single method consistently attains optimal performance across all settings. Nevertheless, the methods exhibiting superior overall performance across diverse scenarios are almost invariably deep learning-based approaches. We further provide hyperparameter sensitivity analyses to deepen the understanding of these findings. We additionally conduct ablation experiments to explain the strong performance of deep learning-based methods under assumption violations. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that NTS-NOTEARS relies heavily on standardized preprocessing in practice, performing poorly in the vanilla setting but exhibiting strong performance after standardization. Finally, our work aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of TSCD methods under assumption violations, thereby facilitating their broader adoption in real-world applications. The user-friendly implementation, documentation and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CausalCompass-anonymous-5B4F/. |
Major...Major revision from the previous version |
| Gender Bias in YouTube Exposure: Allocative and Structural Inequalities in Political Information Environments | 2026-04-30 | ShowRecommendation algorithms have become the dominant mechanism for information distribution on digital platforms, profoundly shaping personalized information consumption environments. However, gender bias, as a significant form of algorithmic discrimination, may cause users to experience unequal exposure within different political information environments. Taking YouTube as a case, we conduct a controlled social-bot field experiment, where male-coded and female-coded profiles are constructed. We track the exposure and click patterns of these bots to analyze their recommendation trajectories. We analyze the distribution of recommended content from two dimensions: allocative bias and structural bias. First, we find statistically significant differences in allocative bias across male-coded and female-coded profiles, particularly in terms of issue distribution, ideological orientation, and political entities. Secondly, we observe structural bias in the political information environments, characterized by distinct clustering patterns. Additionally, time-series analysis shows that exposure pathways continue to be shaped over time by both communities detected in the co-occurrence network and individual profile-level dynamics. Finally, we construct a simple collaborative-filtering model that reproduces the observed gender bias. We argue that gender bias in recommendation systems is reflected not only in the allocation of political content, but also in how community structures shape these environments, reinforcing societal inequalities and highlighting the need for algorithmic fairness. |
16 pa...16 pages, 6 figures, submit to Information Processing & Management |
| A Study on the Performance of Distributed Training of Data-driven CFD Simulations | 2026-04-30 | ShowData-driven methods for computer simulations are blooming in many scientific areas. The traditional approach to simulating physical behaviors relies on solving partial differential equations (PDE). Since calculating these iterative equations is highly both computationally demanding and time-consuming, data-driven methods leverage artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to alleviate that workload. Data-driven methods have to be trained in advance to provide their subsequent fast predictions, however, the cost of the training stage is non-negligible. This paper presents a predictive model for inferencing future states of a specific fluid simulation that serves as a use case for evaluating different training alternatives. Particularly, this study compares the performance of only CPU, multiGPU, and distributed approaches for training a time series forecasting deep learning (DL) model. With some slight code adaptations, results show and compare, in different implementations, the benefits of distributed GPU-enabled training for predicting high-accuracy states in a fraction of the time needed by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. |
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| Bayesian inference for hidden Markov models under genuine multimodality with application to ecological time series | 2026-04-30 | ShowBayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The parallel tempering (PT) algorithm, a state-space augmentation method, is a widely used approach for dealing with multimodal distributions. Nevertheless, standard implementation of the PT algorithm may not always be sufficient to effectively explore the high-dimensional, complex multimodal posterior distributions that arise in HMMs. In this work, we demonstrate common pitfalls when implementing the PT algorithm for HMMs, approaches to remedy them, and introduce new non-informative prior distributions that facilitate effective posterior distribution exploration. We analyse time series of blue whale dive data with two 3-state HMMs in a Bayesian framework, one of which includes a categorical covariate in the transition probability matrix to account for the effect of sound stimuli on the whale's behavior. We demonstrate how effective implementation of the modified PT algorithm for Bayesian inference leads to effective exploration of the resultant multimodal posterior distribution and how that affects inference for the underlying movement patterns of the blue whales. |
37 pa...37 pages, 11 figures, to be submitted to Bayesian Analysis, corrected author affiliations |
| VTBench: A Multimodal Framework for Time-Series Classification with Chart-Based Representations | 2026-04-29 | ShowTime-series classification (TSC) has advanced significantly with deep learning, yet most models rely solely on raw numerical inputs, overlooking alternative representations. While texture-based encodings such as Gramian Angular Fields (GAF) and Recurrence Plots (RP) convert time series into 2D images, they often require heavy preprocessing and yield less intuitive representations. In contrast, chart-based visualizations offer more interpretable alternatives and show promise in specific domains; however, their effectiveness remains underexplored, with limited systematic evaluation across chart types, visual encoding choices, and datasets. In this work, we introduce VTBench, a systematic and extensible framework that re-examines TSC through multimodal fusion of raw sequences and chart-based visualizations. VTBench generates lightweight, human-interpretable plots -- line, area, bar, and scatter, providing complementary views of the same signal. We develop a modular architecture supporting multiple fusion strategies, including single-chart visual-numerical fusion, multi-chart visual fusion, and full multimodal fusion with raw inputs. Through experiments across 31 UCR datasets, we show that: (1) chart-only models are competitive in selected settings, particularly on smaller datasets; (2) combining multiple chart types can improve accuracy by capturing complementary visual cues; and (3) multimodal models improve or maintain performance when visual features provide non-redundant information, but may degrade accuracy when they introduce redundancy. We further distill practical guidelines for selecting chart types, fusion strategies, and configurations. VTBench establishes a unified foundation for interpretable and effective multimodal time-series classification. |
8 pages main text |
| Preserving Temporal Dynamics in Time Series Generation | 2026-04-29 | ShowTime-series data augmentation plays a crucial role in regression-oriented forecasting tasks, where limited data restricts the performance of deep learning models. While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have shown promise in synthetic time-series generation, existing approaches primarily focus on matching marginal data distributions and often overlook the temporal dynamics that naturally exist in the original multivariate time series. When generating multivariate time series, this mismatch leads to distribution shift and temporal drift, thereby degrading the fidelity of the synthetic sequences. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based framework to mitigate distribution shift and preserve temporal dynamics in synthetic time series. We provide a theoretical analysis of how conditional generative models accumulate deviations under sequential generation and demonstrate that the MCMC algorithm can correct these discrepancies by enforcing consistency with empirical transition statistics between neighboring time points. Extensive experiments on the Lorenz, Licor, ETTh, and ILI datasets using RCGAN, GCWGAN, TimeGAN, SigCWGAN, and AECGAN demonstrate that the proposed MCMC framework consistently improves autocorrelation alignment, skewness error, kurtosis error, R$^2$, discriminative score, and predictive score. These results suggest that synthetic time series consistent with the original data require explicit preservation of transition laws rather than solely relying on adversarial distribution matching, thereby offering a principled direction for improving generative modeling of time-series data. |
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| Context-Aware Graph Attention for Unsupervised Telco Anomaly Detection | 2026-04-29 | ShowWe propose C-MTAD-GAT, an \emph{unsupervised}, \emph{context-aware} graph-attention model for anomaly detection in multivariate time series from mobile networks. C-MTAD-GAT combines graph attention with lightweight context embeddings, and uses a deterministic reconstruction head and multi-step forecaster to produce anomaly scores. Detection thresholds are calibrated \emph{without labels} from validation residuals, keeping the pipeline fully unsupervised. On the public TELCO dataset, C-MTAD-GAT consistently outperforms MTAD-GAT and the Telco-specific DC-VAE, two state-of-the-art baselines, in both event-level and pointwise F1, while triggering substantially fewer alarms. C-MTAD-GAT is also deployed in the Core network of a national mobile operator, demonstrating its resilience in real industrial settings. |
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| LLM-Enhanced Topical Trend Detection at Snapchat | 2026-04-29 | ShowAutomatic detection of topical trends at scale is both challenging and essential for maintaining a dynamic content ecosystem on social media platforms. In this work, we present a large-scale system for identifying emerging topical trends on Snapchat, one of the world's largest short-video social platforms. Our system integrates multimodal topic extraction, time-series burst detection, and LLM-based consolidation and enrichment to enable accurate and timely trend discovery. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first published end-to-end system for topical trend detection on short-video platforms at production scale. Continuous offline human evaluation over six months demonstrates high precision in identifying meaningful trends. The system has been deployed in production at global scale and applied to downstream surfaces including content ranking and search, driving measurable improvements in content freshness and user experience. |
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| Tree-of-Evidence: Efficient "System 2" Search for Faithful Multimodal Grounding | 2026-04-29 | ShowLarge Multimodal Models (LMMs) achieve state-of-the-art performance in high-stakes domains like healthcare, yet their reasoning remains opaque. Current interpretability methods, such as attention mechanisms or post-hoc saliency, often fail to faithfully represent the model's decision-making process, particularly when integrating heterogeneous modalities like time-series and text. We introduce Tree-of-Evidence (ToE), an inference-time search algorithm that frames interpretability as a discrete optimization problem. Rather than relying on soft attention weights, ToE employs lightweight Evidence Bottlenecks that score coarse groups or units of data (e.g., vital-sign windows, report sentences) and performs a beam search to identify the compact evidence set required to reproduce the model's prediction. We evaluate ToE across six tasks spanning three datasets and two domains: four clinical prediction tasks on MIMIC-IV, cross-center validation on eICU, and non-clinical fault detection on LEMMA-RCA. ToE produces auditable evidence traces while maintaining predictive performance, retaining over 0.98 of full-model AUROC with as few as five evidence units across all settings. Under sparse evidence budgets, ToE achieves higher decision agreement and lower probability fidelity error than other approaches. Qualitative analyses show that ToE adapts its search strategy: it often resolves straightforward cases using only vitals, while selectively incorporating text when physiological signals are ambiguous. ToE therefore provides a practical mechanism for auditing multimodal models by revealing which discrete evidence units support each prediction. |
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| IDOBE: Infectious Disease Outbreak forecasting Benchmark Ecosystem | 2026-04-29 | ShowEpidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting, standardized benchmark datasets for evaluating such methods are lacking. Further, there is limited understanding on performance of these methods for novel outbreaks with limited historical data. In this paper, we propose IDOBE, a curated collection of epidemiological time series focused on outbreak forecasting. IDOBE compiles from multiple data repositories spanning over a century of surveillance and across U.S. states and global locations. We perform derivative-based segmentation to generate over 10,000 outbreaks covering multiple outcomes such as cases and hospitalizations for 13 diseases. We consider a variety of information-theoretic and distributional measures to quantify the epidemiological diversity of the dataset. Finally, we perform multi-horizon short-term forecasting (1- to 4-week-ahead) through the progression of the outbreak using 11 baseline models and report on their performance. In addition to standard metrics such as NMSE and MAPE for point forecasts, we include probabilistic scoring rules such as Normalized Weighted Interval Score (NWIS) to quantify the performance. We find that MLP-based methods have the most robust performance, with statistical methods having a slight edge during the pre-peak phase. IDOBE dataset along with baselines are released publicly on https://github.com/NSSAC/IDOBE to enable standardized, reproducible benchmarking of outbreak forecasting methods. |
11 pages, 6 figures |
| Exploring the Potential of Probabilistic Transformer for Time Series Modeling: A Report on the ST-PT Framework | 2026-04-29 | ShowThe Probabilistic Transformer (PT) establishes that the Transformer's self-attention plus its feed-forward block is mathematically equivalent to Mean-Field Variational Inference (MFVI) on a Conditional Random Field (CRF). Under this equivalence the Transformer ceases to be a black-box neural network and becomes a programmable factor graph: graph topology, factor potentials, and the message-passing schedule are all explicit and inspectable primitives that can be engineered. PT was originally developed for natural language and in this report we investigate its potential for time series. We first lift PT into the Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Transformer (ST-PT) to repair PT's missing channel axis and weak per-step semantics, and adopt ST-PT as a shared cornerstone backbone. We then identify three distinct properties that PT/ST-PT offers as a factor-graph model and derive three Research Questions, one per property, that probe how each property can be exploited in time series: RQ1. The graph topology and potentials are direct programmable primitives. Can this be used to inject symbolic time-series priors into ST-PT through structural graph modifications, especially under data scarcity and noise? RQ2. The CRF's factor matrices are the operator's potentials. Can an external condition program these factor matrices on a per-sample basis, so that conditional generation becomes structural rather than feature-level modulation of a fixed one? RQ3. Each MFVI iteration is a Bayesian posterior update on the factor graph. Can this turn the latent transition of latent-space AutoRegressive (AR) forecasting from an opaque MLP into a principled posterior update, and can a CRF teacher distill its latents into the AR student to counter cumulative error? We give one empirical study per question. Together, these three studies position ST-PT as a programmable framework for time-series modeling. |
30 pages, 2 figures |
| ATLAS: An Annotation Tool for Long-horizon Robotic Action Segmentation | 2026-04-29 | ShowAnnotating long-horizon robotic demonstrations with precise temporal action boundaries is crucial for training and evaluating action segmentation and manipulation policy learning methods. Existing annotation tools, however, are often limited: they are designed primarily for vision-only data, do not natively support synchronized visualization of robot-specific time-series signals (e.g., gripper state or force/torque), or require substantial effort to adapt to different dataset formats. In this paper, we introduce ATLAS, an annotation tool tailored for long-horizon robotic action segmentation. ATLAS provides time-synchronized visualization of multi-modal robotic data, including multi-view video and proprioceptive signals, and supports annotation of action boundaries, action labels, and task outcomes. The tool natively handles widely used robotics dataset formats such as ROS bags and the Reinforcement Learning Dataset (RLDS) format, and provides direct support for specific datasets such as REASSEMBLE. ATLAS can be easily extended to new formats via a modular dataset abstraction layer. Its keyboard-centric interface minimizes annotation effort and improves efficiency. In experiments on a contact-rich assembly task, ATLAS reduced the average per-action annotation time by at least 6% compared to ELAN, while the inclusion of time-series data improved temporal alignment with expert annotations by more than 2.8% and decreased boundary error fivefold compared to vision-only annotation tools. |
7 pag...7 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables |
| Inferring bifurcation diagrams of two distinct chaotic systems by a single machine | 2026-04-29 | ShowWe propose a dual-channel reservoir-computing scheme for inferring the dynamics of two distinct chaotic systems with a single machine. By augmenting a standard reservoir with a system-label channel and a parameter-control channel, the machine can be trained from time series collected from a few sampled states of the two systems. We show that the trained machine not only predicts the short-time evolution of the sampled states, but also reproduces the long-term statistical properties of unseen states, thereby enabling reconstruction of the bifurcation diagrams of both systems from partial observations. The effectiveness of the scheme is demonstrated for the Lorenz and Rössler systems in numerical simulations and for the Chua and Rossler circuits in experiments. Functional-network analysis further shows that the two target systems are encoded by distinct dynamical patterns in the reservoir. These results extend multifunctional and parameter-aware reservoir computing, and provide a route to data-driven inference of multiple nonlinear systems using a single machine. |
10 pages, 4 figures |
| Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models | 2026-04-29 | ShowIn this paper, we present the first systematic comparison of Data Assimilation (DA) and Likelihood-Based Inference (LBI) in the context of an Agent-Based Model (ABM). These models generate observable time series driven by evolving, partially-latent microstates. Latent states must be estimated to align simulations with real-world data, a task traditionally addressed by DA, particularly in continuous and equation-based models used in weather forecasting. However, the nature of ABMs poses challenges for standard DA methods. Solving such issues requires adapting previous DA techniques or using ad hoc alternatives such as LBI. DA approximates the likelihood in a model-agnostic way, making it broadly applicable but potentially less precise. In contrast, LBI provides more accurate state estimation by directly leveraging the model's likelihood, but at the cost of requiring a hand-crafted, model-specific likelihood function, which may be complex or infeasible to derive. We compare the two methods on the Bounded-Confidence Model, a well-known opinion dynamics ABM, where agents are affected only by others holding sufficiently similar opinions. We find that LBI better recovers latent agent-level opinions, even under model mis-specification, leading to improved individual-level forecasts. At the aggregate level, however, both methods perform comparably, and DA remains competitive across levels of aggregation under certain parameter settings. Our findings suggest that DA is well-suited for aggregate predictions, while LBI is preferable for agent-level inference. |
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| Time series classification with random convolution kernels: pooling operators and input representations matter | 2026-04-29 | ShowThis article presents a new approach based on MiniRocket, called SelF-Rocket, for fast time series classification (TSC). Unlike existing approaches based on random convolution kernels, it dynamically selects the best couple of input representations and pooling operator during the training process. SelF-Rocket achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the University of California Riverside (UCR) TSC benchmark datasets. |
v1: i...v1: initial version, incorrect evaluation. v2: Method improved, evaluation corrected, title simplified. v3: Add acknowledgments. v4: text correction |
| Hybrid Quantum-Classical Ridgelet Neural Networks for Portfolio Optimization | 2026-04-29 | ShowIn this study, we introduce a quantum computing method that incorporates Ridglet transforms into quantum processing pipelines for financial time-series forecasting with Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA)-based portfolio optimization. We propose a Quantum Ridgelet Neural Network (QRNN) model for forecasting time-series data that integrates Parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) with ridgelet-based feature transformations and QAOA-based portfolio optimization for asset selection. By breaking down financial time-series data into multi-resolution components, the ridgelet transform enables the identification of both local and global trends. Ridgelet-based features improve the scalability and accuracy of quantum computing by significantly reducing the number of qubits needed. However, the predicted results are turned into a QUBO-based mean-variance optimization problem and solved with QAOA to select the best stocks. Our study begins with a theoretical formulation of the single-qubit system for our proposed model. This formulation is further extended to a multi-qubit system, and we show that it captures a significant fraction of the predictive signal. |
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| On the Role of Time Series Clustering in Traffic Matrix Prediction | 2026-04-28 | ShowThis paper analyzes the role of time-series clustering in traffic matrix (TM) prediction. Traffic flows within a TM often exhibit heterogeneous behavior, which can reduce the effectiveness of global forecasting models that predict all flows jointly. To address this, we propose a clustering-based prediction framework that groups flows into smaller subsets and trains separate predictors for each group. Four traffic-flow representations for clustering are explored, namely, histogram, autocorrelation function (ACF), power spectral density (PSD), and naïve partitioning, and how the representation choice and the number of clusters affect prediction performance. Experiments using the publicly available Abilene and GÉANT datasets show that clustering consistently improves over global forecasting baselines, while remaining substantially less costly than local prediction. The results further show that most of the performance gain is achieved at moderate values of K, with diminishing returns as the number of clusters increases. Although different clustering representations produce different partitions of the traffic flows, they often achieve similar root mean squared error (RMSE). This suggests that the main benefit of clustering lies in decomposing the TM prediction task into smaller subproblems, while the exact cluster structure plays a more limited role in determining overall prediction accuracy. |
This ...This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication |
| Deep Learning of Solver-Aware Turbulence Closures from Nudged LES Dynamics | 2026-04-28 | ShowDeep learning approaches have shown remarkable promise in turbulence closure modeling for large eddy simulations (LES). The differentiable physics paradigm uses the so-called a-posteriori approach for learning by embedding a neural network closure directly inside the solver and optimizing its learnable parameters against ground truth time-series data which may be observed sparsely. This addresses a key limitation of a-priori learning where direct numerical simulation (DNS) data is used to approximate the subgrid stress with the assumption of a filter. However, closures that are trained in this manner frequently lead to unstable deployments due to the mismatch between the assumed filter and the effect of numerical discretizations. However, a-posteriori learning incurs high computational costs due to the need to backpropagate gradients through an LES solver. Furthermore, a-posteriori methods are challenging to apply broadly since they require significant modification of existing solvers. Finally, these approaches have also been observed to be limited when generalization is desired across different numerical schemes. In this work, we discuss a novel approach for the deep learning of turbulence closure models motivated by the continuous data assimilation (CDA) approach (also known as nudging). Our approach enables a-priori training of closures for coarse-grid LES, treating DNS data as sparse observations. This approach enables the deep learning model to successfully learn the required forcing to capture the ground-truth statistics while maintaining long term stability without needing adjoints or backpropagation through the solver. We train and evaluate the model's ability to adapt to different numerical and temporal schemes. Additionally, we analyse the model behavior with varying numerical discretization errors and compare its predictions to traditional closure models. |
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| PPG-Based Affect Recognition with Long-Range Deep Models: A Measurement-Driven Comparison of CNN, Transformer, and Mamba Architectures | 2026-04-28 | ShowPhotoplethysmography (PPG) is increasingly used in wearable affective computing due to its low cost and ease of integration into consumer devices. Recent advances in deep learning have introduced long-range sequence models, such as Transformers, and state-space models, like Mamba, which have demonstrated strong performance on natural language and general time-series tasks. However, it remains unclear whether these architectures offer tangible benefits over widely used Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) for PPG-based affect recognition, given that datasets are typically small and noisy. This work presents a measurement-driven comparison of four deep learning architectures, CNN, CNN-LSTM hybrid, Transformers, and Mamba, for classifying arousal, valence, and relaxation states from wrist-based PPG signals. All models are evaluated under a subject-independent 5-fold cross-validation protocol using identical preprocessing, segmentation, and training pipelines. Our results show that the Transformer and Mamba models achieve performance comparable to that of a CNN baseline, but do not consistently outperform it across all tasks. CNNs remain the most effective overall, providing the highest accuracy with the smallest model size, whereas Transformers have a better balance of F1 scores for Arousal and Relaxation. The study provides the first evaluation of Transformer and Mamba models for PPG-based affect recognition, offering practical guidance on model selection for wearable affective monitoring systems. |
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| Privacy-Preserving Federated Learning Framework for Distributed Chemical Process Optimization | 2026-04-28 | ShowIndustrial chemical plants often operate under strict data confidentiality constraints, making centralized data-driven process modeling difficult. Federated learning (FL) provides a promising solution by enabling collaborative model training across distributed facilities without sharing raw operational data. This paper proposes a privacy-preserving federated learning framework for distributed chemical process optimization using data collected from multiple geographically separated plants. Each plant locally trains a neural-network-based process model using its own time-series sensor data, while only model parameters are transmitted to a central aggregation server through secure aggregation mechanisms. This design allows cross-plant knowledge sharing while maintaining strict data locality and industrial confidentiality. Experimental evaluation was conducted using process datasets from three independent chemical plants operating under heterogeneous conditions. The results demonstrate rapid convergence of the federated model, with the global mean squared error decreasing from approximately 2369 to below 50 within the first five communication rounds and stabilizing around 35 after 40 rounds. In comparison with local-only training, the proposed federated framework significantly improves prediction accuracy across all plants, while achieving performance comparable to centralized training. The findings indicate that federated learning provides an effective and scalable solution for collaborative industrial analytics, enabling privacy-preserving predictive modeling and process optimization across distributed chemical production facilities. |
10 pa...10 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, 17 equations |
| A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach to Automated Stock Trading, using xLSTM Networks | 2026-04-28 | ShowTraditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these limitations, this study explores the usage of the newly introduced Extended Long Short Term Memory (xLSTM) network in combination with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for automated stock trading. Our proposed method utilizes xLSTM networks in both actor and critic components, enabling effective handling of time series data and dynamic market environments. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation, is employed to optimize the trading strategy. Experiments were conducted using financial data from major tech companies over a comprehensive timeline, demonstrating that the xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM-based methods in key trading evaluation metrics, including cumulative return, average profitability per trade, maximum earning rate, maximum pullback, and Sharpe ratio. These findings mark the potential of xLSTM for enhancing DRL-based stock trading systems. |
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| Deflation-Free Optimal Scoring | 2026-04-28 | ShowSparse Optimal Scoring (SOS) reformulates linear discriminant analysis to enable feature selection through elastic net regularization, making it well-suited for high-dimensional settings where the number of features exceeds observations. Most existing SOS methods use deflation-based strategies that compute discriminant vectors sequentially, which can propagate errors and produce suboptimal solutions. We propose a novel approach that estimates all discriminant vectors simultaneously under an explicit global orthogonality constraint, which we call Deflation-Free Sparse Optimal Scoring (DFSOS). DFSOS combines Bregman iteration with orthogonality-constrained optimization, decomposing the problem into tractable subproblems for scoring vectors, discriminant vectors, and orthogonality enforcement. We establish convergence to stationary points of the augmented Lagrangian under mild conditions. Extensive experiments using synthetic data and real-world time series data demonstrate that DFSOS achieves classification accuracy comparable to or better than existing deflation-based methods. These results indicate that deflation-free approaches offer a robust and effective framework for sparse discriminant analysis in high-dimensional problems. |
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| Using Large Language Models for Black-Box Testing of FMU-Based Simulations | 2026-04-28 | ShowWe propose a human in the loop approach for black-box testing of Functional Mock-up Units (FMUs) using Large Language Models (LLMs). The goal is to reduce the manual effort in defining test scenarios for dynamic simulation models and to improve the interpretability of results. The approach takes the functional and interface specifications of an FMU as input, and prompts an LLM to generate structured scenario goals in Given-When-Then format that define the initial input conditions of the simulation, a possible change in those conditions, and the expected output behaviour of the system against those changes. The corresponding scenario plans specify input patterns and add assertion oracles that describe expected output patterns defined in scenario goals. The approach generates a complete input time series for the scenario plans, runs the FMU simulation, and evaluates assertions on the recorded outputs. It produces human-readable logs and plots that show statistics for each scenario with overlays, aggregate pass rates, and per-goal outcomes. The generated scenarios and results are stored for evaluation and later re-execution. We evaluate the approach on a Lube Oil Cooling system and discuss design choices that make the approach practical for everyday use. Results suggest that LLM-assisted scenario generation can facilitate automatic test design and verification of dynamic simulation models. |
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| Exponentially weighted estimands and the exponential family: Filtering, prediction and smoothing | 2026-04-28 | ShowWe propose using a discounted version of a convex combination of the log-likelihood with the corresponding expected log-likelihood such that when they are maximized they yield a filter, predictor and smoother for time series. This paper then focuses on working out the implications of this in the case of the canonical exponential family. The results are simple exact filters, predictors and smoothers with linear recursions. A theory for these models is developed and the models are illustrated on simulated and real data. |
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| EvoTSC: Evolving Feature Learning Models for Time Series Classification via Genetic Programming | 2026-04-28 | ShowTime series classification is an important analytical task across diverse domains. However, its practical application is often hindered by the scarcity of labeled data and the requirement for substantial computational resources. To address these challenges, this paper proposes EvoTSC, a novel genetic programming approach designed to automatically evolve lightweight feature learning models for time series classification. The core of EvoTSC is a carefully designed multi-layer program structure that strategically embeds diverse forms of prior expert knowledge into the evolutionary process, effectively guiding the search toward operations known to be highly effective for time series analysis. To mitigate the common overfitting problem in time series classification, a tailored Pareto tournament selection strategy is proposed to favor models that perform consistently well across varying training data subsets, promoting the discovery of highly generalizable models. Extensive experiments conducted on univariate time series classification datasets demonstrate that EvoTSC significantly outperforms eleven benchmark methods in most comparisons. Further analyses verify the contribution of each component and the resource efficiency of the evolved models. |
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| DCD: Decomposition-based Causal Discovery from Autocorrelated and Non-Stationary Temporal Data | 2026-04-28 | ShowMultivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation. Existing causal discovery methods typically operate on raw observations, making them vulnerable to spurious edges and misattributed temporal dependencies. We introduce a decomposition-based causal discovery framework that separates each time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components and performs component-specific causal analysis. Trend components are assessed using stationarity tests, seasonal components using kernel-based dependence measures, and residual components using constraint-based causal discovery. The resulting component-level graphs are integrated into a unified multi-scale causal structure. This approach isolates long- and short-range causal effects, reduces spurious associations, and improves interpretability. Across extensive synthetic benchmarks and real-world climate data, our framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation. |
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| Feature Anchors for Time-Series Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition | 2026-04-28 | ShowWearable Human Activity Recognition (HAR) still lacks a representation that is both explicit and adaptable. Handcrafted time-series features (TSFs) capture meaningful motion statistics and remain competitive on standard benchmarks, but they are usually used as fixed preprocessing outputs. Deep models learn adaptable representations directly from raw signals, but those representations are typically latent and difficult to inspect. We address this gap by treating handcrafted TSFs as feature anchors: explicit intermediate representations that remain inside the model and are adjusted by neural context instead of being discarded. We propose the Temporal Conditioning Network for Feature Anchors (TCNet), which extracts handcrafted anchors, encodes complementary time-domain and frequency-domain context from raw IMU windows, and predicts context-conditioned scale, bias, and gating parameters to modulate anchor groups directly in feature space. This design keeps anchor semantics visible while allowing the representation to adapt to the classification objective. Across five HAR benchmarks, TCNet achieves 70.2% mF1 on USC-HAD, 85.1% mF1 on Daphnet, 93.9% mF1 on MHealth, and 94.5% mF1 on PAMAP2. Relative to rTsfNet, it improves by 4.5 points on USC-HAD, 14.6 points on Daphnet, and 6.5 points on MHealth. Ablations show that the gains come primarily from anchor guidance rather than simple branch fusion, and feature-space analyses indicate that several discriminative TSF families are not reliably accessible in standard latent representations. These results suggest that, for HAR, handcrafted TSFs are most useful when they remain explicit and adaptable within the model. The code is available at: https://github.com/ni-x-lab/TCNet-har |
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| Density-valued VAR Models with Latent Factors | 2026-04-28 | ShowWe propose a density-valued vector autoregressive model with latent factors for multivariate time series of density functions. Motivated by weekly regional distributions of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values in Brazil, we study their distributional dynamics across regions. The Ct value is the number of amplification cycles required for the viral signal to cross a detection threshold (lower Ct values correspond to higher viral load). We estimate each regional density by a B-spline mixture, mapping the mixture weights to a Euclidean space by a generalized logit transform equipped with an isometric inner product, and model the transformed series by a cross-regional VAR with latent factors. This decomposition allows for the separation between strong common movements and directed idiosyncratic dynamics. Directed edges are identified from the idiosyncratic VAR component using one-sided tests with Benjamini--Yekutieli false discovery rate control. Simulations show that increasing the number of estimated factors does not mechanically eliminate genuine idiosyncratic dependence; rather, it mainly removes spuriously detected edges driven by common factor movements. In the real-world data application, the full sample yields only a weak directed network, whereas a substantial network emerges once the first six months are excluded and the density prior is kept weak. The estimated links suggest directed predictive relations from the northern region toward southeastern metropolitan areas. |
61 pa...61 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables |
| Subsample-Based Estimation under Dynamic Contamination | 2026-04-27 | ShowSubsample-based estimation is a standard tool for achieving robustness to outliers in econometric models. This paper shows that, in dynamic time series settings, such procedures are fundamentally invalid under contamination, even under oracle knowledge of contamination locations. The key issue is that contamination propagates through the model's residual filter and distorts the estimation criterion itself. As a result, removing contaminated observations does not, in general, restore the uncontaminated objective or ensure consistency. We characterise this failure as a structural incompatibility between pointwise subsampling and residual propagation. To address it, we propose a propagation-compatible transformation of index sets, formalised through a patch removal operator that removes the residual footprint of contamination. Under suitable conditions, the proposed operator leaves the estimator asymptotically unchanged under the uncontaminated model, while restoring consistency for the clean-data parameter under contamination. The results apply to a broad class of residual-based estimators and show that valid subsample-based estimation in dynamic models requires explicit control of residual propagation. |
44 pa...44 pages, 2 figures, 6 tables, 1 algorithm. Code available at https://github.com/yukai-yang/Robust_Experiments |
| Simultaneous Inference for Time Series Functional Linear Regression | 2026-04-27 | ShowWe consider the problem of joint simultaneous confidence band (JSCB) construction for regression coefficient functions of time series scalar-on-function linear regression when the regression model is estimated by roughness penalization approach with flexible choices of orthonormal basis functions. A simple and unified multiplier bootstrap methodology is proposed for the JSCB construction which is shown to achieve the correct coverage probability asymptotically. Furthermore, the JSCB is asymptotically robust to inconsistently estimated standard deviations of the model. The proposed methodology is applied to a time series data set of electricity market to visually investigate and formally test the overall regression relationship as well as perform model validation. |
57 pages |
| Coupled Supply and Demand Forecasting in Platform Accommodation Markets | 2026-04-27 | ShowTourism demand forecasting is methodologically mature, but it typically treats accommodation supply as fixed or exogenous. In platform-mediated short-term rentals, supply is elastic, decision-driven, and co-evolves with demand through pricing, information design, and interventions. I reframe the core issue as endogenous stock-out censoring: realized booked nights satisfy B_{k,t} <= min(D_{k,t}, S_{k,t}), so booking models that ignore supply learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile under policy changes and supply shocks. This narrated review synthesizes work from tourism forecasting, revenue management, two-sided market economics, and Bayesian time-series methods; develops a three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention); and illustrates the identification failure with a toy simulation. I conclude with a focused research agenda for jointly forecasting supply, demand, and their compositions. |
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| Contrast-Enhanced Gating in GRUs for Robust Low-Data Sequence Learning | 2026-04-27 | ShowActivation functions govern how recurrent networks regulate and transmit information across temporal dependencies. Despite advances in sequence modelling, gated recurrent units (GRUs) still depend on the standard sigmoid and tanh nonlinearities, which can produce weak gate separation and unstable learning, particularly when training data are limited. We introduce squared sigmoid-tanh (SST), a parameter-free activation that squares the gate nonlinearity to increase contrast between near-zero- and high-activations, thereby promoting sharper information filtering during GRU updates. We incorporate SST into GRU gating and evaluate it across low-data settings spanning sign language recognition, human activity recognition, and time-series forecasting and classification. Across tasks, SST-GRU consistently surpasses standard sigmoid/tanh GRU, with the largest improvements observed in the smallest-data domains, while adding negligible computational cost. We further examine gate activation statistics and training dynamics, showing that SST improves training stability, which aligns with its performance gains in data-scarce settings. SST is a parameter-free modification that complements more complex architectural advances by improving gating selectivity in low-data sequence learning. |
43rd ...43rd The IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR 2026) |
| Independent-Component-Based Encoding Models of Brain Activity During Story Comprehension | 2026-04-27 | ShowEncoding models provide a powerful framework for linking continuous stimulus features to neural activity; however, traditional voxelwise approaches are limited by measurement noise, inter-subject variability, and redundancy arising from spatially correlated voxels encoding overlapping neural signals. Here, we propose an independent component (IC)-based encoding framework that dissociates stimulus-driven and noise-driven signals in fMRI data. We decompose continuous fMRI data from naturalistic story listening into ICs using one subset of the data, and train encoding models on independent data to predict IC time series from large language model representations of linguistic input. Across subjects, a subset of ICs exhibited consistently high predictivity. These ICs were spatially and temporally consistent across subjects and included cognitive networks known to respond during story listening (auditory and language). Auditory component time series were strongly correlated with acoustic stimulus features, highlighting the interpretability of identified component time series. Components identified as noise or motion-related artifacts by ICA-AROMA showed uniformly poor predictive performance, confirming that highly predicted components reflect genuine stimulus-related neural signals rather than confounds. Overall, IC-based encoding models enable analyses at the level of functional networks, accommodating the variability in network locations across individuals and providing interpretable results that are easy to compare across subjects. |
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| VEHRON: A Configuration-Driven BEV Simulation Framework for Subsystem-Level Studies | 2026-04-27 | ShowIn practical early-stage battery-electric vehicle studies, analysis workflows may become fragmented across spreadsheets, notebooks, and project-specific scripts, making reuse, audit, and extension harder. VEHRON is an open-source Python framework for a deterministic, traceable workflow built around prescribed-speed longitudinal simulation of battery-electric vehicles using validated YAML configuration, packaged drive-cycle resources, interchangeable subsystem models, and auditable case outputs. VEHRON currently runs as a command-line workflow in which a vehicle definition and a testcase definition are combined to execute a simulation, emit a flat time series, and write a case package containing copied inputs, resolved configuration, summary metadata, and standard plots. Architecturally, VEHRON is organized around a small simulation engine, a shared state bus, a registry of model selections, schema-based configuration loading, and extension points for custom battery and HVAC models loaded from external Python files. VEHRON currently focuses on battery-electric longitudinal simulation with low-order battery, thermal, auxiliary-load, and HVAC models. This paper explains how VEHRON is structured, how it is used, which models it implements, and where its present limits lie. Source code is available at https://github.com/vehron-dev/vehron, with archived release metadata recorded under DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19820111. |
12 pa...12 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables; software paper |
| Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting | 2026-04-27 | ShowEnergy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org. |
6 pag...6 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Submitted to the European Electricity Markets (EEM) conference |
| Information bottleneck for learning the phase space of dynamics from high-dimensional experimental data | 2026-04-27 | ShowIdentifying the dynamical state variables of a system from high-dimensional observations is a central problem across physical sciences. The challenge is that the state variables are not directly observable and must be inferred from raw high-dimensional data without supervision. Here we introduce DySIB (Dynamical Symmetric Information Bottleneck) as a method to learn low-dimensional representations of time-series data by maximizing predictive mutual information between past and future observation windows while penalizing representation complexity. This objective operates entirely in latent space and avoids reconstruction of the observations. We apply DySIB to an experimental video dataset of a physical pendulum, where the underlying state space is known. The method, with hyperparameters of the learning architecture set self-consistently by the data, recovers a two-dimensional representation that matches the dimensionality, topology, and geometry of the pendulum phase space, with the learned coordinates aligning smoothly with the canonical angle and angular velocity. These results demonstrate, on a well-characterized experimental system, that predictive information in latent space can be used to recover interpretable dynamical coordinates directly from high-dimensional data. |
12 pa...12 pages including references, 7 figures, 4 appendix pages with 4 appendix figures |
| Fisher Information and Dynamical Sampling I | 2026-04-27 | ShowInformation theory is a powerful framework to capture aspects of dynamical systems with multiple degrees of freedom. Mathematically, the dynamics can be represented as a continuous curve |
41 pages, 17 figures |
| A Hierarchical Self-Consistent Regularization Approach to Satellite Image Time Series Classification | 2026-04-27 | ShowDeep learning has become increasingly important in remote sensing image classification due to its ability to extract semantic information from complex data. Classification tasks often include predefined label hierarchies that represent the semantic relationships among classes. However, these hierarchies are frequently overlooked, and most approaches focus only on fine-grained classification schemes. In this paper, we present a novel Semantics-Aware Hierarchical Consensus (SAHC) approach to learn hierarchical features and relationships by integrating hierarchy-specific classification heads within a deep network architecture, each specialized in different degrees of class granularity. The proposed approach employs trainable hierarchy matrices, which guide the network through the learning of the hierarchical structure in a self-consistent manner. Furthermore, we introduce a hierarchical consensus mechanism to ensure aligned probability distributions across different hierarchical levels. This mechanism acts as a weighted ensemble being able to effectively leverage the inherent structure of the hierarchical classification task. The proposed SAHC method is evaluated on two benchmark datasets with different degrees of hierarchical complexity on different tasks, considering varying spectral and spatial resolutions. Experimental results show both the effectiveness of the proposed approach in guiding network learning and the robustness of the hierarchical consensus for remote sensing image classification tasks. The codes will be released at https://github.com/rslab-unitrento/sahc. |
15 pages, 8 figures |
| AsyncShield: A Plug-and-Play Edge Adapter for Asynchronous Cloud-based VLA Navigation | 2026-04-27 | ShowWhile Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have been demonstrated possessing strong zero-shot generalization for robot control, their massive parameter sizes typically necessitate cloud-based deployment. However, cloud deployment introduces network jitter and inference latency, which can induce severe spatiotemporal misalignment in mobile navigation under continuous displacement, so that the stale intents expressed in past ego frames may become spatially incorrect in the current frame and lead to collisions. To address this issue, we propose AsyncShield, a plug-and-play asynchronous control framework. AsyncShield discards traditional black-box time-series prediction in favor of a deterministic physical white-box spatial mapping. By maintaining a temporal pose buffer and utilizing kinematic transformations, the system accurately converts temporal lag into spatial pose offsets to restore the VLA's original geometric intent. To balance intent restoration fidelity and physical safety, the edge adaptation is formulated as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). Solved via the PPO-Lagrangian algorithm, a reinforcement learning adapter dynamically trades off between tracking the VLA intent and responding to high-frequency LiDAR obstacle avoidance hard constraints. Furthermore, benefiting from a standardized universal sub-goal interface, domain randomization, and perception-level adaptation via Collision Radius Inflation, AsyncShield operates as a lightweight, plug-and-play module. Simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate that, without fine-tuning any cloud-based foundation models, the framework exhibits zero-shot and robust generalization capabilities, effectively improving the success rate and physical safety of asynchronous navigation. |
9 pag...9 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables |
| Back to Repair: A Minimal Denoising Network for Time Series Anomaly Detection | 2026-04-27 | ShowWe introduce JuRe (Just Repair), a minimal denoising network for time series anomaly detection that exposes a central finding: architectural complexity is unnecessary when the training objective correctly implements the manifold-projection principle. JuRe consists of a single depthwise-separable convolutional residual block with hidden dimension 128, trained to repair corrupted time series windows and scored at inference by a fixed, parameter-free structural discrepancy function. Despite using no attention, no latent variable, and no adversarial component, JuRe ranks second on the TSB-AD multivariate benchmark (AUC-PR 0.404, 180 series, 17 datasets) and second on the UCR univariate archive by AUC-PR (0.198, 250 series), leading all neural baselines on AUC-PR and VUS-PR. Component ablation on TSB-AD identifies training-time corruption as the dominant factor ($Δ$AUC-PR |
9 pag...9 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables |
| End-to-End Learning for Partially-Observed Time Series with PyPOTS | 2026-04-27 | ShowPartially-observed time series (POTS) is ubiquitous in real-world applications, yet most existing toolchains separate missing-value handling from downstream learning, which limits reproducibility and overall performance. This tutorial introduces PyPOTS, an open-source Python ecosystem for end-to-end data mining and machine learning on POTS. We present practical workflows spanning missingness simulation, data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation across core tasks, including imputation, forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection. The tutorial consists of two parts: Part I emphasizes hands-on application for practitioners through unified APIs and benchmark-oriented experiments. Part II targets developers and researchers, focusing on extending PyPOTS with custom models, domain-specific constraints, and contribution-ready engineering practices. Participants will gain both conceptual understanding and implementation experience for building robust, transparent, and reusable POTS pipelines in research and production settings. PyPOTS is publicly available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/PyPOTS |
Accepted by KDD 2026 |
| Neyman Jackknife: Design-Based Variance Estimation for Causal Inference under Interference | 2026-04-27 | ShowWe propose a framework, the Neyman Jackknife, for conservative variance estimation in finite-population causal inference under interference. Our approach provides a general, flexible blueprint that enables conservative variance estimation whenever we are able to recompute our target estimator with some treatment assignments omitted. In classical settings, our approach recovers estimators closely related to the Neyman estimator under SUTVA and the Newey-West HAC variance estimator for time series. Numerical experiments suggest that our general-purpose framework yields variance estimators that can match or even surpass the performance of baselines that were purpose-built for specific applications. |
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| Hindsight Preference Optimization for Financial Time Series Advisory | 2026-04-27 | ShowTime series models predict numbers; decision-makers need advisory -- directional signals with reasoning, actionable suggestions, and risk management. Training language models for such predictive advisory faces a fundamental challenge: quality depends on outcomes unknown at prediction time. We bridge two ideas from reinforcement learning -- using information unavailable during execution to retrospectively generate training signal, and preference alignment -- and propose Hindsight Preference Optimization: observed outcomes let an LLM judge rank candidate advisories on dimensions that scalar metrics cannot capture, producing preference pairs for DPO without human annotation. We apply this to Vision-Language-Model-based predictive advisories on S&P 500 equity time series, demonstrated by a 4B model outperforming its 235B teacher on both accuracy and advisory quality. |
Accep...Accepted at ICLR 2026 TSALM Workshop |
| DecompKAN: Decomposed Patch-KAN for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-27 | ShowAccurate time series forecasting in scientific domains such as climate modeling, physiological monitoring, and energy systems benefits from both competitive predictions and model transparency. This work proposes DecompKAN, a lightweight attention-free architecture that combines trend-residual decomposition, channel-wise patching, learned instance normalization, and B-spline Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) edge functions. Each KAN edge learns an explicit, inspectable 1D scalar function over learned patch-embedding coordinates that can be directly visualized. On standard benchmarks, DecompKAN achieves best or tied-best MSE on 15 of 32 dataset-horizon combinations among selected published baselines, and achieves best or tied-best MSE on 20 of 36 comparisons under a controlled same-recipe evaluation across 9 datasets including the physiological PPG-DaLiA benchmark. The architecture shows particular strength on datasets with smooth temporal dynamics (Solar -17%, ECL -10% vs. iTransformer, Weather) and physiological time series. Visualization of learned edge functions reveals qualitatively different latent nonlinearities across domains. Ablation analysis shows that the architectural pipeline (decomposition, patching, normalization) drives performance more than the choice of nonlinear layer, while the KAN formulation enables inspection of learned latent transformations. |
15 pa...15 pages, 6 figures, 8 tables. Preprint; under review |
| Context-Aware Hospitalization Forecasting Evaluations for Decision Support using LLMs | 2026-04-27 | ShowMedical and public health experts must make real-time resource decisions, such as expanding hospital bed capacity, based on projected hospitalization trends during large-scale healthcare disruptions (e.g., operational failures or pandemics). Forecasting models can assist in this task by analyzing large volumes of resource-related data at the facility level, but they must be reliable for decision-making under real-world data conditions. Recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can incorporate richer forms of context into numerical forecasting. Whereas traditional models rely primarily on temporal context (i.e., past observations), LLMs can also leverage non-temporal public health context such as demographic, geographic, and population-level features. However, it remains unclear how these models should be used to produce stable or decision-relevant predictions in real-world healthcare settings. To evaluate how LLMs can be effectively used in this setting, we evaluate three approaches across 60 counties with low-,mid-, and high-hospitalization intensities in the United States: direct LLM-based forecasting, classical time-series models, and a context-augmented hybrid pipeline (HybridARX) that incorporates LLM-derived signals into structured models. Because the goal is operational decision-making rather than error minimization alone, we evaluate performance with bias and lead-lag alignment in addition to standard forecasting metrics. Our results show that HybridARX improves over classical ARX by yielding more stable and better-calibrated forecasts, particularly when incorporating noisy contextual signals into structured time-series models. These findings suggest that, in non-stationary healthcare resource forecasting, LLMs are most useful when embedded within structured hybrid models. |
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| Towards Localizing Conversation Partners using Head Motion | 2026-04-27 | ShowMany individuals struggle to understand conversation partners in noisy settings, particularly amid background speakers or due to hearing impairments. Emerging wearables like smartglasses offer a transformative opportunity to enhance speech from conversation partners. Crucial to this is identifying the direction in which the user wants to listen, which we refer to as the user's acoustic zones of interest. While current spatial audio-based methods can resolve the direction of vocal input, they are agnostic to listening preferences and have limited functionality in noisy settings with interfering speakers. To address this, behavioral cues are needed to actively infer a user's acoustic zones of interest. We explore the effectiveness of head-orienting behavior, captured by Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) on smartglasses, as a modality for localizing these zones in seated conversations. We introduce HALo, a head-orientation-based acoustic zone localization network that leverages smartglasses' IMUs to non-invasively infer auditory zones of interest corresponding to conversation partner locations. By integrating an a priori estimate of the number of conversation partners, our approach yields a 21% performance improvement over existing methods. We complement this with CoCo, which classifies the number of conversation partners using only IMU data, achieving 0.74 accuracy and a 35% gain over rule-based and generic time-series baselines. We discuss practical considerations for feature extraction and inference and provide qualitative analyses over extended sessions. We also demonstrate a minimal end-to-end speech enhancement system, showing that head-orientation-based localization offers clear advantages in extremely noisy settings with multiple conversation partners. |
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| #MakeBeefGreatAgain: A Cross-Platform Analysis of Early #MAHA Discourse | 2026-04-26 | ShowMake America Healthy Again (MAHA) is a health-related campaign slogan proposed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and later incorporated into the political coalition of President Trump. While #MAHA quickly circulated beyond the campaign itself and became a prominent hashtag for public discussion, it remains unclear whether this public discourse reflected, reshaped, or diverged from the stated agenda of the MAHA campaign. This study presents a large-scale, cross-platform analysis of early #MAHA public discourse between September 2024 and January 2025, using the framework of Agenda-Melding Theory. Drawing on 41,819 #MAHA-related posts, this study combines structural topic modeling, interrupted time-series analysis, and AI-assisted data annotation to examine the thematic structure and temporal dynamics. The most prominent finding is the substantial disconnect between #MAHA public discourse and the stated MAHA agenda: 81.3% of posts did not engage any of the five campaign priorities of the MAHA campaign. There were also pronounced cross-platform differences, with online platforms clustering into three broad discourse environments: (a) grassroots partisan-support spaces, (b) informational sources, and (c) health-focused spaces. #MAHA functioned less as a unified campaign agenda than as a symbolic frame interpreted differently across platforms. More broadly, this study provides useful empirical insight into how campaign slogans are reinterpreted and how public agendas are formed, amplified, and transformed in the fragmented digital environments. |
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| Forecasting Commencing Enrolments Under Data Sparsity: A Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models Framework for Higher Education Planning | 2026-04-26 | ShowEffective resource allocation in higher education depends on reliable enrolment forecasts, yet institutional planners frequently face data series disrupted by structural shifts. This paper investigates whether zero-shot Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) can provide rigorous decision support for annual enrolment forecasting under severe data sparsity. We benchmark multiple TSFMs against classical operational baselines using an expanding-window backtest that mirrors decision-time constraints. To capture environmental shifts without look-ahead bias, we introduce a leakage-safe covariate protocol that integrates feature-engineered Google Trends with the Institutional Operating Conditions Index (IOCI), a transferable regime measure extracted from historical narrative evidence. Our evaluation demonstrates that covariate-conditioned TSFMs are competitive with classical methods and can improve accuracy without requiring bespoke institutional training. However, the operational benefits depend on cohort characteristics and covariate design. This study provides an auditable and transferable forecasting protocol for operational researchers and university administrators, helping institutions determine when context-aware forecasting adds practical value under limited data and structural instability. |
30 pa...30 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables |
| Parallel Two-Stage Approach for Joint Symbolic Approximation of Time Series | 2026-04-26 | ShowAs time-series applications grow larger, there is increasing demand for symbolic representations that are compact, accurate, and scalable across many signals and computing resources. Current ABBA-based symbolic approximation methods produce high-quality, shape-preserving representations, but they handle each time series separately and sequentially. This means they do not ensure consistent symbols across different series and cannot fully exploit modern multicore systems and distributed-memory systems. This paper presents a joint symbolic time-series approximation method for large-scale time series. The proposed method decouples local compression from global digitization: (i) time series are partitioned into independent domains that can be compressed in parallel, and (ii) the resulting pieces are digitized using a shared global dictionary. To further improve scalability, we introduce a two-stage parallel digitization scheme, in which aggregation is first performed locally and then merged globally without requiring a full-data reassignment step. Extensive experiments on time-series datasets and large synthetic benchmarks show that our approach maintains competitive reconstruction quality while substantially reducing runtime. These results show that joint symbolic approximation can serve as an efficient, high-level parallel tool for analyzing large-scale temporal data. |
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| Time-Series Forecasting in Safety-Critical Environments: An EU-AI-Act-Compliant Open-Source Package / Zeitreihenprognose in sicherheitskritischen Umgebungen: Ein KI-VO-konformes Open-Source-Paket | 2026-04-26 | ShowWith spotforecast2-safe we present an integrated Compliance-by-Design approach to Python-based point forecasting of time series in safety-critical environments. A review of the relevant open-source tooling shows that existing compliance solutions operate consistently outside of the library to be used - e.g. as scanners, templates, or runtime layers. spotforecast2-safe takes the inverse approach and anchors the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the EU AI Act, in German: KI-VO), of IEC 61508, of the ISA/IEC 62443 standards series, and of the Cyber Resilience Act within the library: in application-programming-interface contracts, persistence formats, and continuous-integration gates. The approach is operationalised by four non-negotiable code-development rules (zero dead code, deterministic processing, fail-safe handling, minimal dependencies) together with the corresponding process rules (model card, executable docstrings, CI workflows, Common-Platform-Enumeration (CPE) identifier, REUSE-conformant licensing, release pipeline). Interactive visualisation, hyperparameter tuning and automated machine learning (AutoML), as well as deep-learning and large-language-model backends are deliberately excluded, because each of these components either enlarges the attack surface, introduces non-determinism, or impairs reproducibility. A bidirectional traceability matrix maps every regulatory provision onto the corresponding mechanism in the code; an end-to-end example of European-market electricity generation, transmission, and consumption forecasting demonstrates the application. The package is open-source and available under Affero General Public License (AGPL) 3.0-or-later. |
Bilin...Bilingual twin paper: English version first, German original below (91 pages total). Single shared bibliography |
| Multiple-group (Controlled) Interrupted Time Series Analysis with Higher-Order Autoregressive Errors: A Simulation Study Comparing Newey-West and Prais-Winsten Methods | 2026-04-26 | ShowBackground: Multiple group controlled interrupted time series analysis (MG-ITSA) is widely used to evaluate healthcare interventions. Prior studies compared ordinary least squares with Newey-West standard errors (OLS-NW) and Prais-Winsten (PW) regression under first order autoregressive (AR1) errors, but performance under higher order autocorrelation is unclear. Recent extensions of PW to AR(k) processes allow such comparisons. Methods: We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation using an MG-ITSA model with four control units. Data were generated under AR2 and AR3 error structures representing mild, oscillatory, and highly persistent autocorrelation across series lengths from 10 to 100 time points and varying effect sizes. Treatment effects were defined as difference in differences in level and trend. We evaluated power, 95 percent confidence interval coverage, type I error, percent bias, root mean squared error, and empirical standard errors. Sensitivity analyses examined alternative designs. Results: Both methods produced approximately unbiased estimates. OLS-NW showed higher power but inflated type I error and poor coverage, especially with higher AR order and longer series. Under highly persistent autocorrelation, OLS-NW coverage fell to 45 to 50 percent at 100 time points, while PW maintained 91 to 94 percent coverage. Type I error for OLS-NW rose to 50 to 57 percent. PW showed power advantages in some settings. Conclusions: The tradeoff between power and valid inference seen under AR1 errors worsens with higher order autocorrelation. The apparent power advantage of OLS-NW reflects inflated false positives. PW provides more reliable inference and is preferred for hypothesis testing and error control. |
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| Model Selection for Unit-root Time Series with Many Predictors | 2026-04-26 | ShowThis paper studies model selection for general unit-root time series, including the case with many exogenous predictors. We propose a new model selection algorithm, FHTD, that leverages forward stepwise regression (FSR), a high-dimensional information criterion (HDIC), a backward elimination method based on HDIC, and a data-driven thresholding (DDT) approach. Under some mild assumptions that allow for unknown locations and multiplicities of the characteristic roots on the unit circle of the time series and conditional heteroscedasticity in the predictors and errors, we establish the sure screening property of FSR and the selection consistency of FHTD. Our theoretical analysis relies on two novel technical contributions, namely a functional central limit theorem for multivariate linear processes and a uniform lower bound for the minimum eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrices, both of which are of independent interest. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical properties and show the superior performance of FHTD in model selection. We apply the proposed FHTD to model U.S. monthly housing starts and unemployment data, showcasing its practical utility. |
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| Beyond the Final Label: Exploiting the Untapped Potential of Classification Histories in Astronomical Light Curve Analysis | 2026-04-26 | ShowThe Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will generate a massive collection of time series (light curves) of the measured flux of transient and variable astronomical objects. With each new flux observation, light curve classifiers need to generate updated probability distributions over candidate classes, which will then be shared with the global community for the purpose of identifying interesting targets for follow-up observations as well as less time-sensitive analysis applications. Using the synthetic light curves and classification results of participating classifiers from the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC), we investigate a novel framework to enhance existing light curve classifications by incorporating their classification histories and the temporal evolution of these histories. To demonstrate the potential of this approach, we introduce a model that combines a recurrent neural network and an additive attention module, which shows improved classification accuracy and more balanced precision-recall performance compared to existing classifiers from the challenge. Furthermore, at this stage, most, if not all, of the existing classifiers are evaluated by their final classification results on complete light curves; we propose new metrics that evaluate the stability, accuracy, and early classification performance of a classifier's predictions when using limited data by considering the Wasserstein distance between the temporally evolving classification probability distributions. Our metrics offer a more comprehensive perspective for model assessment by supplementing classical methods such as the confusion matrix and precision-recall. |
26 pa...26 pages, 10 figures; prepared for submission to ApJ |
| From Noisy Historical Maps to Time-Series Oil Palm Mapping Without Annotation in Malaysia and Indonesia (2020-2024) | 2026-04-26 | ShowAccurate monitoring of oil palm plantations is critical for balancing economic development with environmental conservation in Southeast Asia. However, existing plantation maps often suffer from low spatial resolution and a lack of recent temporal coverage, impeding effective surveillance of rapid land-use changes. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework to generate 10-meter resolution oil palm plantation maps for Indonesia and Malaysia from 2020 to 2024, utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery without requiring new manual annotations. To address the resolution mismatch between coarse 100-meter historical labels and 10-meter imagery, we employ a U-Net architecture optimized with Determinant-based Mutual Information (DMI). This approach effectively mitigates the influence of label noise. We validated our method against 2,058 manually verified points, achieving overall accuracies of 70.64%, 63.53%, and 60.06% for the years 2020, 2022, and 2024, respectively. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that oil palm coverage in the region peaked in 2022 before experiencing a decline in 2024. Furthermore, land cover transition analysis highlights a concerning trajectory of plantation expansion into flooded vegetation areas, despite a general stabilization in rotations with other crop types. These high-resolution maps provide essential data for monitoring sustainability commitments and deforestation dynamics in the region, and the generated datasets are made publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17768444. |
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| Fixed-Reservoir vs Variational Quantum Architectures for Chaotic Dynamics: Benchmarking QRC and QPINN on the Lorenz System | 2026-04-26 | ShowDeploying quantum machine learning on NISQ devices requires architectures where training overhead does not negate computational advantages. We systematically compare two quantum approaches for chaotic time-series prediction on the Lorenz system: a variational Quantum Physics-Informed Neural Network (QPINN) and a Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC) framework utilizing a fixed transverse-field Ising Hamiltonian. Under matched resources ( |
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| Autocorrelation Reintroduces Spectral Bias in KANs for Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-26 | ShowExisting theory suggests that Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) can overcome the spectral bias commonly observed in neural networks under the assumption that inputs are statistically independent. However, this assumption does not hold in time series forecasting (TSF), where inputs are lagged observations with strong temporal autocorrelation. Through theoretical analysis and empirical validation, we obtain an unexpected finding: temporal autocorrelation reintroduces spectral bias in KANs, and the bias becomes increasingly pronounced as the degree of autocorrelation increases. This suggests that standard KANs may face substantial difficulties in TSF with strongly autocorrelated inputs. To address this problem, we introduce the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) to reduce the correlations among the network inputs. As expected, experimental results reveal that DCT preprocessing substantially reduces the observed low-frequency preference in TSF. This result also corroborates that the spectral bias of KANs in TSF tasks is indeed induced by the autocorrelation among input variables. |
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| Semi-Supervised Model-Free Bayesian State Estimation from Compressed Measurements | 2026-04-25 | ShowWe consider data-driven Bayesian state estimation from compressed measurements (BSCM) of a model-free process. The dimension of the temporal measurement vector is lower than that of the temporal state vector to be estimated, leading to an under-determined inverse problem. The underlying dynamical model of the state's evolution is unknown for a `model-free process.' Hence, it is difficult to use traditional model-driven methods, for example, Kalman and particle filters. Instead, we consider data-driven methods. We experimentally show that two existing unsupervised learning-based data-driven methods fail to address the BSCM problem in a model-free process. The methods are -- data-driven nonlinear state estimation (DANSE) and deep Markov model (DMM). While DANSE provides good predictive/forecasting performance to model the temporal measurement data as a time series, its unsupervised learning lacks suitable regularization for tackling the BSCM task. We then propose a semi-supervised learning approach and develop a semi-supervised learning-based DANSE method, referred to as SemiDANSE. In SemiDANSE, we use a large amount of unlabelled data along with a limited amount of labelled data, i.e., pairwise measurement-and-state data, which provides the desired regularization. Using {benchmark chaotic dynamical systems}, we {empirically} show that the data-driven SemiDANSE provides competitive state estimation performance for BSCM {using a handful of different measurement systems}, against a hybrid method called KalmanNet and two model-driven methods (extended Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter) that know the dynamical models exactly. |
14 pa...14 pages, 14 figures, under review in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing |
| Improving causal inference in interrupted time series analysis: the triple difference design | 2026-04-25 | ShowBackground: Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) is widely used to evaluate health policy and intervention effects. While multiple-group ITSA (MG-ITSA) improves causal inference by incorporating a control group, residual confounding from unmeasured time-varying factors may remain. The triple-difference interrupted time series (DDD-ITSA) design extends this approach by adding a second control group to further isolate treatment effects, but it remains underutilized and lacks formal guidance. Methods: We formalize the DDD-ITSA framework, specify the regression model, define key parameters for estimating level and trend effects, and clarify interpretation of the triple-difference estimand. We illustrate the approach using a worked example evaluating California's Proposition 99 cigarette tax and its impact on per-capita cigarette sales. Results: In the example, all groups were balanced on pre-intervention level and trend. The triple-difference estimand indicated a statistically significant annual reduction of -1.76 per-capita cigarette packs in California relative to the secondary control (P = 0.020; 95 percent CI: -3.24, -0.28), consistent with results from the primary comparison. Differences between control groups were not significant. Conclusions: DDD-ITSA strengthens causal inference when two-group comparisons may be confounded by leveraging an additional control group to remove remaining biases and assess heterogeneity. Implementation is facilitated by updates to the itsa Stata package. Careful attention to control selection, baseline balance, and autocorrelation remains essential. |
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| Consistency of Lloyd's Algorithm Under Perturbations | 2026-04-25 | ShowIn the context of unsupervised learning, Lloyd's algorithm is one of the most widely used clustering algorithms. It has inspired a plethora of work investigating the correctness of the algorithm under various settings with ground truth clusters. In particular, in 2016, Lu and Zhou have shown that the mis-clustering rate of Lloyd's algorithm on |
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| A Path Signature Framework for Detecting Creative Fatigue in Digital Advertising | 2026-04-25 | ShowThis paper introduces a signature-based framework for detecting advertising creative fatigue using path signatures, a geometric representation from rough path theory. Creative fatigue -- the degradation of creative effectiveness under repeated exposure -- is operationally important in digital marketing because delayed detection can translate directly into avoidable opportunity cost. We reframe fatigue monitoring as a geometric change detection problem: advertising performance trajectories are embedded as paths and represented by truncated (log-)signatures, enabling detection of changes in trend, volatility, and non-linear dynamics beyond simple mean or variance shifts. We further connect statistical detection to managerial decision-making via an explicit quantification of performance loss relative to a benchmark period. Because proprietary production data cannot be released, we evaluate the proposed framework on a synthetic panel dataset designed to mimic realistic impression volumes and noisy day-to-day CTR dynamics. We define observed CTR as the realised binomial rate |
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| AdaMamba: Adaptive Frequency-Gated Mamba for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting | 2026-04-25 | ShowAccurate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) requires the capture of complex long-range dependencies and dynamic periodic patterns. Recent advances in frequency-domain analysis offer a global perspective for uncovering temporal characteristics. However, real-world time series often exhibit pronounced cross-domain heterogeneity where variables that appear synchronized in the time domain can differ substantially in the frequency domain. Existing frequency-based LTSF methods often rely on implicit assumptions of cross-domain homogeneity, which limits their ability to adapt to such intricate variability. To effectively integrate frequency-domain analysis with temporal dependency learning, we propose AdaMamba, a novel framework that endogenizes adaptive and context-aware frequency analysis within the Mamba state-space update process. Specifically, AdaMamba introduces an interactive patch encoding module to capture inter-variable interaction dynamics. Then, we develop an adaptive frequency-gated state-space module that generates input-dependent frequency bases, and generalizes the conventional temporal forgetting gate into a unified time-frequency forgetting gate. This allows dynamic calibration of state transitions based on learned frequency-domain importance, while preserving Mamba's capability in modeling long-range dependencies. Extensive experiments on seven public LTSF benchmarks and two domain-specific datasets demonstrate that AdaMamba consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accu racy while maintaining competitive computational efficiency. The code of AdaMamba is available at https://github.com/XDjiang25/AdaMamba. |
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| Delta-XAI: A Unified Framework for Explaining Prediction Changes in Online Time Series Monitoring | 2026-04-25 | ShowExplaining online time series monitoring models is crucial across sensitive domains such as healthcare and finance, where temporal and contextual prediction dynamics underpin critical decisions. While recent XAI methods have improved the explainability of time series models, they mostly analyze each time step independently, overlooking temporal dependencies. This results in further challenges: explaining prediction changes is non-trivial, methods fail to leverage online dynamics, and evaluation remains difficult. To address these challenges, we propose Delta-XAI, which adapts 14 existing XAI methods through a wrapper function and introduces a principled evaluation suite for the online setting, assessing diverse aspects, such as faithfulness, sufficiency, and coherence. Experiments reveal that classical gradient-based methods, such as Integrated Gradients (IG), can outperform recent approaches when adapted for temporal analysis. Building on this, we propose Shifted Window Integrated Gradients (SWING), which incorporates past observations in the integration path to systematically capture temporal dependencies and mitigate out-of-distribution effects. Extensive experiments consistently demonstrate the effectiveness of SWING across diverse settings with respect to diverse metrics. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AITRICS/Delta-XAI. |
Accep...Accepted at ICLR 2026; Code is available at https://github.com/AITRICS/Delta-XAI |
| Predicting Time Pressure of Powered Two-Wheeler Riders for Proactive Safety Interventions | 2026-04-25 | ShowTime pressure critically influences risky maneuvers and crash proneness among powered two-wheeler riders, yet its prediction remains underexplored in intelligent transportation systems. We present a large-scale dataset of 129,000+ labeled multivariate time-series sequences from 153 rides by 51 participants under No, Low, and High Time Pressure conditions. Each sequence captures 63 features spanning vehicle kinematics, control inputs, behavioral violations, and environmental context. Our empirical analysis shows High Time Pressure induces 48% higher speeds, 36.4% greater speed variability, 58% more risky turns at intersections, 36% more sudden braking, and 50% higher rear brake forces versus No Time Pressure. To benchmark this dataset, we propose MotoTimePressure, a deep learning model combining convolutional preprocessing, dual-stage temporal attention, and Squeeze-and-Excitation feature recalibration, achieving 91.53% accuracy and 98.93% ROC AUC, outperforming six baselines, with only 172K parameters, 0.66 MB model size, and 0.21 ms inference on CPU. Since time pressure cannot be directly measured in real time, we demonstrate its utility in collision prediction and threshold determination. Using MTPS-predicted time pressure as a feature improves collision risk accuracy for both Informer (91.25% to 93.51%) and TimesNet (92.10% to 93.90%), approaching oracle performance (93.72% and 94.06%, respectively). Thresholded time pressure states capture rider cognitive stress and enable proactive ITS interventions, including adaptive alerts, haptic feedback, V2I signaling, and speed guidance, supporting safer two-wheeler mobility under the Safe System Approach. |
13 pages |
| Matrix Profile for Time-Series Anomaly Detection: A Reproducible Open-Source Benchmark on TSB-AD | 2026-04-24 | ShowMatrix Profile (MP) methods are an interpretable and scalable family of distance-based methods for time-series anomaly detection, but strong benchmark performance still depends on design choices beyond a vanilla nearest-neighbor profile. This technical report documents an open-source Matrix Profile for Anomaly Detection (MMPAD) submission to TSB-AD, a benchmark that covers both univariate and multivariate time series. The submitted system combines pre-sorted multidimensional aggregation, efficient exclusion-zone-aware k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) retrieval for repeated anomalies, and moving-average post-processing. To serve as a reproducible reference for MP-based anomaly detection on TSB-AD, we detail the released implementation, the hyperparameter settings for the univariate and multivariate tracks, and the corresponding benchmark results. We further analyze how the system performs on the aggregate leaderboard and across specific dataset characteristics.The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/mcyeh/mmpad_tsb. |
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| Liquid Neural Network Models for Natural Gas Spot Price Time-Series Forecasting | 2026-04-24 | ShowNatural gas is undoubtedly an essential component of the global energy system. Accurate short-term forecasting of natural gas price is challenging due to pronounced volatility driven by seasonal demand patterns, geopolitical developments, and shifting macroeconomic conditions. The nonlinear dynamics and frequent regime changes can limit the effectiveness of traditional time-series models. In this study, we explore the use of Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs) for short-horizon forecasting of the Henry Hub spot price, a primary benchmark for pricing. LNNs are designed to adapt continuously to evolving temporal patterns through dynamic internal state updates, making them well suited for nonstationary price behavior. By improving forecast accuracy in volatile market conditions, this work aims to reduce uncertainty and enhance decision support across energy trading and power market applications. |
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| Deep Clustering for Climate: Analyzing Teleconnections through Learned Categorical States | 2026-04-24 | ShowUnderstanding and representing complex climate variability is essential for both scientific analysis and predictive modeling. However, identifying meaningful climate regimes from raw variables is challenging, as they exhibit high noise and nonlinear dependencies. In this work, we explore the use of Masked Siamese Networks to discretize climate time series into semantically rich clusters. Focusing on daily minimum and maximum temperature, we show that the resulting representations: (i) yield clusters that reflect meaningful climate states under our modeling assumptions, offering a simplified representation for downstream use; (ii) enable sampling and analysis of specific climate scenarios; and (iii) exhibit statistical associations with El Niño events, underscoring their scientific relevance. Our findings highlight the potential of self-supervised discretization as a tool for climate data analysis and open avenues for incorporating richer climate indicators in future work. |
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| Tail-robust estimation of factor-adjusted vector autoregressive models for high-dimensional time series | 2026-04-24 | ShowWe study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as well as their remaining interconnectedness using a sparse VAR model. To handle heavy tails, we propose an element-wise data truncation step followed by a two-stage estimation procedure for estimating the latent factors and the VAR parameter matrices. Assuming the existence of the |
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| Unified Taxonomy for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection using Deep Learning | 2026-04-24 | ShowThe topic of Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) has grown rapidly over the past years, with a steady rise in publications and Deep Learning (DL) models becoming the dominant paradigm. To address the lack of systematization in the field, this study introduces a novel and unified taxonomy with eleven dimensions over three parts (Input, Output and Model) for the categorization of DL-based MTSAD methods. The dimensions were established in a two-fold approach. First, they derived from a comprehensive analysis of methodological studies. Second, insights from review papers were incorporated. Furthermore, the proposed taxonomy was validated using an additional set of recent publications, providing a clear overview of methodological trends in MTSAD. Results reveal a convergence toward Transformer-based and reconstruction and prediction models, setting the foundation for emerging adaptive and generative trends. Building on and complementing existing surveys, this unified taxonomy is designed to accommodate future developments, allowing for new categories or dimensions to be added as the field progresses. This work thus consolidates fragmented knowledge in the field and provides a reference point for future research in MTSAD. |
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| Can Large Language Models Adequately Perform Symbolic Reasoning Over Time Series? | 2026-04-24 | ShowUncovering hidden symbolic laws from time series data, as an aspiration dating back to Kepler's discovery of planetary motion, remains a core challenge in scientific discovery and artificial intelligence. While Large Language Models show promise in structured reasoning tasks, their ability to infer interpretable, context-aligned symbolic structures from time series data is still underexplored. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce SymbolBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess symbolic reasoning over real-world time series across three tasks: multivariate symbolic regression, Boolean network inference, and causal discovery. Unlike prior efforts limited to simple algebraic equations, SymbolBench spans a diverse set of symbolic forms with varying complexity. We further propose a unified framework that integrates LLMs with genetic programming to form a closed-loop symbolic reasoning system, where LLMs act both as predictors and evaluators. Our empirical results reveal key strengths and limitations of current models, highlighting the importance of combining domain knowledge, context alignment, and reasoning structure to improve LLMs in automated scientific discovery. https://github.com/nuuuh/SymbolBench. |
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| Beyond Patient Invariance: Learning Cardiac Dynamics via Action-Conditioned JEPAs | 2026-04-24 | ShowSelf-supervised learning in healthcare has largely relied on invariance-based objectives, which maximize similarity between different views of the same patient. While effective for static anatomy, this paradigm is fundamentally misaligned with clinical diagnosis, as it mathematically compels the model to suppress the transient pathological changes it is intended to detect. We propose a shift towards Action-Conditioned World Models that learn to simulate the dynamics of disease progression, or Event-Conditioned. Adapting the LeJEPA framework to physiological time-series, we define pathology not as a static label, but as a transition vector acting on a patient's latent state. By predicting the future electrophysiological state of the heart given a disease onset, our model explicitly disentangles stable anatomical features from dynamic pathological forces. Evaluated on the MIMIC-IV-ECG dataset, our approach outperforms fully supervised baselines on the critical triage task. Crucially, we demonstrate superior sample efficiency: in low-resource regimes, our world model outperforms supervised learning by over 0.05 AUROC. These results suggest that modeling biological dynamics provides a dense supervision signal that is far more robust than static classification. Source code is available at https://github.com/cljosegfer/lesaude-dynamics |
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| An Interdisciplinary and Cross-Task Review on Missing Data Imputation | 2026-04-24 | ShowMissing data is a fundamental challenge in data science, significantly hindering analysis and decision-making across a wide range of disciplines, including healthcare, bioinformatics, social science, e-commerce, and industrial monitoring. Despite decades of research and numerous imputation methods, the literature remains fragmented across fields, creating a critical need for a comprehensive synthesis that connects statistical foundations with modern machine learning advances. This work systematically reviews core concepts-including missingness mechanisms, single versus multiple imputation, and different imputation goals-and examines problem characteristics across various domains. It provides a thorough categorization of imputation methods, spanning classical techniques (e.g., regression, the EM algorithm) to modern approaches like low-rank and high-rank matrix completion, deep learning models (autoencoders, GANs, diffusion models, graph neural networks), and large language models. Special attention is given to methods for complex data types, such as tensors, time series, streaming data, graph-structured data, categorical data, and multimodal data. Beyond methodology, we investigate the crucial integration of imputation with downstream tasks like classification, clustering, and anomaly detection, examining both sequential pipelines and joint optimization frameworks. The review also assesses theoretical guarantees, benchmarking resources, and evaluation metrics. Finally, we identify critical challenges and future directions, emphasizing model selection and hyperparameter optimization, the growing importance of privacy-preserving imputation via federated learning, and the pursuit of generalizable models that can adapt across domains and data types, thereby outlining a roadmap for future research. |
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| Accelerating Frequency Domain Diffusion Models with Error-Feedback Event-Driven Caching | 2026-04-24 | ShowDiffusion models achieve remarkable success in time series generation. However, slow inference limits their practical deployment. We propose E$^2$-CRF (Error-Feedback Event-Driven Cumulative Residual Feature caching) to accelerate frequency domain diffusion models. Our method exploits two structural properties: (1) spectral localization, where signal energy concentrates in low frequencies, and (2) mirror symmetry, which halves the effective frequency dimension. E$^2$-CRF uses a closed-loop error-feedback system that adaptively caches transformer KV features across diffusion steps. We trigger recomputation using event-driven residual dynamics instead of fixed schedules. Our method selectively recomputes high-energy or rapidly-changing tokens while reusing cached features for stable high-frequency components. E$^2$-CRF achieves ~2.2 speedup while maintaining sample quality. We demonstrate effectiveness on 5 datasets. Our caching strategy naturally aligns with the diffusion process's structure-to-detail progression. We include sufficient-condition error and complexity bounds under standard regularity assumptions (Appendix), alongside empirical validation. Our code is available at https://github.com/NoakLiu/FastFourierDiffusion and is also integrated in https://github.com/NoakLiu/FastCache-xDiT. |
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| A Bayesian time-varying random partition model for large spatio-temporal datasets | 2026-04-24 | ShowSpatio-temporal areal data can be seen as a collection of time series which are spatially correlated, according to a specific neighbouring structure. Motivated by a dataset on mobile phone usage in the Metropolitan area of Milan, Italy, we propose a semi-parametric hierarchical Bayesian model allowing for time-varying as well as spatial model-based clustering. Our approach incorporates the notion of regimes that describe changing patterns over work and night hours as well as weekdays/weekends. Changes across regimes are considered by means of temporal changepoint components that allow for different hierarchical structures specified across time points. The changepoints might occur within fixed time windows over the day. The model features a novel random partition prior that incorporates the desired spatial features and encourages co-clustering based on areal proximity. We explore properties of the model by way of extensive simulation studies from which we collect valuable information. Finally, we discuss the application to the motivating data, where the main goal is to spatially cluster population patterns of mobile phone usage. |
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| FeatEHR-LLM: Leveraging Large Language Models for Feature Engineering in Electronic Health Records | 2026-04-24 | ShowFeature engineering for Electronic Health Records (EHR) is complicated by irregular observation intervals, variable measurement frequencies, and structural sparsity inherent to clinical time series. Existing automated methods either lack clinical domain awareness or assume clean, regularly sampled inputs, limiting their applicability to real-world EHR data. We present \textbf{FeatEHR-LLM}, a framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate clinically meaningful tabular features from irregularly sampled EHR time series. To limit patient privacy exposure, the LLM operates exclusively on dataset schemas and task descriptions rather than raw patient records. A tool-augmented generation mechanism equips the LLM with specialized routines for querying irregular temporal data, enabling it to produce executable feature-extraction code that explicitly handles uneven observation patterns and informative sparsity. FeatEHR-LLM supports both univariate and multivariate feature generation through an iterative, validation-in-the-loop pipeline. Evaluated on eight clinical prediction tasks across four ICU datasets, our framework achieves the highest mean AUROC on 7 out of 8 tasks, with improvements of up to 6 percentage points over strong baselines. Code is available at github.com/hojjatkarami/FeatEHR-LLM. |
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| FLUID: Flow-based Unified Inference for Dynamics | 2026-04-24 | ShowBayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are fundamental yet challenging problems in many areas of science and engineering. In this work, we propose FLUID, a flow-based unified amortized inference framework for filtering and smoothing dynamics. The core idea is to encode each observation history into a fixed-dimensional summary statistic and use this shared representation to learn both a forward flow for the filtering distribution and a backward flow for the backward transition kernel. Specifically, a recurrent encoder maps each observation history to a fixed-dimensional summary statistic whose dimension does not depend on the length of the time series. Conditioned on this shared summary statistic, the forward flow approximates the filtering distribution, while the backward flow approximates the backward transition kernel. The smoothing distribution over an entire trajectory is then recovered by combining the terminal filtering distribution with the learned backward flow through the standard backward recursion. By learning the underlying temporal evolution structure, FLUID also supports extrapolation beyond the training horizon. Moreover, by coupling the two flows through shared summary statistics, FLUID induces an implicit regularization across latent state trajectories and improves trajectory-level smoothing. In addition, we develop a flow-based particle filtering variant that provides an alternative filtering procedure and enables ESS-based diagnostics when explicit model factors are available. Numerical experiments demonstrate that FLUID provides accurate approximations of both filtering distributions and smoothing paths. |
43 pages |
| Title | Date | Abstract | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSDrive: Reinforcing Driving Policies by Multi-mode Trajectory Probing with 3D Gaussian Splatting Environment | 2026-04-30 | ShowEnd-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving presents a promising approach for translating perceptual inputs directly into driving actions. However, prohibitive annotation costs and temporal data quality degradation hinder long-term real-world deployment. While combining imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) is a common strategy for policy improvement, conventional RL training relies on delayed, event-based rewards-policies learn only from catastrophic outcomes such as collisions, leading to premature convergence to suboptimal behaviors. To address these limitations, we introduce GSDrive, a framework that exploits 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) for differentiable, physics-based reward shaping in E2E driving policy improvement. Our method incorporates a flow matching-based trajectory predictor within the 3DGS simulator, enabling multi-mode trajectory probing where candidate trajectories are rolled out to assess prospective rewards. This establishes a bidirectional knowledge exchange between IL and RL by grounding reward functions in physically simulated interaction signals, offering immediate dense feedback instead of sparse catastrophic events. Evaluated on the reconstructed nuScenes dataset, our method surpasses existing simulation-based RL driving approaches in closed-loop experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/ZionGo6/GSDrive. |
initial version |
| Modeling Clinical Concern Trajectories in Language Model Agents | 2026-04-30 | ShowLarge language model (LLM) agents deployed in clinical settings often exhibit abrupt, threshold-driven behavior, offering little visibility into accumulating risk prior to escalation. In real-world care, however, clinicians act on gradually rising concern rather than instantaneous triggers. We study whether explicit state dynamics can expose such pre-escalation signals without delegating clinical authority to the agent. We introduce a lightweight agent architecture in which a memoryless clinical risk encoder is integrated over time using first- and second-order dynamics to produce a continuous escalation pressure signal. Across synthetic ward scenarios, stateless agents exhibit sharp escalation cliffs, while second-order dynamics produce smooth, anticipatory concern trajectories despite similar escalation timing. These trajectories surface sustained unease prior to escalation, enabling human-in-the-loop monitoring and more informed intervention. Our results suggest that explicit state dynamics can make LLM agents more clinically legible by revealing how long concern has been rising, not just when thresholds are crossed. |
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| Training-Free Reward-Guided Image Editing via Trajectory Optimal Control | 2026-04-30 | ShowRecent advancements in diffusion and flow-matching models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. A prominent line of research involves reward-guided guidance, which steers the generation process during inference to align with specific objectives. However, leveraging this reward-guided approach to the task of image editing, which requires preserving the semantic content of the source image while enhancing a target reward, is largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for training-free, reward-guided image editing. We formulate the editing process as a trajectory optimal control problem where the reverse process of a diffusion model is treated as a controllable trajectory originating from the source image, and the adjoint states are iteratively updated to steer the editing process. Through extensive experiments across distinct editing tasks, we demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing inversion-based training-free guidance baselines, achieving a superior balance between reward maximization and fidelity to the source image without reward hacking. |
Poste...Poster in ICLR 2026; 22 pages, 9 figures. The code is available at https://github.com/jinhojsk515/ITOC |
| Adaptive Nonlinear MPC for Trajectory Tracking of An Overactuated Tiltrotor Hexacopter | 2026-04-30 | ShowOmnidirectional micro aerial vehicles (OMAVs) are more capable of doing environmentally interactive tasks due to their ability to exert full wrenches while maintaining stable poses. However, OMAVs often incorporate additional actuators and complex mechanical structures to achieve omnidirectionality. Obtaining precise mathematical models is difficult, and the mismatch between the model and the real physical system is not trivial. The large model-plant mismatch significantly degrades overall system performance if a non-adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is used. This work presents the |
(1) E...(1) Eq. (10) sign error, inconsistent with Eq. (14). (2) Eq. (15) spurious Coriolis term (skips transport theorem). (3) typo before Eq. (21): _Bω_dot_EKF?_Bτ_dot_EKF. (4) Sec. IV comparison lacks systematic tuning and does not support its claims. (5) the open-source release at github.com/HITSZ-NRSL/omniHex will not happen |
| Frozen LLMs as Map-Aware Spatio-Temporal Reasoners for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction | 2026-04-30 | ShowLarge language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities and attracted increasing research attention in the field of autonomous driving (AD). However, safe application of LLMs on AD perception and prediction still requires a thorough understanding of both the dynamic traffic agents and the static road infrastructure. To this end, this study introduces a framework to evaluate the capability of LLMs in understanding the behaviors of dynamic traffic agents and the topology of road networks. The framework leverages frozen LLMs as the reasoning engine, employing a traffic encoder to extract spatial-level scene features from observed trajectories of agents, while a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encodes the local high-definition (HD) maps. To assess the intrinsic reasoning ability of LLMs, the extracted scene features are then transformed into LLM-compatible tokens via a reprogramming adapter. By residing the prediction burden with the LLMs, a simpler linear decoder is applied to output future trajectories. The framework enables a quantitative analysis of the influence of multi-modal information, especially the impact of map semantics on trajectory prediction accuracy, and allows seamless integration of frozen LLMs with minimal adaptation, thereby demonstrating strong generalizability across diverse LLM architectures and providing a unified platform for model evaluation. |
Accep...Accepted for publication at IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium 2026 |
| FeaXDrive: Feasibility-aware Trajectory-Centric Diffusion Planning for End-to-End Autonomous Driving | 2026-04-30 | ShowEnd-to-end diffusion planning has shown strong potential for autonomous driving, but the physical feasibility of generated trajectories remains insufficiently addressed. In particular, generated trajectories may exhibit local geometric irregularities, violate trajectory-level kinematic constraints, or deviate from the drivable area, indicating that the commonly used noise-centric formulation in diffusion planning is not yet well aligned with the trajectory space where feasibility is more naturally characterized. To address this issue, we propose FeaXDrive, a feasibility-aware trajectory-centric diffusion planning method for end-to-end autonomous driving. The core idea is to treat the clean trajectory as the unified object for feasibility-aware modeling throughout the diffusion process. Built on this trajectory-centric formulation, FeaXDrive integrates adaptive curvature-constrained training to improve intrinsic geometric and kinematic feasibility, drivable-area guidance within reverse diffusion sampling to enhance consistency with the drivable area, and feasibility-aware GRPO post-training to further improve planning performance while balancing trajectory-space feasibility. Experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark show that FeaXDrive achieves strong closed-loop planning performance while substantially improving trajectory-space feasibility. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly modeling trajectory-space feasibility in end-to-end diffusion planning and provide a step toward more reliable and physically grounded autonomous driving planners. |
22 pages, 6 figures |
| Language-Conditioned Safe Trajectory Generation for Spacecraft Rendezvous | 2026-04-29 | ShowReliable real-time trajectory generation is essential for future autonomous spacecraft. While recent progress in nonconvex guidance and control is paving the way for onboard autonomous trajectory optimization, these methods still rely on extensive expert input (e.g., waypoints, constraints, mission timelines, etc.), which limits operational scalability in complex missions such as rendezvous and proximity operations. This paper introduces SAGES (Semantic Autonomous Guidance Engine for Space), a trajectory-generation framework that translates natural-language commands into spacecraft trajectories that reflect high-level intent while respecting nonconvex constraints. Experiments in two settings (fault-tolerant proximity operations with continuous-time constraint enforcement and a free-flying robotic platform) demonstrate that SAGES reliably produces trajectories aligned with human commands, achieving over 90% semantic-behavioral consistency across diverse behavior modes. Ultimately, this work marks an initial step toward language-conditioned, constraint-aware spacecraft trajectory generation, enabling operators to interactively guide both safety and behavior through intuitive natural-language commands with reduced expert burden. Project Website: https://semantic-guidance4space.github.io/ |
42 pa...42 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to AIAA Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics |
| Global Sampling-Based Trajectory Optimization for Contact-Rich Manipulation via KernelSOS | 2026-04-29 | ShowContact-rich manipulation is challenging due to its high dimensionality, the requirement for long time horizons, and the presence of hybrid contact dynamics. Sampling-based methods have become a popular approach for this class of problems, but without explicit mechanisms for global exploration, they are susceptible to converging to poor local minima. In this paper, we introduce Global-MPPI, a unified trajectory optimization framework that integrates global exploration and local refinement. At the global level, we leverage kernel sum-of-squares optimization to identify globally promising regions of the solution space. To enable reliable performance for the non-smooth landscapes inherent to contact-rich manipulation, we introduce a graduated non-convexity strategy based on log-sum-exp smoothing, which transitions the optimization landscape from a smoothed surrogate to the original non-smooth objective. Finally, we employ the model-predictive path integral method to locally refine the solution. We evaluate Global-MPPI on high-dimensional, long-horizon contact-rich tasks, including the PushT task and dexterous in-hand manipulation. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach robustly uncovers high-quality solutions, achieving faster convergence and lower final costs compared to existing baseline methods. |
8 pages, 5 figures |
| A Dual Perspective on Synthetic Trajectory Generators: Utility Framework and Privacy Vulnerabilities | 2026-04-29 | ShowHuman mobility data are used in numerous applications, ranging from public health to urban planning. Human mobility is inherently sensitive, as it can contain information such as religious beliefs and political affiliations. Historically, it has been proposed to modify the information using techniques such as aggregation, obfuscation, or noise addition, to adequately protect privacy and eliminate concerns. As these methods come at a great cost in utility, new methods leveraging development in generative models, were introduced. The extent to which such methods answer the privacy-utility trade-off remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduced a first step towards solving it, by the introduction and application of a new framework for utility evaluation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that privacy evaluation remains a great challenge to consider and that it should be tackled through adversarial evaluation in accordance with the current EU regulation. We propose a new membership inference attack against a subcategory of generative models, even though this subcategory was deemed private due to its resistance over the trajectory user-linking problem. |
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| Benchmarks for Trajectory Safety Evaluation and Diagnosis in OpenClaw and Codex: ATBench-Claw and ATBench-Codex | 2026-04-29 | ShowAs agent systems move into increasingly diverse execution settings, trajectory-level safety evaluation and diagnosis require benchmarks that evolve with them. ATBench is a diverse and realistic agent trajectory benchmark for safety evaluation and diagnosis. This report presents ATBench-Claw and ATBench-Codex, two domain-customized extensions that carry ATBench into the OpenClaw and OpenAI Codex / Codex-runtime settings. The key adaptation mechanism is to analyze each new setting, customize the three-dimensional Safety Taxonomy over risk source, failure mode, and real-world harm, and then use that customized taxonomy to define the benchmark specification consumed by the shared ATBench construction pipeline. This extensibility matters because agent frameworks remain relatively stable at the architectural level even as their concrete execution settings, tool ecosystems, and product capabilities evolve quickly. Concretely, ATBench-Claw targets OpenClaw-sensitive execution chains over tools, skills, sessions, and external actions, while ATBench-Codex targets trajectories in the OpenAI Codex / Codex-runtime setting over repositories, shells, patches, dependencies, approvals, and runtime policy boundaries. Our emphasis therefore falls on taxonomy customization, domain-specific risk coverage, and benchmark design under a shared ATBench generation framework. |
18 pages, 3 figures |
| Enforcing Benign Trajectories: A Behavioral Firewall for Structured-Workflow AI Agents | 2026-04-29 | ShowStructured-workflow agents driven by large language models execute tool calls against sensitive external environments. We propose \codename, a telemetry-driven behavioral anomaly detection firewall. Drawing on sequence-based intrusion detection, \codename\ compiles verified benign tool-call telemetry into a parameterized deterministic finite automaton (pDFA). The model defines permitted tool sequences, sequential contexts, and parameter bounds. At runtime, a lightweight gateway enforces these boundaries via an |
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| OnSiteVRU: A High-Resolution Trajectory Dataset for High-Density Vulnerable Road Users | 2026-04-29 | ShowWith the acceleration of urbanization and the growth of transportation demands, the safety of vulnerable road users (VRUs, such as pedestrians and cyclists) in mixed traffic flows has become increasingly prominent, necessitating high-precision and diverse trajectory data to support the development and optimization of autonomous driving systems. However, existing datasets fall short in capturing the diversity and dynamics of VRU behaviors, making it difficult to meet the research demands of complex traffic environments. To address this gap, this study developed the OnSiteVRU datasets, which cover a variety of scenarios, including intersections, road segments, and urban villages. These datasets provide trajectory data for motor vehicles, electric bicycles, and human-powered bicycles, totaling approximately 17,429 trajectories with a precision of 0.04 seconds. The datasets integrate both aerial-view natural driving data and onboard real-time dynamic detection data, along with environmental information such as traffic signals, obstacles, and real-time maps, enabling a comprehensive reconstruction of interaction events. The results demonstrate that VRU_Data outperforms traditional datasets in terms of VRU density and scene coverage, offering a more comprehensive representation of VRU behavioral characteristics. This provides critical support for traffic flow modeling, trajectory prediction, and autonomous driving virtual testing. The dataset is publicly available for download at: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/zcyan2/mixed-traffic-trajectory-dataset-in-from-shanghai. |
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| From Threads to Trajectories: A Multi-LLM Pipeline for Community Knowledge Extraction from GitHub Issue Discussions | 2026-04-28 | ShowResolution of complex post-production issues in large-scale open-source software (OSS) projects requires significant cognitive effort, as developers need to go through long, unstructured and fragmented issue discussion threads before that. In this paper, we present SWE-MIMIC-Bench, an issue trajectory dataset generated from raw GitHub discussions using an automated multi-LLM pipeline. Unlike simple summarization, this pipeline utilizes a group of closed-source LLMs to perform granular tasks: analyzing individual comments with awareness of externally-linked resources, classifying comment analyses into label-specific fields (e.g., root cause, solution plan, implementation progress), and synthesizing label-aware trajectories which capture a structured and coherent narrative of the entire discussion thread. Our pipeline uses five closed-source LLM configurations for distinct purposes: label classification, inline code block and external link summarization, comment analysis, label-specific field classification and trajectory synthesis. By generating concise and reliable trajectories from complex conversation threads, this system can assist developers and researchers of broader software engineering community to understand the experience-driven collaborative approach for issue diagnosis. Furthermore, the generated trajectories can be used to train modern LLM agents to think and act like an expert developer. We evaluated our system on 800 real-world GitHub issues drawn from the SWE-Bench-Pro, SWE-Bench-Multilingual and SWE-Bench-Verified dataset, achieving a 91.7% success rate in extracting 734 high-fidelity reasoning trajectories. |
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| Quantum Dynamics via Score Matching on Bohmian Trajectories | 2026-04-28 | ShowWe solve the time-dependent Schrödinger equation by learning the score function, the gradient of the log-probability density, on Bohmian trajectories. In Bohm's formulation of quantum mechanics, particles follow deterministic paths under the classical potential supplemented by a quantum potential depending on the score function of the evolving density. These non-crossing Bohmian trajectories form a continuous normalizing flow governed by the score. We parametrize the score with a neural network and minimize a self-consistent Fisher divergence between the network and the score of the resulting density. We prove that the zero-loss minimizer of this self-consistent objective recovers Schrödinger dynamics for nodeless wave functions, a condition naturally met in quantum vibrations of atoms. We demonstrate the approach on wavepacket splitting in a double-well potential and anharmonic vibrations of a Morse chain. By recasting real-time quantum dynamics as a self-consistent score-driven normalizing flow, this framework opens the time-dependent Schrödinger equation to the rapidly advancing toolkit of modern generative modeling. |
8 pag...8 pages, 5 figues, code at https://github.com/wangleiphy/BohmianFlow |
| Sparse Personalized Text Generation with Multi-Trajectory Reasoning | 2026-04-27 | ShowAs Large Language Models (LLMs) advance, personalization has become a key mechanism for tailoring outputs to individual user needs. However, most existing methods rely heavily on dense interaction histories, making them ineffective in cold-start scenarios where such data is sparse or unavailable. While external signals (e.g., content of similar users) can offer a potential remedy, leveraging them effectively remains challenging: raw context is often noisy, and existing methods struggle to reason over heterogeneous data sources. To address these issues, we introduce PAT (Personalization with Aligned Trajectories), a reasoning framework for cold-start LLM personalization. PAT first retrieves information along two complementary trajectories: writing-style cues from stylistically similar users and topic-specific context from preference-aligned users. It then employs a reinforcement learning-based, iterative dual-reasoning mechanism that enables the LLM to jointly refine and integrate these signals. Experimental results across real-world personalization benchmarks show that PAT consistently improves generation quality and alignment under sparse-data conditions, establishing a strong solution to the cold-start personalization problem. |
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| Bayesian Inverse Transition Learning: Learning Dynamics From Near-Optimal Trajectories | 2026-04-27 | ShowWe consider the problem of estimating the transition dynamics $T^$ from near-optimal expert trajectories in the context of offline model-based reinforcement learning. We develop a novel constraint-based method, Inverse Transition Learning, that treats the limited coverage of the expert trajectories as a \emph{feature}: we use the fact that the expert is near-optimal to inform our estimate of $T^$. We integrate our constraints into a Bayesian approach. Across both synthetic environments and real healthcare scenarios like Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patient management in hypotension, we demonstrate not only significant improvements in decision-making, but that our posterior can inform when transfer will be successful. |
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| VERTIGO: Visual Preference Optimization for Cinematic Camera Trajectory Generation | 2026-04-27 | ShowCinematic camera control relies on a tight feedback loop between director and cinematographer, where camera motion and framing are continuously reviewed and refined. Recent generative camera systems can produce diverse, text-conditioned trajectories, but they lack this "director in the loop" and have no explicit supervision of whether a shot is visually desirable. This results in in-distribution camera motion but poor framing, off-screen characters, and undesirable visual aesthetics. In this paper, we introduce VERTIGO, the first framework for visual preference optimization of camera trajectory generators. Our framework leverages a real-time graphics engine (Unity) to render 2D visual previews from generated camera motion. A cinematically fine-tuned vision-language model then scores these previews using our proposed cyclic semantic similarity mechanism, which aligns renders with text prompts. This process provides the visual preference signals for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) post-training. Both quantitative evaluations and user studies on Unity renders and diffusion-based Camera-to-Video pipelines show consistent gains in condition adherence, framing quality, and perceptual realism. Notably, VERTIGO reduces the character off-screen rate from 38% to nearly 0% while preserving the geometric fidelity of camera motion. User study participants further prefer VERTIGO over baselines across composition, consistency, prompt adherence, and aesthetic quality, confirming the perceptual benefits of our visual preference post-training. |
28 pages, 10 figures |
| Sliding Mode Control for Safe Trajectory Tracking with Moving Obstacles Avoidance: Experimental Validation on Planar Robots | 2026-04-27 | ShowThis paper presents a unified control framework for robust trajectory tracking and moving obstacle avoidance applicable to a broad class of mobile robots. By formulating a generalized kinematic transformation, we convert diverse vehicle dynamics into a strict feedback form, facilitating the design of a Sliding Mode Control (SMC) strategy for precise and robust reference tracking. To ensure operational safety in dynamic environments, the tracking controller is integrated with a Collision Cone Control Barrier Function (C3BF) based safety filter. The proposed architecture guarantees asymptotic tracking in the presence of external disturbances while strictly enforcing collision avoidance constraints. The novelty of this work lies in designing a sliding mode controller for ground robots like the Ackermann drive, which has not been done before. The efficacy and versatility of the approach are validated through numerical simulations and extensive real-world experiments on three distinct platforms: an Ackermann-steered vehicle, a differential drive robot, and a quadrotor drone. Video of the experiments are available at https://youtu.be/dWcxwum96vk |
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| SceneSelect: Selective Learning for Trajectory Scene Classification and Expert Scheduling | 2026-04-27 | ShowAccurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning. |
This ...This paper has been accepted by ICIC 2026 |
| The Swarm Intelligence Freeway-Urban Trajectories (SWIFTraj) Dataset -- Part II: A Graph-Based Approach for Trajectory Connection | 2026-04-27 | ShowIn Part I of this companion paper series, we introduced SWIFTraj, a new open-source vehicle trajectory dataset collected using a unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarm. The dataset has two distinctive features. First, by connecting trajectories across consecutive UAV videos, it provides long-distance continuous trajectories, with the longest exceeding 4.5 km. Second, it covers an integrated traffic network consisting of both freeways and their connected urban roads. Obtaining such long-distance continuous trajectories from a UAV swarm is challenging, due to the need for accurate time alignment across multiple videos and the irregular spatial distribution of UAVs. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel graph-based approach for connecting vehicle trajectories captured by a UAV swarm. An undirected graph is constructed to represent flexible UAV layouts, and an automatic time alignment method based on trajectory matching cost minimization is developed to estimate optimal time offsets across videos. To associate trajectories of the same vehicle observed in different videos, a vehicle matching table is established using the Hungarian algorithm. The proposed approach is evaluated using both simulated and real-world data. Results from real-world experiments show that the time alignment error is within three video frames, corresponding to approximately 0.1 s, and that the vehicle matching achieves an F1-score of about 0.99. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in addressing key challenges in UAV-based trajectory connection and highlight its potential for large-scale vehicle trajectory collection. |
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| Trace2Skill: Distill Trajectory-Local Lessons into Transferable Agent Skills | 2026-04-27 | ShowEquipping Large Language Model (LLM) agents with domain-specific skills is critical for tackling complex tasks. Yet, manual authoring creates a severe scalability bottleneck. Conversely, automated skill generation often yields fragile or fragmented results because it either relies on shallow parametric knowledge or sequentially overfits to non-generalizable trajectory-local lessons. To overcome this, we introduce Trace2Skill, a framework that mirrors how human experts author skills: by holistically analyzing broad execution experience before distilling it into a single, comprehensive guide. Instead of reacting sequentially to individual trajectories, Trace2Skill dispatches a parallel fleet of sub-agents to analyze a diverse pool of executions. It extracts trajectory-specific lessons and hierarchically consolidates them into a unified, conflict-free skill directory via inductive reasoning. Trace2Skill supports both deepening existing human-written skills and creating new ones from scratch. Experiments in challenging domains, such as spreadsheet, VisionQA and math reasoning, show that Trace2Skill significantly improves upon strong baselines, including Anthropic's official xlsx skills. Crucially, this trajectory-grounded evolution does not merely memorize task instances or model-specific quirks: evolved skills transfer across LLM scales and generalize to OOD settings. For example, skills evolved by Qwen3.5-35B on its own trajectories improved a Qwen3.5-122B agent by up to 57.65 absolute percentage points on WikiTableQuestions. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that complex agent experience can be packaged into highly transferable, declarative skills -- requiring no parameter updates, no external retrieval modules, and utilizing open-source models as small as 35B parameters. |
Work in Progress |
| Reward-Aware Trajectory Shaping for Few-step Visual Generation | 2026-04-27 | ShowAchieving high-fidelity generation in extremely few sampling steps has long been a central goal of generative modeling. Existing approaches largely rely on distillation-based frameworks to compress the original multi-step denoising process into a few-step generator. However, such methods inherently constrain the student to imitate a stronger multi-step teacher, imposing the teacher as an upper bound on student performance. We argue that introducing \textbf{preference alignment awareness} enables the student to optimize toward reward-preferred generation quality, potentially surpassing the teacher instead of being restricted to rigid teacher imitation. To this end, we propose \textbf{Reward-Aware Trajectory Shaping (RATS)}, a lightweight framework for preference-aligned few-step generation. Specifically, teacher and student latent trajectories are aligned at key denoising stages through horizon matching, while a \textbf{reward-aware gate} is introduced to adaptively regulate teacher guidance based on their relative reward performance. Trajectory shaping is strengthened when the teacher achieves higher rewards, and relaxed when the student matches or surpasses the teacher, thereby enabling continued reward-driven improvement. By seamlessly integrating trajectory distillation, reward-aware gating, and preference alignment, RATS effectively transfers preference-relevant knowledge from high-step generators without incurring additional test-time computational overhead. Experimental results demonstrate that RATS substantially improves the efficiency--quality trade-off in few-step visual generation, significantly narrowing the gap between few-step students and stronger multi-step generators. |
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| Trajectory Planning for an Articulated Commercial Vehicle using Model Predictive Contouring Control | 2026-04-27 | ShowThis paper presents a trajectory planning method for articulated commercial vehicles, specifically tractor-semitrailers, based on Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC). Although MPCC has proven effective for passenger cars, it is generally ill-suited for tractor-semitrailers. These vehicles are significantly larger, the semitrailer follows a different path than the tractor, and reversing maneuvers are unstable and prone to jackknifing. Furthermore, practical driving scenarios often require scenario-dependent prioritization of different vehicle `anchor points', e.g., prioritizing the semitrailer position during docking or the tractor position when parking to charge. Therefore, we extend MPCC to enable scenario-dependent weighting of these anchor points and incorporate explicit road-boundary constraints for the front and rear tractor axles and the semitrailer axle, thereby ensuring that all considered wheels remain within the drivable area. The simulation results demonstrate the successful navigation of a representative logistic scenario in both forward and reverse direction. Furthermore, the influence of the optimization parameters on the trajectories is analyzed, providing insights into controlling the vehicle behavior. Finally, first tests using a full-scale prototype vehicle show the practical applicability of the approach. |
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| Safer Trajectory Planning with CBF-guided Diffusion Model for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | 2026-04-26 | ShowSafe and agile trajectory planning is essential for autonomous systems, especially during complex aerobatic maneuvers. Motivated by the recent success of diffusion models in generative tasks, this paper introduces AeroTrajGen, a novel framework for diffusion-based trajectory generation that incorporates control barrier function (CBF)-guided sampling during inference, specifically designed for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The proposed CBF-guided sampling addresses two critical challenges: (1) mitigating the inherent unpredictability and potential safety violations of diffusion models, and (2) reducing reliance on extensively safety-verified training data. During the reverse diffusion process, CBF-based guidance ensures collision-free trajectories by seamlessly integrating safety constraint gradients with the diffusion model's score function. The model features an obstacle-aware diffusion transformer architecture with multi-modal conditioning, including trajectory history, obstacles, maneuver styles, and goal, enabling the generation of smooth, highly agile trajectories across 14 distinct aerobatic maneuvers. Trained on a dataset of 2,000 expert demonstrations, AeroTrajGen is rigorously evaluated in simulation under multi-obstacle environments. Simulation results demonstrate that CBF-guided sampling reduces collision rates by 94.7% compared to unguided diffusion baselines, while preserving trajectory agility and diversity. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/RoboticsPolyu/CBF-DMP. |
Some ...Some equations and sentences need to be checked again and will be uploaded again |
| Hamiltonian Graph Inference Networks: Joint structure discovery and dynamics prediction for lattice Hamiltonian systems from trajectory data | 2026-04-26 | ShowLattice Hamiltonian systems underpin models across condensed matter, nonlinear optics, and biophysics, yet learning their dynamics from data is obstructed by two unknowns: the interaction topology and whether node dynamics are homogeneous. Existing graph-based approaches either assume the graph is given or, as in |
18 pages, 8 figures |
| $Z^2$-Sampling: Zero-Cost Zigzag Trajectories for Semantic Alignment in Diffusion Models | 2026-04-26 | ShowDiffusion models have achieved unprecedented success in text-aligned generation, largely driven by Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). However, standard CFG operates strictly on instantaneous gradients, omitting the intrinsic curvature of the data manifold. Recent methods like Zigzag-sampling (Z-Sampling) explicitly traverse multi-step forward-backward trajectories to probe this curvature, significantly improving semantic alignment. Yet, these explicit traversals triple the Neural Function Evaluation (NFE) cost and introduce unconstrained truncation errors from off-manifold evaluations, causing cumulative drift from the true marginal distribution. In this paper, we theoretically demonstrate that the explicit zigzag sequence is topologically reducible. We propose Implicit Z-Sampling, rigorously proving that intermediate states can be algebraically annihilated via operator dualities, physically eliminating off-manifold approximation errors. To push sampling efficiency to its theoretical lower bound, we introduce |
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| Toward Theoretical Insights into Diffusion Trajectory Distillation via Operator Merging | 2026-04-26 | ShowDiffusion trajectory distillation accelerates sampling by training a student model to approximate the multi-step denoising trajectories of a pretrained teacher model using far fewer steps. Despite strong empirical results, the trade-off between distillation strategy and generative quality remains poorly understood. We provide a theoretical characterization by reinterpreting trajectory distillation as an operator merging problem, differentiating our analysis between two distinct regimes. In the linear Gaussian regime, where approximation error is zero, we isolate optimization error, specifically signal shrinkage driven by finite training time, as the primary bottleneck. This characterization allows us to derive the theoretically optimal merging strategy, which exhibits a variance-driven phase transition and is computable via a Pareto dynamic programming algorithm. In the nonlinear Gaussian mixture regime, we prove that distilling composite steps incurs unavoidable approximation error due to the exponential growth of mixture components, and we quantify how these errors amplify across merges. Together, these results clarify the distinct theoretical mechanisms governing each regime and provide principled guidance for method selection. |
25 pages, 23 figures |
| HardFlow: Hard-Constrained Sampling for Flow-Matching Models via Trajectory Optimization | 2026-04-26 | ShowDiffusion and flow-matching have emerged as powerful methodologies for generative modeling, with remarkable success in capturing complex data distributions and enabling flexible guidance at inference time. Many downstream applications, however, demand enforcing hard constraints on generated samples (for example, robot trajectories must avoid obstacles), a requirement that goes beyond simple guidance. Prevailing projection-based approaches constrain the entire sampling path to the constraint manifold, which is overly restrictive and degrades sample quality. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that reformulates hard-constrained sampling as a trajectory optimization problem. Our key insight is to leverage numerical optimal control to steer the sampling trajectory so that constraints are satisfied precisely at the terminal time. By exploiting the underlying structure of flow-matching models and adopting techniques from model predictive control, we transform this otherwise complex constrained optimization problem into a tractable surrogate that can be solved efficiently and effectively. Furthermore, this trajectory optimization perspective offers significant flexibility beyond mere constraint satisfaction, allowing for the inclusion of integral costs to minimize distribution shift and terminal objectives to further enhance sample quality, all within a unified framework. We provide a control-theoretic analysis of our method, establishing bounds on the approximation error between our tractable surrogate and the ideal formulation. Extensive experiments across diverse domains, including robotics (planning), partial differential equations (boundary control), and vision (text-guided image editing), demonstrate that our algorithm, which we name |
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| Do Synthetic Trajectories Reflect Real Reward Hacking? A Systematic Study on Monitoring In-the-Wild Hacking in Code Generation | 2026-04-26 | ShowReward hacking in code generation, where models exploit evaluation loopholes to obtain full reward without correctly solving the tasks, poses a critical challenge for Reinforcement Learning (RL) and the deployment of reasoning models. Existing studies have been conducted primarily on synthetic hacking trajectories. However, whether these synthetic behaviors faithfully represent naturally emerging hacking in the wild remains unclear. In this work, we present a systematic analysis of the synthetic vs. in-the-wild discrepancy in reward hacking. We examine to what extent hacking behaviors induced by prompting resemble those emerging during RL training, and whether monitors trained on synthetic trajectories generalize to naturally arising but previously unseen hacking. To scale up the curation of in-the-wild reward hacking trajectories, we modified Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) by injecting conflicting unit tests as tracers and applying a "resampling-until-hack" mechanism. Through controlled comparisons between monitors trained on synthetic versus in-the-wild data, we find that (1) synthetic-data-trained monitors fail to generalize to "in-the-wild" hacking, and (2) monitors trained on our "in-the-wild" trajectories demonstrate stronger generalizability to unseen hacking types. Our results indicate that synthetic reward hacking data may not fully reflect natural reward hacking behaviors, and that relying solely on synthetic data can lead to misleading conclusions. The codebase is available at https://github.com/LichenLillc/CoTMonitoring.git |
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| Risk-Aware Rulebooks for Multi-Objective Trajectory Evaluation under Uncertainty | 2026-04-25 | ShowWe present a risk-aware formalism for evaluating system trajectories in the presence of uncertain interactions between the system and its environment. The proposed formalism supports reasoning under uncertainty and systematically handles complex relationships among requirements and objectives, including hierarchical priorities and non-comparability. Rather than treating the environment as exogenous noise, we explicitly model how each system trajectory influences the environment and evaluate trajectories under the resulting distribution of environment responses. We prove that the formalism induces a preorder on the set of system trajectories, ensuring consistency and preventing cyclic preferences. Finally, we illustrate the approach with an autonomous driving example that demonstrates how the formalism enhances explainability by clarifying the rationale behind trajectory selection. |
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| Follow the TRACE: Exploiting Post-Click Trajectories for Online Delayed Conversion Rate Prediction | 2026-04-25 | ShowDelayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click behaviors evolve over the observation period. To overcome this limitation, we formalize this evolution as feedback trajectory and propose TRACE. Instead of forcing hard labels on unrevealed samples, our method evaluates how well the accumulated feedback status aligns with conversion versus non-conversion, dynamically refining posteriors without waiting for final outcomes. To counteract early-stage trajectory sparsity, we further design a reliability-gated retrospective completer that leverages full-lifecycle data to provide adaptive posterior guidance for unrevealed samples. Extensive experiments validate TRACE's superiority over state-of-the-art baselines and confirm the retrospective completion module as a model-agnostic enhancer for existing systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LunaZhangxy/TRACE. |
Accep...Accepted as a SIGIR 2026 short paper |
| AgentHER: Hindsight Experience Replay for LLM Agent Trajectory Relabeling | 2026-04-25 | ShowLLM agents fail on the majority of real-world tasks -- GPT-4o succeeds on fewer than 15% of WebArena navigation tasks and below 55% pass@1 on ToolBench (Zhou et al., 2024; Qin et al., 2024) -- yet every failed trajectory is routinely discarded, wasting the dominant source of collected experience. We introduce AgentHER, a framework that recovers this lost training signal by adapting the Hindsight Experience Replay (HER; Andrychowicz et al., 2017) principle to natural-language agent trajectories for offline data augmentation. The key insight is simple: a trajectory that fails goal A is often a correct demonstration for some achievable alternative goal B. AgentHER realises this idea through a four-stage pipeline -- failure classification, outcome extraction, LLM-guided prompt relabeling with confidence gating, and data packaging -- that converts discarded failures into high-quality SFT, DPO, and ShareGPT training data, with both zero-cost rule-based and LLM-judge implementations. On WebArena (Zhou et al., 2024) and ToolBench (Qin et al., 2024), AgentHER improves over success-only SFT by +7.1-11.7 pp across four model families (GPT-4o, Qwen2.5-72B/7B, LLaMA-3.1-8B), while achieving 2x data efficiency -- matching baseline performance with only 50% of successful demonstrations. Gains are consistent from 1.5B to 72B parameters (+5.8-9.2 pp) and compound under iterative redeployment (+2.1 pp over additional rounds). Human evaluation confirms 97.7% relabeling precision under multi-judge verification. |
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| UAV Trajectory and Bandwidth Allocation for Efficient Data Collection in Low-Altitude Intelligent IoT: A Hierarchical DRL Approach | 2026-04-25 | ShowUnder the 6G wireless network evolution, the low-altitude Internet of Things (IoT), supported by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with Integrated Sensing and Communication (ISAC) capabilities, provides ground sensing networks with advanced real-time monitoring and data collection. To maximize data collection volume from distributed IoT nodes, AI-powered data collection technology plays a critical role in enabling intelligent decision-making. Among them, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has gained particular attention. However, the existing DRL-based work on UAV-assisted IoT nodes data collection rarely address problems such as unknown interference and dynamic data volume. Moreover, these DRL models have high arithmetic requirements and slow convergence speed, making it difficult to carry on UAVs with limited load and arithmetic power. To address these challenges, a hierarchical deep reinforcement learning (HDRL), which can converge quickly and with smaller models, is designed to optimize UAV trajectories and bandwidth allocation to maximize data collection volume. Firstly, the proposed scenario incorporates interference from jammers, dynamic data volume of IoT nodes, and multiple types of obstacles. The entire task is hierarchically structured: the upper-level makes flight trajectory decisions at a coarse temporal granularity, while the lower-level makes bandwidth allocation decisions at a finer temporal granularity. Secondly, a trajectory and bandwidth allocation optimization algorithm based on hierarchical deep deterministic policy gradients (TBH-DDPG) is proposed to solve the problem. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm improves convergence speed by 44.44%, and reduces computational cost by 58.05%, compared to non-hierarchical algorithm. |
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| DriVerse: Navigation World Model for Driving Simulation via Multimodal Trajectory Prompting and Motion Alignment | 2026-04-24 | ShowThis paper presents DriVerse, a generative model for simulating navigation-driven driving scenes from a single image and a future trajectory. Previous autonomous driving world models either directly feed the trajectory or discrete control signals into the generation pipeline, leading to poor alignment between the control inputs and the implicit features of the 2D base generative model, which results in low-fidelity video outputs. Some methods use coarse textual commands or discrete vehicle control signals, which lack the precision to guide fine-grained, trajectory-specific video generation, making them unsuitable for evaluating actual autonomous driving algorithms. DriVerse introduces explicit trajectory guidance in two complementary forms: it tokenizes trajectories into textual prompts using a predefined trend vocabulary for seamless language integration, and converts 3D trajectories into 2D spatial motion priors to enhance control over static content within the driving scene. To better handle dynamic objects, we further introduce a lightweight motion alignment module, which focuses on the inter-frame consistency of dynamic pixels, significantly enhancing the temporal coherence of moving elements over long sequences. With minimal training and no need for additional data, DriVerse outperforms specialized models on future video generation tasks across both the nuScenes and Waymo datasets. The code and models will be released to the public. |
13 pages, 5 figures |
| Collaborative Trajectory Prediction via Late Fusion | 2026-04-24 | ShowPredicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate ( |
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| Recent Advances in Multi-Agent Human Trajectory Prediction: A Comprehensive Review | 2026-04-24 | ShowWith the emergence of powerful data-driven methods in human trajectory prediction (HTP), gaining a finer understanding of multi-agent interactions lies within hand's reach, with important implications in areas such as social robot navigation, autonomous driving, and crowd modeling. This survey reviews some of the most recent advancements in deep learning-based multi-agent trajectory prediction, focusing on studies published between 2020 and 2025. We categorize the existing methods based on their architectural design, their input representations, and their overall prediction strategies, placing a particular emphasis on models evaluated using the ETH/UCY benchmark. Furthermore, we highlight key challenges and future research directions in the field of multi-agent HTP. |
40 pages |
| GCImOpt: Learning efficient goal-conditioned policies by imitating optimal trajectories | 2026-04-24 | ShowImitation learning is a well-established approach for machine-learning-based control. However, its applicability depends on having access to demonstrations, which are often expensive to collect and/or suboptimal for solving the task. In this work, we present GCImOpt, an approach to learn efficient goal-conditioned policies by training on datasets generated by trajectory optimization. Our approach for dataset generation is computationally efficient, can generate thousands of optimal trajectories in minutes on a laptop computer, and produces high-quality demonstrations. Further, by means of a data augmentation scheme that treats intermediate states as goals, we are able to increase the training dataset size by an order of magnitude. Using our generated datasets, we train goal-conditioned neural network policies that can control the system towards arbitrary goals. To demonstrate the generality of our approach, we generate datasets and then train policies for various control tasks, namely cart-pole stabilization, planar and three-dimensional quadcopter stabilization, and point reaching using a 6-DoF robot arm. We show that our trained policies can achieve high success rates and near-optimal control profiles, all while being small (less than 80,000 neural network parameters) and fast enough (up to more than 6,000 times faster than a trajectory optimization solver) that they could be deployed onboard resource-constrained controllers. We provide videos, code, datasets and pre-trained policies under a free software license; see our project website https://jongoiko.github.io/gcimopt/. |
Accep...Accepted for publication at the 8th Annual Conference on Learning for Dynamics and Control (L4DC 2026). 16 pages (including appendix), 1 figure. For project website, see https://jongoiko.github.io/gcimopt/ |
| ATRS: Adaptive Trajectory Re-splitting via a Shared Neural Policy for Parallel Optimization | 2026-04-24 | ShowParallel trajectory optimization via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) has emerged as a scalable approach to long-horizon motion planning. However, existing frameworks typically decompose the problem into parallel subproblems based on a predefined fixed structure. Such structural rigidity often causes optimization stagnation in highly constrained regions, where a few lagging subproblems delay global convergence. A natural remedy is to adaptively re-split these stagnating segments online. Yet, deciding when, where, and how to split exceeds the capability of rule-based heuristics. To this end, we propose ATRS, a novel framework that embeds a shared Deep Reinforcement Learning policy into the parallel ADMM loop. We formulate this adaptive adjustment as a Multi-Agent Shared-Policy Markov Decision Process, where all trajectory segments act as homogeneous agents and share a unified neural policy network. This parameter-sharing architecture endows the system with size invariance, enabling it to handle dynamically changing segment counts during re-splitting and generalize to arbitrary trajectory lengths. Furthermore, our formulation inherently supports zero-shot generalization to unseen environments, as our network relies solely on the internal states of the numerical solver rather than on the geometric features of the environment. To ensure solver stability, a Confidence-Based Election mechanism selects only the most stagnating segment for re-splitting at each step. Extensive simulations demonstrate that ATRS accelerates convergence, reducing the number of iterations by up to 26.0% and the computation time by up to 19.1%. Real-world experiments further confirm its applicability to both large-scale offline global planning and real-time onboard replanning within 35 ms per cycle, with no sim-to-real degradation. |
8 pag...8 pages, submitted to IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters |
| QDTraj: Exploration of Diverse Trajectory Primitives for Articulated Objects Robotic Manipulation | 2026-04-24 | ShowThanks to the latest advances in learning and robotics, domestic robots are beginning to enter homes, aiming to execute household chores autonomously. However, robots still struggle to perform autonomous manipulation tasks in open-ended environments. In this context, this paper presents a method that enables a robot to manipulate a wide spectrum of articulated objects. In this paper, we automatically generate different robot low-level trajectory primitives to manipulate given object articulations. A very important point when it comes to generating expert trajectories is to consider the diversity of solutions to achieve the same goal. Indeed, knowing diverse low-level primitives to accomplish the same task enables the robot to choose the optimal solution in its real-world environment, with live constraints and unexpected changes. To do so, we propose a method based on Quality-Diversity algorithms that leverages sparse reward exploration in order to generate a set of diverse and high-performing trajectory primitives for a given manipulation task. We validated our method, QDTraj, by generating diverse trajectories in simulation and deploying them in the real world. QDTraj generates at least 5 times more diverse trajectories for both hinge and slider activation tasks, outperforming the other methods we compared against. We assessed the generalization of our method over 30 articulations of the PartNetMobility articulated object dataset, with an average of 704 different trajectories by task. Code is publicly available at: https://kappel.web.isir.upmc.fr/trajectory_primitive_website |
8 pag...8 pages, 7 figures, webpage: https://kappel.web.isir.upmc.fr/trajectory_primitive_website |
| Holo360D: A Large-Scale Real-World Dataset with Continuous Trajectories for Advancing Panoramic 3D Reconstruction and Beyond | 2026-04-24 | ShowWhile feed-forward 3D reconstruction models have advanced rapidly, they still exhibit degraded performance on panoramas due to spherical distortions. Moreover, existing panoramic 3D datasets are predominantly collected with 360 cameras fixed at discrete locations, resulting in discontinuous trajectories. These limitations critically hinder the development of panoramic feed-forward 3D reconstruction, especially for the multi-view setting. In this paper, we present Holo360D, a comprehensive dataset containing 109,495 panoramas paired with registered point clouds, meshes, and aligned camera poses. To our knowledge, Holo360D is the first large-scale dataset that provides continuous panoramic sequences with accurately aligned high-completeness depth maps. The raw data are initially collected using a 3D laser scanner coupled with a 360 camera. Subsequently, the raw data are processed with both online and offline SLAM systems. Furthermore, to enhance the 3D data quality, a post-processing pipeline tailored for the 360 dataset is proposed, including geometry denoising, mesh hole filling, and region-specific remeshing. Finally, we establish a new benchmark by fine-tuning 3D reconstruction models on Holo360D, providing key insights into effective fine-tuning strategies. Our results demonstrate that Holo360D delivers superior training signals and provides a comprehensive benchmark for advancing panoramic 3D reconstruction models. Datasets and Code will be made publicly available. |
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| V-STC: A Time-Efficient Multi-Vehicle Coordinated Trajectory Planning Approach | 2026-04-24 | ShowCoordinating the motions of multiple autonomous vehicles (AVs) requires planning frameworks that ensure safety while making efficient use of space and time. This paper presents a new approach, termed variable-time-step spatio-temporal corridor (V-STC), that enhances the temporal efficiency of multi-vehicle coordination. An optimization model is formulated to construct a V-STC for each AV, in which both the spatial configuration of the corridor cubes and their time durations are treated as decision variables. By allowing the corridor's spatial position and time step to vary, the constructed V-STC reduces the overall temporal occupancy of each AV while maintaining collision-free separation in the spatio-temporal domain. Based on the generated V-STC, a dynamically feasible trajectory is then planned independently for each AV. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves safe multi-vehicle coordination and yields more time-efficient motion compared with existing STC approaches. |
12 pages, 23 figures |
| SANDO: Safe Autonomous Trajectory Planning for Dynamic Unknown Environments | 2026-04-24 | ShowSANDO is a safe trajectory planner for 3D dynamic unknown environments, where obstacle locations and motions are unknown a priori and a collision-free plan can become unsafe at any moment, requiring fast replanning. Existing soft-constraint planners are fast but cannot guarantee collision-free paths, while hard-constraint methods ensure safety at the cost of longer computation. SANDO addresses this trade-off through three contributions. First, a heat map-based A* global planner steers paths away from high-risk regions using soft costs, and a spatiotemporal safe flight corridor (STSFC) generator produces time-layered polytopes that inflate obstacles only by their worst-case reachable set at each time layer, rather than by the worst case over the entire horizon. Second, trajectory optimization is formulated as a Mixed-Integer Quadratic Program (MIQP) with hard collision-avoidance constraints, and a variable elimination technique reduces the number of decision variables, enabling fast computation. Third, a formal safety analysis establishes collision-free guarantees under explicit velocity-bound and estimation-error assumptions. Ablation studies show that variable elimination yields up to 7.4x speedup in optimization time, and that STSFCs are critical for feasibility in dense dynamic environments. Benchmark simulations against state-of-the-art methods across standardized static benchmarks, obstacle-rich static forests, and dynamic environments show that SANDO consistently achieves the highest success rate with no constraint violations across all difficulty levels; perception-only experiments without ground truth obstacle information confirm robust performance under realistic sensing. Hardware experiments on a UAV with fully onboard planning, perception, and localization demonstrate six safe flights in static environments and ten safe flights among dynamic obstacles. |
20 pages, 17 figures |
| Geometric Characterisation and Structured Trajectory Surrogates for Clinical Dataset Condensation | 2026-04-23 | ShowDataset condensation constructs compact synthetic datasets that retain the training utility of large real-world datasets, enabling efficient model development and potentially supporting downstream research in governed domains such as healthcare. Trajectory matching (TM) is a widely used condensation approach that supervises synthetic data using changes in model parameters observed during training on real data, yet the structure of this supervision signal remains poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a geometric characterisation of trajectory matching, showing that a fixed synthetic dataset can only reproduce a limited span of such training-induced parameter changes. When the resulting supervision signal is spectrally broad, this creates a conditional representability bottleneck. Motivated by this mismatch, we propose Bezier Trajectory Matching (BTM), which replaces SGD trajectories with quadratic Bezier trajectory surrogates between initial and final model states. These surrogates are optimised to reduce average loss along the path while replacing broad SGD-derived supervision with a more structured, lower-rank signal that is better aligned with the optimisation constraints of a fixed synthetic dataset, and they substantially reduce trajectory storage. Experiments on five clinical datasets demonstrate that BTM consistently matches or improves upon standard trajectory matching, with the largest gains in low-prevalence and low-synthetic-budget settings. These results indicate that effective trajectory matching depends on structuring the supervision signal rather than reproducing stochastic optimisation paths. |
34 pages, 7 figures |
| Tempered Sequential Monte Carlo for Trajectory and Policy Optimization with Differentiable Dynamics | 2026-04-23 | ShowWe propose a sampling-based framework for finite-horizon trajectory and policy optimization under differentiable dynamics by casting controller design as inference. Specifically, we minimize a KL-regularized expected trajectory cost, which yields an optimal "Boltzmann-tilted" distribution over controller parameters that concentrates on low-cost solutions as temperature decreases. To sample efficiently from this sharp, potentially multimodal target, we introduce tempered sequential Monte Carlo (TSMC): an annealing scheme that adaptively reweights and resamples particles along a tempering path from a prior to the target distribution, while using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo rejuvenation to maintain diversity and exploit exact gradients obtained by differentiating through trajectory rollouts. For policy optimization, we extend TSMC via (i) a deterministic empirical approximation of the initial-state distribution and (ii) an extended-space construction that treats rollout randomness as auxiliary variables. Experiments across trajectory- and policy-optimization benchmarks show that TSMC is broadly applicable and compares favorably to state-of-the-art baselines. |
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| A pragmatic classification of AI incident trajectories | 2026-04-23 | ShowPublic AI incident database counts conflate changes in reporting propensity, deployment growth, and shifts in harm frequency per unit of exposure. These issues introduce significant uncertainties challenging public and corporate policy frameworks centred on realized risks. We propose a simple framework that establishes clear points of inquiry, separately estimates exposure from harm-rate trends, and then classifies into meaningful trajectory categories for governance decisions. The framework combines a structured monitoring question format (SORT) to clarify coverage decisions, a tiered estimation procedure calibrated to available evidence, and LLM-assisted incident matching against public databases. Applied to various monitoring questions, we draw conclusions regarding the monitoring ecosystem more broadly: Providing an essential interpretative classification, determining what can and cannot be claimed, and establishing that exposure estimation is required as AI deployments become increasingly common. |
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| Reasoning About Traversability: Language-Guided Off-Road 3D Trajectory Planning | 2026-04-23 | ShowWhile Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable high-level semantic reasoning for end-to-end autonomous driving, particularly in unstructured environments, existing off-road datasets suffer from language annotations that are weakly aligned with vehicle actions and terrain geometry. To address this misalignment, we propose a language refinement framework that restructures annotations into action-aligned pairs, enabling a VLM to generate refined scene descriptions and 3D future trajectories directly from a single image. To further encourage terrain-aware planning, we introduce a preference optimization strategy that constructs geometry-aware hard negatives and explicitly penalizes trajectories inconsistent with local elevation profiles. Furthermore, we propose off-road-specific metrics to quantify traversability compliance and elevation consistency, addressing the limitations of conventional on-road evaluation. Experiments on the ORAD-3D benchmark demonstrate that our approach reduces average trajectory error from 1.01m to 0.97m, improves traversability compliance from 0.621 to 0.644, and decreases elevation inconsistency from 0.428 to 0.322, highlighting the efficacy of action-aligned supervision and terrain-aware optimization for robust off-road driving. |
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| The Feedback Hamiltonian is the Score Function: A Diffusion-Model Framework for Quantum Trajectory Reversal | 2026-04-23 | ShowIn continuously monitored quantum systems, the feedback protocol of García-Pintos, Liu, and Gorshkov reshapes the arrow of time: a Hamiltonian |
14 pages |
| Relative Entropy Estimation in Function Space: Theory and Applications to Trajectory Inference | 2026-04-22 | ShowTrajectory Inference (TI) seeks to recover latent dynamical processes from snapshot data, where only independent samples from time-indexed marginals are observed. In applications such as single-cell genomics, destructive measurements make path-space laws non-identifiable from finitely many marginals, leaving held-out marginal prediction as the dominant but limited evaluation protocol. We introduce a general framework for estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL) divergence between probability measures on function space, yielding a tractable, data-driven estimator that is scalable to realistic snapshot datasets. We validate the accuracy of our estimator on a benchmark suite, where the estimated functional KL closely matches the analytic KL. Applying this framework to synthetic and real scRNA-seq datasets, we show that current evaluation metrics often give inconsistent assessments, whereas path-space KL enables a coherent comparison of trajectory inference methods and exposes discrepancies in inferred dynamics, especially in regions with sparse or missing data. These results support functional KL as a principled criterion for evaluating trajectory inference under partial observability. |
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| Rays as Pixels: Learning A Joint Distribution of Videos and Camera Trajectories | 2026-04-22 | ShowRecovering camera parameters from images and rendering scenes from novel viewpoints have been treated as separate tasks in computer vision and graphics. This separation breaks down when image coverage is sparse or poses are ambiguous, since each task depends on what the other produces. We propose Rays as Pixels, a Video Diffusion Model (VDM) that learns a joint distribution over videos and camera trajectories. To our knowledge, this is the first model to predict camera poses and do camera-controlled video generation within a single framework. We represent each camera as dense ray pixels (raxels), a pixel-aligned encoding that lives in the same latent space as video frames, and denoise the two jointly through a Decoupled Self-Cross Attention mechanism. A single trained model handles three tasks: predicting camera trajectories from video, generating video from input images along a pre-defined trajectory, and jointly synthesizing video and trajectory from input images. We evaluate on pose estimation and camera-controlled video generation, and introduce a closed-loop self-consistency test showing that the model's predicted poses and its renderings conditioned on those poses agree. Ablations against Plücker embeddings confirm that representing cameras in a shared latent space with video is subtantially more effective. |
9 pag...9 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables. Project page: https://wbjang.github.io/raysaspixels/ |
| DialToM: A Theory of Mind Benchmark for Forecasting State-Driven Dialogue Trajectories | 2026-04-22 | ShowLarge Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to possess Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities. However, it remains unclear whether this stems from robust reasoning or spurious correlations. We introduce DialToM, a human-verified benchmark built from natural human dialogue using a multiple-choice framework. We evaluate not only mental state prediction (Literal ToM) but also the functional utility of these states (Functional ToM) through Prospective Diagnostic Forecasting -- probing whether models can identify state-consistent dialogue trajectories solely from mental-state profiles. Our results reveal a significant reasoning asymmetry: while LLMs excel at identifying mental states, most (except for Gemini 3 Pro) fail to leverage this understanding to forecast social trajectories. Additionally, we find only weak semantic similarities between human and LLM-generated inferences. To facilitate reproducibility, the DialToM dataset and evaluation code are publicly available at https://github.com/Stealth-py/DialToM. |
Submi...Submitted to KDD 2026 Datasets and Benchmarks Track |
| High-Level Multi-Robot Trajectory Planning And Spurious Behavior Detection | 2026-04-22 | ShowThe reliable execution of high-level missions in multi-robot systems with heterogeneous agents, requires robust methods for detecting spurious behaviors. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying spurious executions of plans specified as a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formula, as incorrect task sequences, violations of spatial constraints, timing inconsistencies, or deviations from intended mission semantics. To tackle this, we introduce a structured data generation framework based on the Nets-within-Nets (NWN) paradigm, which coordinates robot actions with LTL-derived global mission specifications. We further propose a Transformer-based anomaly detection pipeline that classifies robot trajectories as normal or anomalous. Experimental evaluations show that our method achieves high accuracy (91.3%) in identifying execution inefficiencies, and demonstrates robust detection capabilities for core mission violations (88.3%) and constraint-based adaptive anomalies (66.8%). An ablation experiment of the embedding and architecture was carried out, obtaining successful results where our novel proposition performs better than simpler representations. |
6 pag...6 pages,3 figures, Iberian Robotics Conference 2025 |
| Trajectory Design for Fairness Enhancement in Movable Antennas-Aided Communications | 2026-04-22 | ShowThrough adaptive antenna repositioning, the movable antenna (MA) technology enables on-demand reconfiguration of wireless channels, thereby creating an additional spatial degree of freedom in improving communication performance. This paper investigates a multiuser uplink communication system aided by MAs, where a base station (BS) equipped with multiple MAs serves multiple single-antenna users. Specifically, given that an optimized array geometry cannot guarantee rate fairness, we focus on designing antenna trajectory at the BS to maximize the minimum achievable rate among all users over a finite time period. The resulting optimization problem is fundamentally challenging to solve due to the continuous-time nature. To address it, we first examine an ideal case with infinitely fast MA movement and demonstrate that the relaxed problem can be optimally solved via the Lagrangian dual method. The obtained trajectory solution reveals that the BS should employ a finite set of MA deployment patterns, each allocated an optimal time duration. Building on this, we then study the general case with limited MA movement speed and propose a heuristic trajectory design inspired by the optimal patterns identified in the ideal scenario. Several insights are also gained by examining the simplified special case. Finally, numerical results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed designs compared to competitive benchmarks. |
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| Which Reasoning Trajectories Teach Students to Reason Better? A Simple Metric of Informative Alignment | 2026-04-22 | ShowLong chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that align closely with the student model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically balance learning signal strength and behavioral alignment by combining low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training reasoning performance (average Spearman 0.86), consistently outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection. |
Accep...Accepted to ACL 2026 (Main Conference). 31 pages. Project page: https://github.com/UmeanNever/RankSurprisalRatio |
| Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems | 2026-04-22 | ShowFailures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. Democratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper introduces a trajectory-aware reliability modeling framework based on Dynamic Causal Neural Autoregression (DCNAR). The framework first estimates a causal interaction structure among institutional indicators and then models their joint temporal evolution to generate forward trajectories of system states. Failure risk is defined as the probability that predicted trajectories cross predefined degradation thresholds within a fixed horizon. Using longitudinal institutional indicators, we compare DCNAR-based trajectory risk models with discrete-time hazard and Cox proportional hazards models. Results show that trajectory-aware modeling consistently outperforms Cox models and improves risk prediction for several propagation-driven institutional failures. These findings highlight the importance of modeling dynamic system interactions for reliability analysis and early detection of systemic degradation. |
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| Best Policy Learning from Trajectory Preference Feedback | 2026-04-21 | ShowReinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful approach for aligning generative models, but its reliance on learned reward models makes it vulnerable to mis-specification and reward hacking. Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) offers a more robust alternative by directly leveraging noisy binary comparisons over trajectories. We study the best policy identification problem in PbRL, motivated by post-training optimization of generative models, for example, during multi-turn interactions. Learning in this setting combines an offline preference dataset - potentially biased or out-of-distribution and collected from a rater of subpar `competence' - with online pure exploration, making systematic online learning essential. To this end, we propose Posterior Sampling for Preference Learning ( |
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| SceneOrchestra: Efficient Agentic 3D Scene Synthesis via Full Tool-Call Trajectory Generation | 2026-04-21 | ShowRecent agentic frameworks for 3D scene synthesis have advanced realism and diversity by integrating heterogeneous generation and editing tools. These tools are organized into workflows orchestrated by an off-the-shelf LLM. Current approaches typically adopt an execute-review-reflect loop: at each step, the orchestrator executes a tool, renders intermediate results for review, and then decides on the tool and its parameters for the next step. However, this design has two key limitations. First, next-step tool selection and parameter configuration are driven by heuristic rules, which can lead to suboptimal execution flows, unnecessary tool invocations, degraded output quality, and increased runtime. Second, rendering and reviewing intermediate results after each step introduces additional latency. To address these issues, we propose SceneOrchestra, a trainable orchestration framework that optimizes the tool-call execution flow and eliminates the step-by-step review loop, improving both efficiency and output quality. SceneOrchestra consists of an orchestrator and a discriminator, which we fine-tune with a two-phase training strategy. In the first phase, the orchestrator learns context-aware tool selection and complete tool-call trajectory generation, while the discriminator is trained to assess the quality of full trajectories, enabling it to select the best trajectory from multiple candidates. In the second phase, we perform interleaved training, where the discriminator adapts to the orchestrator's evolving trajectory distribution and distills its discriminative capability back into the orchestrator. At inference, we only use the orchestrator to generate and execute full tool-call trajectories from instructions, without requiring the discriminator. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art scene quality while reducing runtime compared to previous work. |
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| What Makes an LLM a Good Optimizer? A Trajectory Analysis of LLM-Guided Evolutionary Search | 2026-04-21 | ShowRecent work has demonstrated the promise of orchestrating large language models (LLMs) within evolutionary and agentic optimization systems. However, the mechanisms driving these optimization gains remain poorly understood. In this work, we present a large-scale study of LLM-guided evolutionary search, collecting optimization trajectories for 15 LLMs across 8 tasks. Although zero-shot problem-solving ability correlates with final optimization outcomes, it explains only part of the variance: models with similar initial capability often induce dramatically different search trajectories and outcomes. By analyzing these trajectories, we find that strong LLM optimizers behave as local refiners, producing frequent incremental improvements while progressively localizing the search in semantic space. Conversely, weaker optimizers exhibit large semantic drift, with sporadic breakthroughs followed by stagnation. Notably, various measures of solution novelty do not predict final performance; novelty is beneficial only when the search remains sufficiently localized around high-performing regions of the solution space. Our results highlight the importance of trajectory analysis for understanding and improving LLM-based optimization systems and provide actionable insights for their design and training. |
9 pag...9 pages, 8 figures, Accepted at Findings of ACL 2026 |
| Flow-Opt: Scalable Centralized Multi-Robot Trajectory Optimization with Flow Matching and Differentiable Optimization | 2026-04-21 | ShowCentralized trajectory optimization in the joint space of multiple robots allows access to a larger feasible space that can result in smoother trajectories, especially while planning in tight spaces. Unfortunately, it is often computationally intractable beyond a very small swarm size. In this paper, we propose Flow-Opt, a learning-based approach towards improving the computational tractability of centralized multi-robot trajectory optimization. Specifically, we reduce the problem to first learning a generative model to sample different candidate trajectories and then using a learned Safety-Filter(SF) to ensure fast inference-time constraint satisfaction. We propose a flow-matching model with a diffusion transformer (DiT) augmented with permutation invariant robot position and map encoders as the generative model. We develop a custom solver for our SF and equip it with a neural network that predicts context-specific initialization. The initialization network is trained in a self-supervised manner, taking advantage of the differentiability of the SF solver. We advance the state-of-the-art in the following respects. First, we show that we can generate trajectories of tens of robots in cluttered environments in a few tens of milliseconds. This is several times faster than existing centralized optimization approaches. Moreover, our approach also generates smoother trajectories orders of magnitude faster than competing baselines based on diffusion models. Second, each component of our approach can be batched, allowing us to solve a few tens of problem instances in a fraction of a second. We believe this is a first such result; no existing approach provides such capabilities. Finally, our approach can generate a diverse set of trajectories between a given set of start and goal locations, which can capture different collision-avoidance behaviors. |
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| Accelerating trajectory optimization with Sobolev-trained diffusion policies | 2026-04-21 | ShowTrajectory Optimization (TO) solvers exploit known system dynamics to compute locally optimal trajectories through iterative improvements. A downside is that each new problem instance is solved independently; therefore, convergence speed and quality of the solution found depend on the initial trajectory proposed. To improve efficiency, a natural approach is to warm-start TO with initial guesses produced by a learned policy trained on trajectories previously generated by the solver. Diffusion-based policies have recently emerged as expressive imitation learning models, making them promising candidates for this role. Yet, a counterintuitive challenge comes from the local optimality of TO demonstrations: when a policy is rolled out, small non-optimal deviations may push it into situations not represented in the training data, triggering compounding errors over long horizons. In this work, we focus on learning-based warm-starting for gradient-based TO solvers that also provide feedback gains. Exploiting this specificity, we derive a first-order loss for Sobolev learning of diffusion-based policies using both trajectories and feedback gains. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that the resulting policy avoids compounding errors, and so can learn from very few trajectories to provide initial guesses reducing solving time by |
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| Handling and Interpreting Missing Modalities in Patient Clinical Trajectories via Autoregressive Sequence Modeling | 2026-04-20 | ShowAn active challenge in developing multimodal machine learning (ML) models for healthcare is handling missing modalities during training and deployment. As clinical datasets are inherently temporal and sparse in terms of modality presence, capturing the underlying predictive signal via diagnostic multimodal ML models while retaining model explainability remains an ongoing challenge. In this work, we address this by re-framing clinical diagnosis as an autoregressive sequence modeling task, utilizing causal decoders from large language models (LLMs) to model a patient's multimodal trajectory. We first introduce a missingness-aware contrastive pre-training objective that integrates multiple modalities in datasets with missingness in a shared latent space. We then show that autoregressive sequence modeling with transformer-based architectures outperforms baselines on the MIMIC-IV and eICU fine-tuning benchmarks. Finally, we use interpretability techniques to move beyond performance boosts and find that across various patient stays, removing modalities leads to divergent behavior that our contrastive pre-training mitigates. By abstracting clinical diagnosis as sequence modeling and interpreting patient stay trajectories, we develop a framework to profile and handle missing modalities while addressing the canonical desideratum of safe, transparent clinical AI. |
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| Semantic Step Prediction: Multi-Step Latent Forecasting in LLM Reasoning Trajectories via Step Sampling | 2026-04-20 | ShowSemantic Tube Prediction (STP) leverages representation geometric to regularize LLM hidden-state trajectories toward locally linear geodesics during fine-tuning, thereby greatly improving data efficiency. The original STP recipe samples random token sub-spans, which is compatible with the base large language model (LLM) training architecture. Inspired by STP, we are interested to investigate whether the sampling position can further enhance the semantic structure of multi-step reasoning, and hence affect its geometric impact. We applied STP at consecutive semantic reasoning step boundaries and achieved 168x more accurate multi-step latent prediction than frozen baselines on ProcessBench (3,400 samples), compared to only 4x for the random-token STP. Probing the latent manifold with a learned non-linear predictor reveals that STP-shaped trajectories are smooth curves, not straight lines: a 3-layer MLP reduces prediction error by a further 3-12x over linear extrapolation on step-boundary models. Removing the language modeling loss yields trajectories that are 2x more MLP-predictable than the combined loss, revealing a tradeoff between generation quality and geometric purity. Our results identify sampling position as the critical variable in geometric regularization and establish multi-step latent prediction MSE as a new evaluation metric for this class of methods. |
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| DAG-STL: A Hierarchical Framework for Zero-Shot Trajectory Planning under Signal Temporal Logic Specifications | 2026-04-20 | ShowSignal Temporal Logic (STL) is a powerful language for specifying temporally structured robotic tasks. Planning executable trajectories under STL constraints remains difficult when system dynamics and environment structure are not analytically available. Existing methods typically either assume explicit models or learn task-specific behaviors, limiting zero-shot generalization to unseen STL tasks. In this work, we study offline STL planning under unknown dynamics using only task-agnostic trajectory data. Our central design philosophy is to separate logical reasoning from trajectory realization. We instantiate this idea in DAG-STL, a hierarchical framework that converts long-horizon STL planning into three stages. It first decomposes an STL formula into reachability and invariance progress conditions linked by shared timing constraints. It then allocates timed waypoints using learned reachability-time estimates. Finally, it synthesizes trajectories between these waypoints with a diffusion-based generator. This decomposition--allocation--generation pipeline reduces global planning to shorter, better-supported subproblems. To bridge the gap between planning-level correctness and execution-level feasibility, we further introduce a rollout-free dynamic consistency metric, an anytime refinement search procedure for improving multiple allocation hypotheses under finite budgets, and a hierarchical online replanning mechanism for execution-time recovery. Experiments in Maze2D, OGBench AntMaze, and the Cube domain show that DAG-STL substantially outperforms direct robustness-guided diffusion on complex long-horizon STL tasks and generalizes across navigation and manipulation settings. In a custom environment with an optimization-based reference, DAG-STL recovers most model-solvable tasks while retaining a clear computational advantage over direct optimization based on the explicit system model. |
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| Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction | 2026-04-20 | ShowHuman behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks. |
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| AnchorRefine: Synergy-Manipulation Based on Trajectory Anchor and Residual Refinement for Vision-Language-Action Models | 2026-04-20 | ShowPrecision-critical manipulation requires both global trajectory organization and local execution correction, yet most vision-language-action (VLA) policies generate actions within a single unified space. This monolithic formulation forces macro-level transport and micro-level refinement to be optimized under the same objective, causing large motions to dominate learning while suppressing small but failure-critical corrective signals. In contrast, human manipulation is structured by global movement planning together with continuous local adjustment during execution. Motivated by this principle, we propose AnchorRefine, a hierarchical framework that factorizes VLA action modeling into trajectory anchor and residual refinement. The anchor planner predicts a coarse motion scaffold, while the refinement module corrects execution-level deviations to improve geometric and contact precision. We further introduce a decision-aware gripper refinement mechanism to better capture the discrete and boundary-sensitive nature of gripper control. Experiments on LIBERO, CALVIN, and real-robot tasks demonstrate that AnchorRefine consistently improves both regression-based and diffusion-based VLA backbones, yielding gains of up to 7.8% in simulation success rate and 18% in real-world success rate. |
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| Stratagem: Learning Transferable Reasoning via Trajectory-Modulated Game Self-Play | 2026-04-20 | ShowGames offer a compelling paradigm for developing general reasoning capabilities in language models, as they naturally demand strategic planning, probabilistic inference, and adaptive decision-making. However, existing self-play approaches rely solely on terminal game outcomes, providing no mechanism to distinguish transferable reasoning patterns from game-specific heuristics. We present STRATAGEM, which addresses two fundamental barriers to reasoning transfer: domain specificity, where learned patterns remain anchored in game semantics, and contextual stasis, where static game contexts fail to cultivate progressive reasoning. STRATAGEM selectively reinforces trajectories exhibiting abstract, domain-agnostic reasoning through a Reasoning Transferability Coefficient, while incentivizing adaptive reasoning development via a Reasoning Evolution Reward. Experiments across mathematical reasoning, general reasoning, and code generation benchmarks demonstrate substantial improvements, with particularly strong gains on competition-level mathematics where multi-step reasoning is critical. Ablation studies and human evaluation confirm that both components contribute to transferable reasoning. |
ACL 2026 Main |
| Terminal Wrench: A Dataset of 331 Reward-Hackable Environments and 3,632 Exploit Trajectories | 2026-04-19 | ShowWe release Terminal Wrench, a subset of 331 terminal-agent benchmark environments, copied from the popular open benchmarks that are demonstrably reward-hackable. The data set includes 3,632 hack trajectories and 2,352 legitimate baseline trajectories across three frontier models (Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.4). Each entry preserves the original task definition alongside full attack trajectories that show how the verifier was bypassed. It also includes cases where the task was not solved as intended. The tasks span system administration, machine learning, software engineering, and security challenges; the exploits range from simple output spoofing to stack-frame introspection, standard-library patching, and rootkit-style binary hijacking. Crucially, these exploits are specific to each task, rather than the evaluation harness, making them harder to patch. We also present a monitorability study in which hack trajectories are sanitized or stripped of reasoning traces and then scored by an LLM judge, showing that detection degrades meaningfully when chain-of-thought is removed (AUC drops from 0.97 to 0.92). The data set is publicly available at https://github.com/few-sh/terminal-wrench. |
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| Waking Up Blind: Cold-Start Optimization of Supervision-Free Agentic Trajectories for Grounded Visual Perception | 2026-04-19 | ShowSmall Vision-Language Models (SVLMs) are efficient task controllers but often suffer from visual brittleness and poor tool orchestration. They typically require expensive supervised trajectory tuning to mitigate these deficits. In this work, we propose Self-supervised Perception Enabled by Cascaded Tool Rollout Alignment (SPECTRA), a supervision-free framework that bootstraps agentic capabilities via Coldstart Reinforcement Learning for SVLMs. SPECTRA enforces Soft Structured Multi-turn Rollouts, a topological constraint that directs agents to explicitly sequence tool derived evidence before synthesis, effectively grounding reasoning in visual observations. We employ a multi-objective reward signal that simultaneously maximizes task correctness, rollout structure, and tool utility, enabling agent to self-discover robust behaviors without human preference labels. We further introduce Tool Instrumental Utility (TIU), a novel metric to quantify tool efficacy in the absence of ground truth. Extensive evaluations across composite and out-of-distribution (MMMU-Pro) benchmarks demonstrate that SPECTRA boosts agentic trajectories, improving task accuracy by up to 5% and tool efficiency by 9%, enabling more efficient multimodal agents that learn effectively from environmental interaction alone. |
ACL 2026 Findings |
| Trajectory-Restricted Optimization Conditions and Geometry-Aware Linear Convergence | 2026-04-18 | ShowLinear convergence of first-order methods is typically characterized by global optimization conditions whose constants reflect worst-case geometry of the ambient space. In high-dimensional or structured problems, these global constants can be arbitrarily conservative and fail to capture the geometry actually encountered by optimization trajectories. In this paper, we develop a trajectory-restricted framework for linear convergence based on localized geometric regularity. We introduce restricted variants of the Polyak--Łojasiewicz inequality, error bound, and quadratic growth conditions that are required to hold only on subsets of the domain. We show that classical convergence guarantees extend under these localized conditions, and in key cases, we develop new arguments that yield explicit relationships between the corresponding constants. The resulting rates are governed by geometric quantities associated with the regions traversed by the algorithm. For polyhedral composite problems, we prove that convergence is controlled by restricted Hoffman constants corresponding to the active polyhedral faces visited along the trajectory. Once the iterates enter a well-conditioned face, the effective condition number improves accordingly. Our work provides a geometric quantification for fast local convergence after active-set or manifold identification and more broadly suggests that linear convergence is fundamentally governed by the geometry of the subsets explored by the algorithm, rather than by worst-case global conditioning. |
37 pages, 2 figures |
| EdgeVTP: Exploration of Latency-efficient Trajectory Prediction for Edge-based Embedded Vision Applications | 2026-04-18 | ShowVehicle trajectory prediction is central to highway perception, but deployment on roadside edge devices necessitates bounded, deterministic end-to-end latency. We present EdgeVTP, an embedded-first trajectory predictor that combines interaction-aware graph modeling with a lightweight transformer backbone and a one-shot curve decoder. By predicting future motion as compact curve parameters (anchored at the last observed position) rather than horizon-scaled autoregressive waypoints, EdgeVTP reduces decoding overhead while producing smooth trajectories. To keep runtime predictable in crowded scenes, we explicitly bound interaction complexity via a locality graph with a hard neighbor cap. Across three highway benchmarks and two Jetson-class platforms, EdgeVTP achieves the lowest measured end-to-end latency under a protocol that includes graph construction and post-processing, while attaining state-of-the-art (SotA) prediction accuracy on two of the three datasets and competitive error on other benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/SeungjinStevenKim/EdgeVTP. |
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| Continuous ageing trajectory representations for knee-aware lifetime prediction of lithium-ion batteries across heterogeneous dataset | 2026-04-17 | ShowAccurate assessment of lithium-ion battery ageing is challenged by cell-to-cell variability, heterogeneous cycling protocols, and limited transferability of data-driven models across datasets. In particular, robust identification of degradation transitions, such as the knee point, and reliable early-life prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) remain open problems. This study proposes a unified framework for battery ageing analysis based on continuous representations of voltage-capacity and capacity-cycle trajectories learned from heterogeneous public datasets (NASA, CALCE, ISU-ILCC). The continuous formulation enables consistent extraction of degradation descriptors, including curvature, plateau length and knee-related metrics, while reducing sensitivity to dataset-specific discretisation. Across more than 250 cells, statistically significant correlations between knee onset and end-of-life (Pearson 0.75-0.84) are observed. Additional early-life analysis confirms that knee-related features retain predictive value when estimated from partial trajectories. Early-life models provide increasingly stable RUL predictions as the number of observed cycles increases, with meaningful predictive performance emerging within the first 5-20 cycles and remain robust under cross-dataset domain shift. The framework integrates continuous modelling, feature extraction and uncertainty-aware prediction, providing an interpretable and dataset-consistent approach demonstrating robustness across heterogeneous dataset types. Compared with conventional discrete or feature-based methods, the proposed representation reduces sensitivity to sampling resolution and improves cross-dataset consistency. The study is limited to laboratory-scale datasets and capacity-based end-of-life definitions. |
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| RopeDreamer: A Kinematic Recurrent State Space Model for Dynamics of Flexible Deformable Linear Objects | 2026-04-30 | ShowThe robotic manipulation of Deformable Linear Objects (DLOs) is a fundamental challenge due to the high-dimensional, non-linear dynamics of flexible structures and the complexity of maintaining topological integrity during contact-rich tasks. While recent data-driven methods have utilized Recurrent and Graph Neural Networks for dynamics modeling, they often struggle with self-intersections and non-physical deformations, such as tangling and link stretching. In this paper, we propose a latent dynamics framework that combines a Recurrent State Space Model with a Quaternionic Kinematic Chain representation to enable robust, long-term forecasting of DLO states. By encoding the DLO as a sequence of relative rotations (quaternions) rather than independent Cartesian positions, we inherently constrain the model to a physically valid manifold that preserves link-length constancy. Furthermore, we introduce a dual-decoder architecture that decouples state reconstruction from future-state prediction, forcing the latent space to capture the underlying physics of deformation. We evaluate our approach on a large-scale simulated dataset of complex pick-and-place trajectories involving self-intersections. Our results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a 40.52% reduction in open-loop prediction error over 50-step horizons compared to the state-of-the-art baseline, while reducing inference time by 31.17%. Our model further maintains superior topological consistency in scenarios with multiple crossings, proving its efficacy as a compositional primitive for long-horizon manipulation planning. |
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| Hyper-Dimensional Fingerprints as Molecular Representations | 2026-04-30 | ShowComputational molecular representations underpin virtual screening, property prediction, and materials discovery. Conventional fingerprints are efficient and deterministic but lose structural information through hash-based compression, particularly at low dimensionalities. Learned representations from graph neural networks recover this expressiveness but require task-specific training and substantial computational resources. Here we introduce hyperdimensional fingerprints (HDF), which replace the learned transformations of message-passing neural networks with algebraic operations on high-dimensional vectors, producing deterministic molecular representations without any training. Across diverse property prediction benchmarks, HDF outperforms conventional fingerprints in the majority of tasks while exhibiting greater consistency across datasets and models. Crucially, HDF embeddings preserve molecular similarity faithfully: at 32 dimensions, distances in HDF space achieve a 0.9 Pearson correlation with graph edit distance, compared to 0.55 for Morgan fingerprints at equivalent size. This structural fidelity persists at low dimensions where hash-based methods degrade, allowing simple nearest-neighbor regression to remain predictive with as few as 64 components. We further demonstrate the practical impact in Bayesian molecular optimization, where HDF-based surrogate models achieve substantially improved sample efficiency in regimes where Morgan fingerprints perform comparably to random search. HDF thus provides a general-purpose, training-free alternative to conventional molecular fingerprints, suggesting that the information loss long accepted as inherent to fixed-length fingerprints is a limitation of the hash-based encoding scheme rather than the fingerprint paradigm itself. |
Code:... |
| On the Expressive Power of GNNs to Solve Linear SDPs | 2026-04-30 | ShowSemidefinite programs (SDPs) are a powerful framework for convex optimization and for constructing strong relaxations of hard combinatorial problems. However, solving large SDPs can be computationally expensive, motivating the use of machine learning models as fast computational surrogates. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a natural candidate in this setting due to their sparsity-awareness and ability to model variable-constraint interactions. In this work, we study what expressive power is sufficient to recover optimal SDP solutions. We first prove negative results showing that standard GNN architectures fail on recovering linear SDP solutions. We then identify a more expressive architecture that captures the key structure of SDPs and can, in particular, emulate the updates of a standard first-order solver. Empirically, on both synthetic and \textsc{SdpLib} benchmarks of various classes of SDPs, this more expressive architecture achieves consistently lower prediction error and objective gap than theoretically weaker baselines. Finally, using the learned high-quality predictions to warm-start the first-order solver yields practical speedups of up to 80%. |
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| AI Models for Depressive Disorder Detection and Diagnosis: A Review | 2026-04-30 | ShowMajor Depressive Disorder is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet its diagnosis still depends largely on subjective clinical assessments. Integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds promise for developing objective, scalable, and timely diagnostic tools. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of state-of-the-art AI methods for depression detection and diagnosis, based on a systematic review of 55 key studies. We introduce a novel hierarchical taxonomy that structures the field by primary clinical task (diagnosis vs. prediction), data modality (text, speech, neuroimaging, multimodal), and computational model class (e.g., graph neural networks, large language models, hybrid approaches). Our in-depth analysis reveals three major trends: the predominance of graph neural networks for modeling brain connectivity, the rise of large language models for linguistic and conversational data, and an emerging focus on multimodal fusion, explainability, and algorithmic fairness. Alongside methodological insights, we provide an overview of prominent public datasets and standard evaluation metrics as a practical guide for researchers. By synthesizing current advances and highlighting open challenges, this survey offers a comprehensive roadmap for future innovation in computational psychiatry. |
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| Evaluating Assurance Cases as Text-Attributed Graphs for Structure and Provenance Analysis | 2026-04-30 | ShowAn assurance case is a structured argument document that justifies claims about a system's requirements or properties, which are supported by evidence. In regulated domains, these are crucial for meeting compliance and safety requirements to industry standards. We propose a graph diagnostic framework for analysing the structure and provenance of assurance cases. We focus on two main tasks: (1) link prediction, to learn and identify connections between argument elements, and (2) graph classification, to differentiate between assurance cases created by a state-of-the-art large language model and those created by humans, aiming to detect bias. We compiled a publicly available dataset of assurance cases, represented as graphs with nodes and edges, supporting both link prediction and provenance analysis. Experiments show that graph neural networks (GNNs) achieve strong link prediction performance (ROC-AUC 0.760) on real assurance cases and generalise well across domains and semi-supervised settings. For provenance detection, GNNs effectively distinguish human-authored from LLM-generated cases (F1 0.94). We observed that LLM-generated assurance cases have different hierarchical linking patterns compared to human-authored cases. Furthermore, existing GNN explanation methods show only moderate faithfulness, revealing a gap between predicted reasoning and the true argument structure. |
10 pa...10 pages, 4 figures, 8 tables. Accepted to EASE 2026 AI Models / Data track, Glasgow, United Kingdom Fix the captions of tables 7 and 8 |
| Toward Scalable SDN for LEO Mega-Constellations: A Graph Learning Approach | 2026-04-30 | ShowTerrestrial network limitations drive the integration of non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), notably mega-constellations comprising thousands of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. While these satellites act as interconnected network switches via inter-satellite links (ISLs), their massive scale creates severe bottlenecks for network management. To address this, we propose a scalable, hierarchical software-defined networking (SDN) framework. Our architecture leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) to compactly represent the constellation topology, and Koopman theory to linearize nonlinear dynamics. Specifically, a Graph Koopman Autoencoder (GKAE) forecasts spatio-temporal behavior within a linear subspace for each orbital shell. A central SDN controller then aggregates these shell-level predictions for globally coordinated control. Simulations on the Starlink constellation demonstrate that our approach achieves at least a 42.8% improvement in spatial compression and a 10.81% improvement in temporal forecasting compared to established baselines, all while utilizing a significantly smaller model footprint. |
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| TypeBandit: Type-Level Context Allocation and Reweighting for Effective Attribute Completion in Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-30 | ShowHeterogeneous graphs are widely used to model multi-relational systems, but missing node attributes remain a major bottleneck for downstream learning. In this paper, we identify and formalize type-dependent information asymmetry: the phenomenon that different node types provide substantially different levels of useful signal for attribute completion. Motivated by this observation, we propose TypeBandit, a lightweight, model-agnostic methodology for heterogeneous attribute completion. TypeBandit combines topology-aware initialization, type-level bandit sampling, and joint representation learning. It allocates a finite global sampling budget across node types, samples representative nodes within each type, and uses the resulting sampled type summaries as shared contextual signals during representation construction. By operating at the type level rather than over each target node's local neighborhood, TypeBandit keeps the adaptive state compact and practical for large heterogeneous graphs. A key advantage of TypeBandit is architectural flexibility. Rather than requiring a new heterogeneous graph neural network architecture, TypeBandit acts as a type-aware front end for representative heterogeneous GNN backbones, including R-GCN, HetGNN, HGT, and SimpleHGN. We further introduce a hybrid pretraining scheme that combines structural degree priors with feature propagation, yielding a more reliable initializer than degree-only pretraining. Under a fixed-split protocol on DBLP, IMDB, and ACM, TypeBandit provides dataset-dependent but practically meaningful gains. Additional ablation, stability, efficiency, semantic-propagation, and sampled OGBN-MAG experiments support TypeBandit as a practical strategy for heterogeneous attribute completion when type-specific information is unevenly distributed and sampling resources are limited. |
17 pages, 4 figures |
| SafeTune: Mitigating Data Poisoning in LLM Fine-Tuning for RTL Code Generation | 2026-04-29 | ShowAs large language models (LLMs) are increasingly fine-tuned for hardware tasks like RTL code generation, the scarcity of high-quality datasets often leads to the use of rapidly assembled or generated training data. These datasets frequently lack security verification and are highly susceptible to data poisoning attacks. Such poisoning can cause models to generate syntactically valid but insecure hardware modules that bypass standard functionality checks. To address this, we present SafeTune, a framework designed to harden LLM-based RTL generation against poisoning, specifically focusing on hardware Trojan (HT) insertion. SafeTune integrates two core components: (i) a Graph Neural Network (GNN) that models structural properties to identify anomalous circuitry patterns during fine-tuning, and (ii) a semantic verification module using text embeddings and an XGBoost classifier to assess prompt security. By coupling structural and semantic knowledge, SafeTune effectively filters poisoned inputs without sacrificing legitimate data. Experimental results demonstrate that SafeTune significantly enhances the robustness and reliability of LLM fine-tuning without requiring modifications to the underlying model architecture. |
This ...This paper will be presented at IEEE VLSI Test Symposium (VTS) 2026. 5 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables |
| LLM-Flax : Generalizable Robotic Task Planning via Neuro-Symbolic Approaches with Large Language Models | 2026-04-29 | ShowDeploying a neuro-symbolic task planner on a new domain today requires significant manual effort: a domain expert must author relaxation and complementary rules, and hundreds of training problems must be solved to supervise a Graph Neural Network (GNN) object scorer. We propose LLM-Flax, a three-stage framework that eliminates all three sources of manual effort using a locally hosted LLM given only a PDDL domain file. Stage 1 automatically generates relaxation and complementary rules via structured prompting with format validation and self-correction. Stage 2 introduces LLM-guided failure recovery with a feasibility-gated budget policy that explicitly reserves API latency cost before each LLM call, preventing the downstream relaxation fallback from being starved. Stage 3 replaces the domain-trained GNN entirely with zero-shot LLM object importance scoring, requiring no training data. We evaluate all three stages on the MazeNamo benchmark across 10x10, 12x12, and 15x15 grids (8 benchmarks total). LLM-Flax achieves average SR 0.945 versus the manual baseline's 0.828 (+0.117), matching or outperforming manual rules on every one of the eight benchmarks. On 12x12 Expert, LLM-Flax attains SR 0.733 where the manual planner fails entirely (SR 0.000); on 15x15 Hard, it achieves SR 1.000 versus Manual's 0.900. Stage 3 demonstrates feasibility (SR 0.720 on 12x12 Hard with no training data) but faces a context-window bottleneck at scale, pointing to the primary open challenge for future work. |
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| Do Larger Models Really Win in Drug Discovery? A Benchmark Assessment of Model Scaling in AI-Driven Molecular Property and Activity Prediction | 2026-04-29 | ShowThe rapid growth of molecular foundation models and general-purpose large language models has encouraged a scale-centric view of artificial intelligence in drug discovery, in which larger pretrained models are expected to supersede compact cheminformatics models and task-specific graph neural networks (GNNs). We test this assumption on 22 molecular property and activity endpoints, including public ADMET and Tox21 benchmarks and two internal anti-infective activity datasets. Across 167,056 held-out task--molecule evaluations under structure-similarity-separated five-fold cross-validation (37,756 ADMET, 77,946 Tox21, 49,266 anti-TB and 2,088 antimalaria), classical machine-learning (ML) models such as RF(ECFP4) and ExtraTrees(RDKit descriptors) win ten primary-metric tasks, GNNs such as GIN and Ligandformer win nine, and pretrained molecular sequence models such as MoLFormer and ChemBERTa2 win three. Rule-based SAR reasoning baselines, represented by GPT5.5-SAR and Opus4.7-SAR, do not win under the prespecified primary metrics, although train-fold-derived SAR knowledge provides measurable but uneven gains for SAR reasoning and interpretation. These results indicate that compact, specialized models remain highly effective for molecular property and activity prediction. The performance differences among classical ML, GNN and pretrained sequence models are often modest and endpoint-dependent, whereas larger or more general models do not provide a universal predictive advantage. Large models may still add value for zero-shot reasoning, SAR interpretation and hypothesis generation, but the results suggest that predictive performance depends on the alignment among molecular representation, inductive bias, data regime, endpoint biology and validation protocol. |
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| PBiLoss: Popularity-Aware Regularization to Improve Fairness in Graph-Based Recommender Systems | 2026-04-29 | ShowRecommender systems based on graph neural networks (GNNs) have been proved to perform well on user-item interactions. However, they commonly suffer from popularity bias -- the tendency to over-recommend popular items -- resulting in less personalization, unfair exposure and lower recommendation diversity. Current solutions address popularity bias through different stages of the recommendation pipeline, including pre-processing methods that may distort data distributions, in-processing approaches which can complicate optimization, and post-processing techniques that are limited in correcting bias already embedded in the learned representations. To address these limitations, we propose PBiLoss, a novel regularization-based loss function designed to explicitly counteract popularity bias in graph-based recommenders. PBiLoss augments traditional training objectives by penalizing the model's inclination toward popular items, thereby encouraging the recommendation of less popular but potentially more personalized content. We introduce two sampling strategies -- Popular Positive (PopPos) and Popular Negative (PopNeg) -- and explore two methods to distinguish popular items -- one based on a fixed popularity threshold and another without any threshold -- making the approach flexible and adaptive. Our proposed method is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly integrated into state-of-the-art graph-based frameworks such as LightGCN and its variants. Extensive experiments carried out on datasets including Epinions, iFashion, and MovieLens highlight the advantages of the PBiLoss for enhancing fairness in recommendations, decreasing PRU and PRI by up to 10%, compared to other baseline models, while maintaining accuracy and other standard metrics intact in the process. |
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| Probabilistic Graphical Model using Graph Neural Networks for Bayesian Inversion of Discrete Structural Component States | 2026-04-29 | ShowThe health condition of components in civil infrastructures can be described by various discrete states according to their performance degradation. Inferring these states from measurable responses is typically an ill-posed inverse problem. Although Bayesian methods are well-suited to tackle such problems, computing the posterior probability density function (PDF) presents challenges. The likelihood function cannot be analytically formulated due to the unclear relationship between discrete states and structural responses, and the high-dimensional state parameters resulting from numerous components severely complicates the computation of the marginal likelihood function. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm for discrete variables based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). The Markov networks are employed as modeling tools, with model parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. It has been proved that inferring this PGM produces the same probabilistic estimation as the posterior PDF derived from Bayesian inference, which effectively solves the above challenges. The inference is accomplished by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and a graph property-based GNN training strategy is developed to enable accurate inference across varying graph scales, thereby significantly reducing the computational overhead in high-dimensional problems. Both synthetic and experimental data are used to validate the proposed framework |
Accep...Accepted by Reliability Engineering & System Safety on 23 February 2026 |
| Unsupervised Graph Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Accounting Subject Relationships | 2026-04-29 | ShowThis paper addresses the problem of anomaly detection in accounting subject association structures, proposing a structured modeling and unsupervised discriminant framework based on graph neural networks. This framework is used to mine stable correspondences between subjects and identify structural deviations from general ledger details and voucher entries. The method first abstracts accounting subjects as graph nodes, and the co-occurrence and debit/credit correspondence of subjects in the same business record are abstracted as weighted edges. The edge weights are characterized by statistical measures such as co-occurrence frequency or amount aggregation, thus forming a period-level accounting subject association graph. In the representation learning stage, a message passing mechanism is used to fuse the node's own attributes and neighborhood context to obtain node embeddings containing structural information. In the anomaly detection stage, the rationality of subject pair connections is estimated through a relation reconstruction decoder, and edge-level anomaly scores are defined based on the degree of deviation in reconstruction probabilities. These scores are then aggregated to obtain node-level risk ranking and local anomaly localization. This framework can simultaneously capture local substructure anomalies and cross-community anomaly connections without relying on anomaly labeling, outputting traceable subject pair risk clues. Comparative experiments demonstrate more stable comprehensive discriminant capabilities and higher top-ranking accuracy. |
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| Momentum-Conserving Graph Neural Networks for Deformable Objects | 2026-04-28 | ShowGraph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a versatile and efficient option for modeling the dynamic behavior of deformable materials. While GNNs generalize readily to arbitrary shapes, mesh topologies, and material parameters, existing architectures struggle to correctly predict the temporal evolution of key physical quantities such as linear and angular momentum. In this work, we propose MomentumGNN -- a novel architecture designed to accurately track momentum by construction. Unlike existing GNNs that output unconstrained nodal accelerations, our model predicts per-edge stretching and bending impulses which guarantee the preservation of linear and angular momentum. We train our network in an unsupervised fashion using a physics-based loss, and we show that our method outperforms baselines in a number of common scenarios where momentum plays a pivotal role. |
Accepted to 3DV 2026 |
| Explainable AI for Jet Tagging: A Comparative Study of GNNExplainer, GNNShap, and GradCAM for Jet Tagging in the Lund Jet Plane | 2026-04-28 | ShowGraph neural networks such as ParticleNet and transformer based networks on point clouds such as ParticleTransformer achieve state-of-the-art performance on jet tagging benchmarks at the Large Hadron Collider, yet the physical reasoning behind their predictions remains opaque. We present different methods, i.e. perturbation-based (GNNExplainer), Shapley-value-based (GNNShap), and gradient-based (GRADCam); adapted to operate on LundNet's Lund-plane graph representation. Leveraging the fact that each node in the Lund plane corresponds to a physically meaningful parton splitting, we construct Monte Carlo truth explanation masks and introduce a physics-informed evaluation framework that goes beyond standard fidelity metrics. We perform the analysis in three transverse-momentum bins ( |
25 pa...25 pages, 9 figures. Comments are welcome |
| Disentangling Popularity and Quality: An Edge Classification Approach for Fair Recommendation | 2026-04-28 | ShowGraph neural networks (GNNs) have proven to be an effective tool for enhancing the performance of recommender systems. However, these systems often suffer from popularity bias, leading to an unfair advantage for frequently interacted items, while overlooking high-quality but less popular items. In this paper, we propose a GNN-based recommendation model that disentangles popularity and quality to address this issue. Unlike existing methods that treat all long-tail items uniformly, our approach introduces an edge classification technique to differentiate between popularity bias and genuine quality disparities among items. Furthermore, it uses cost-sensitive learning to adjust the misclassification penalties, ensuring that underrepresented yet relevant items are not unfairly disregarded. Experimental results demonstrate improvements in fairness metrics by approximately |
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| Mini-Batch Class Composition Bias in Link Prediction | 2026-04-28 | ShowPrior work on node classification has shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can learn representations that transfer across graphs, when underlying graph properties are shared. For a fixed graph, one would then expect GNNs trained for link prediction to learn a representation consistent with that learnt for node classification. We show this intuition does not hold in the general case. Instead, we find popular link prediction models can learn a trivial mini-batch dependent heuristic, enabled by batch-normalisation layers, to solve the edge classification task. When correcting for this, we observe increased alignment of the network representation with node-class relevant features, suggesting the network has learnt a graph representation that better aligns with the underlying graph's properties. Our findings suggest that standard link prediction training may be leading us to overestimate link predictors' ability to learn a generalised representation of a graph that is consistent across tasks. |
Accep...Accepted at GCLR 2026: the 5th Workshop on Graphs and more Complex Structures For Learning and Reasoning, colocated with AAAI 2026 |
| PLMGH: What Matters in PLM-GNN Hybrids for Code Classification and Vulnerability Detection | 2026-04-28 | ShowCode understanding models increasingly rely on pretrained language models (PLMs) and graph neural networks (GNNs), which capture complementary semantic and structural information. We conduct a controlled empirical study of PLM-GNN hybrids for code classification and vulnerability detection tasks by systematically pairing three code-specialized PLMs with three foundational GNN architectures. We compare these hybrids against PLM-only and GNN-only baselines on Java250 and Devign, including an identifier-obfuscation setting. Across both tasks, hybrids consistently outperform GNN-only baselines and often improve ranking quality over frozen PLMs. On Devign, performance and robustness are more sensitive to the PLM feature source than to the GNN backbone. We also find that larger PLMs are not necessarily better feature extractors in this pipeline, and that the PLM choice has more impact than the GNN choice. Finally, we distill these findings into practical guidelines for PLM-GNN design choices in code classification and vulnerability detection. |
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| Benchmarking bandgap prediction in semiconductors under experimental and realistic evaluation settings | 2026-04-28 | ShowAccurate bandgap prediction is crucial for semiconductor applications, yet machine learning models trained on computational data often struggle to generalize to experimental bandgap measurements. Challenges related to data fidelity, domain generalization, and model interpretability remain insufficiently addressed in existing evaluation frameworks. To bridge this gap, we introduce RealMat-BaG, a benchmark for assessing model reliability under experimentally relevant conditions. We curate an open-access dataset of experimental bandgaps with aligned crystal structures and compare graph neural networks as well as classical machine learning baselines. Our framework evaluates performance across statistical and domain-based splits, examines transfer from DFT-computed to experimental bandgaps, and analyzes interpretability at both elemental-property and structural levels. Our results reveal the fundamental generalization limitations of current bandgap prediction models and establish a benchmark aligned with experimental measurements for developing more reliable learning strategies for materials discovery. |
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| On Halting vs Converging in Recurrent Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-28 | ShowRecurrent Graph Neural Networks (RGNNs) extend standard GNNs by iterating message-passing until some stopping condition is met. Various RGNN models have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we study three such models: converging RGNNs, where all vertex representations must stabilise; output-converging RGNNs, where only the output classifications must stabilise; and halting RGNNs, where a per-vertex halting classifier determines when to stop. We establish expressiveness relationships between these models: over undirected graphs, converging RGNNs are equally expressive as graded-bisimulation-invariant halting RGNNs, while output-converging RGNNs are at least as expressive. Combined with prior results on halting RGNNs, this shows that, relative to the classifiers expressible in monadic second-order logic (MSO), converging RGNNs express exactly the graded modal |
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| Operational Feature Fingerprints of Graph Datasets via a White-Box Signal-Subspace Probe | 2026-04-28 | ShowGraph neural networks achieve strong node-classification accuracy, but learned message passing entangles ego attributes, neighborhood smoothing, high-pass graph differences, class geometry, and classifier-boundary effects inside opaque representations. This obscures why nodes are classified as they are and which graph-learning mechanisms a dataset requires. We propose WG-SRC, a white-box signal-subspace probe for prediction and graph dataset diagnosis. WG-SRC replaces learned message passing with a fixed, named graph-signal dictionary containing raw features, row- and symmetric-normalized low-pass propagation, and high-pass graph differences. It combines Fisher coordinate selection, class-wise PCA subspaces, closed-form multi-alpha ridge classification, and validation-based score fusion, so prediction and analysis rely on explicit class subspaces, energy-controlled dimensions, and closed-form linear decisions. As a white-box graph-learning instrument, WG-SRC uses predictive performance to validate its diagnostics. Across six node-classification datasets, it remains competitive with reproduced baselines and achieves positive average gain under aligned splits. Its atlas decomposes behavior into raw-feature, low-pass, high-pass, class-geometric, and ridge-boundary components. The resulting fingerprints distinguish low-pass-dominated Amazon graphs, mixed high-pass and class-geometrically complex Chameleon behavior, and raw- or boundary-sensitive WebKB graphs. Aligned interventions show when high-pass blocks act as removable noise, when raw or graph-derived signals should be preserved, and when ridge correction matters. WG-SRC therefore serves both as a functioning white-box classifier and as a dataset-fingerprinting probe, enabling fingerprint-conditioned analysis of how black-box model components behave under different graph-signal conditions. |
21 pa...21 pages, 10 figures, 7 tables |
| GraphPL: Leveraging GNN for Efficient and Robust Modalities Imputation in Patchwork Learning | 2026-04-28 | ShowCurrent research on distributed multi-modal learning typically assumes that clients can access complete information across all modalities, which may not hold in practice. In this paper, we explore patchwork learning, in which the modalities available to different clients vary, and the objective is to impute the missing modalities for each client in an unsupervised manner. Existing methods are shown not to fully utilize the modality information as they tend to rely on only a subset of the observed modalities. To address this issue, we propose GraphPL, which combines graph neural networks with patchwork learning to flexibly integrate all observed modalities and remains robust with noisy inputs. Experimental results show that GraphPL achieves SOTA performance on benchmark datasets. Our results on real-world distributed electronic health record dataset show GraphPL learns strong downstream features and enables tasks like disease prediction via superior modality imputation. |
Accep...Accepted at ICASSP 2026. This is a preprint of the work |
| A Survey of Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning with Graph Neural Network-Based Communication | 2026-04-28 | ShowIn multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), the integration of a communication mechanism, allowing agents to better learn to coordinate their actions and converge on their objectives by sharing information. Based on an interaction graph, a subclass of methods employs graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn the communication, enabling agents to improve their internal representations by enriching them with information exchanged. With growing research, we note a lack of explicit structure and framework to distinguish and classify MARL approaches with communication based on GNNs. Thus, this paper surveys recent works in this field. We propose a generalized GNN-based communication process with the goal of making the underlying concepts behind the methods more obvious and accessible. |
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| FARM: Enhancing Molecular Representations with Functional Group Awareness | 2026-04-28 | ShowWe introduce Functional Group-Aware Representations for Small Molecules (FARM), a novel foundation model designed to bridge the gap between SMILES, natural language, and molecular graphs. The key idea behind FARM is the incorporation of functional group (FG) annotations at the atomic level, enabling both FG-enhanced SMILES and FG graphs. In this representation, SMILES strings are enriched with functional group information that identifies the group membership of each atom, while the FG graph captures molecular structure by representing how functional groups are connected. This tokenization injects chemical knowledge into SMILES and expands the effective molecular vocabulary, making the representation more suitable for Transformer-based models and more aligned with natural language structure. FARM learns molecular representations from two complementary perspectives to jointly encode functional and structural information. Masked language modeling on FG-enhanced SMILES captures atom-level features enriched with functional context, while graph neural networks model higher-level molecular topology through functional group connectivity. Contrastive learning is then used to align these two views into a unified embedding space, ensuring that both atom-level detail and functional group structure are jointly represented. We evaluate FARM on the MoleculeNet benchmark and achieve state-of-the-art performance on 8 out of 13 tasks. We further validate its generalization ability on a photostability dataset for quantum mechanical properties. These results demonstrate that FARM improves molecular representation learning, supports strong transfer learning across drug discovery and materials science, and enables broad applications in pharmaceutical research and functional material design. |
Prepr...Preprint. The code is available at: https://github.com/thaonguyen217/farm_molecular_representation |
| Grothendieck Graph Neural Networks Framework: An Algebraic Platform for Crafting Topology-Aware GNNs | 2026-04-28 | ShowGraph Neural Networks (GNNs) are almost universally built on a single primitive: the neighborhood. Regardless of architectural variations, message passing ultimately aggregates over neighborhoods, which intrinsically limits expressivity and often yields power no stronger than the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) test. In this work, we challenge this primitive. We introduce the Grothendieck Graph Neural Networks (GkGNN) framework, which provides a strict algebraic extension of neighborhoods to covers, and in doing so replaces neighborhoods as the fundamental objects of message passing. Neighborhoods and adjacency matrices are recovered as special cases, while covers enable a principled and flexible foundation for defining topology-aware propagation schemes. GkGNN formalizes covers and systematically translates them into matrices, analogously to how adjacency matrices encode neighborhoods, enabling both theoretical analysis and practical implementation. Within this framework, we introduce the cover of sieves, inspired by category theory, which captures rich topological structure. Based on this cover, we design Sieve Neural Networks (SNN), a canonical fixed-cover instantiation that generalizes the adjacency matrix. Experiments show that SNN achieves zero observed failures on challenging graph isomorphism benchmarks (SRG, CSL, BREC) and substantially improves topology-aware evaluation via a controlled label-propagation probe. These results establish GkGNN as a principled foundational framework for replacing neighborhoods in GNNs. |
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| Fraud Detection in Cryptocurrency Markets with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-27 | ShowTechnological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes. |
9 pag...9 pages, 3 figures, Accepted at the SDS2026: IEEE Swiss Conference on Data Science and AI |
| Comparative Evaluation of Modern Deep Learning Methodologies for Portfolio Optimization | 2026-04-27 | ShowThis study proposes a portfolio optimization framework that integrates advanced deep learning architectures with traditional financial models to enhance risk-adjusted performance. Using historical data from 2015-2023 across equities, ETFs, and bonds, the research evaluates the predictive power of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), Transformers, and Autoencoders. The models jointly address covariance estimation, return forecasting, dynamic asset allocation, and dimensionality reduction. Hybrid approaches such as Transformer+GNN and Autoencoder+DRL are also explored to capture both relational and temporal market structures. Performance is assessed through backtesting using metrics including volatility, cumulative return, maximum drawdown, annualized return, and Sharpe ratio across seven strategies, including Equal-Weighted, 60/40 allocation, and Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO). Results show that hybrid models provide superior stability and risk control, with Transformer+GNN achieving the lowest volatility and drawdown. MVO, when paired with well-calibrated inputs, delivers the highest cumulative return and Sharpe ratio, highlighting the continued relevance of traditional methods. Standalone DRL underperforms due to limited structural awareness, while Autoencoders exhibit behavior similar to Equal-Weight strategies, emphasizing the need for dynamic policy learning. These findings align with existing literature on relational modeling and feature compression in finance. Overall, the study demonstrates that combining deep learning with financial theory yields robust and adaptive portfolio strategies and suggests exploring latent representations within traditional optimization frameworks to improve scalability and performance. |
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| PathMoG: A Pathway-Centric Modular Graph Neural Network for Multi-Omics Survival Prediction | 2026-04-27 | ShowCancer survival prediction from multi-omics data remains challenging because prognostic signals are high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and distributed across interacting genes and pathways. We propose PathMoG, a pathway-centric modular graph neural network for multi-omics survival prediction. PathMoG reorganizes genome-scale inputs into 354 KEGG-informed pathway modules, introduces a Hierarchical Omics Modulation module to condition gene-expression representations on mutation, copy number variation, pathway, and clinical context, and uses dual-level attention to capture both intra-pathway driver signals and inter-pathway clinical relevance. We evaluated PathMoG on 5,650 patients across 10 TCGA cancer types and observed consistent improvements over representative survival baselines. The framework further provides gene-level, pathway-level, and patient-level interpretability, supporting biologically grounded and clinically relevant risk stratification. |
9 pag...9 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Source code available at https://github.com/wangzoyou/pathmog |
| Question-Adaptive Graph Learning for Multi-hop Retrieval Augmented Generation | 2026-04-27 | ShowRetrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has demonstrated its ability to enhance Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge sources. However, multi-hop questions, which require the identification of multiple knowledge targets to form a synthesized answer, raise new challenges for RAG systems. Under the multi-hop settings, existing methods often struggle to fully understand the questions with complex semantic structures and are susceptible to irrelevant noise during the retrieval of multiple information targets. To address these limitations, we propose a novel graph representation learning framework for multi-hop question retrieval. We first introduce a Multi-information Level Knowledge Graph (Multi-L KG) to model various information levels for a more comprehensive understanding of multi-hop questions. Based on this, we design a Question-Adaptive Graph Neural Network (Quest-GNN) for representation learning on the Multi-L KG. Quest-GNN employs intra/inter-level message passing mechanisms, and in each message passing the information aggregation is guided by the question, which not only facilitates multi-granular information aggregation but also significantly reduces the impact of noise. To enhance its ability to learn robust representations, we further propose two synthesized data generation strategies for pre-training the Quest-GNN. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in multi-hop scenarios, especially in high-hop questions the improvement can reach 33.8%. The code is available at: https://github.com/Jerry2398/QSGNN. |
Accep...Accepted by SIGIR2026 |
| Graph-augmented Segmentation of Complex Shapes in Laser Powder bed Fusion for Enhanced In Situ Inspection | 2026-04-27 | ShowThe technological maturity of in situ inspection and monitoring methods in additive manufacturing is steadily increasing, enabling more efficient and practical qualification procedures. In this context, image segmentation of powder bed images in Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) has been investigated by various authors, leveraging both edge detection and machine learning approaches to identify deviations from nominal geometry. Despite these developments, several challenges remain, including the sensitivity of segmentation performance to industrial illumination conditions and layer-to-layer variability in pixel intensity patterns. The study addresses these limitations by proposing a graph-augmented segmentation approach. The underlying principle consists of preserving the geometrical information at a global level rather than at pixel-wise level, modeling dependencies and relational information among spatial regions with a Graph Neural Network bottleneck embedded into a U-Net architecture. This allows enhancing the consistency and accuracy of the geometry reconstruction in the presence of spatial and layer-wise photometric variability systematically faced in real data. The method is evaluated against benchmark techniques for the in situ reconstruction of lattice structures produced by L-PBF, demonstrating its potential as a scalable solution for robust in situ inspection and geometric verification in industrial environments. |
Submi...Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering (T-ASE) |
| Time-varying Interaction Graph ODE for Dynamic Graph Representation Learning | 2026-04-27 | ShowGraph neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) combine neural ODE with the message passing mechanism of Graph Neural Networks (GNN), providing a continuous-time modeling method for graph representation learning. However, in dynamic graph scenarios, existing graph neural ODEs typically employ a unified message passing mechanism, assuming that inter-node interactions share the same message passing function at any time, which makes it challenging to capture the diversity and time-varying nature of inter-node interaction patterns. To address this, we propose Time-varying Interaction Graph Ordinary Differential Equations (TI-ODE). The core idea of TI-ODE is to decompose the evolution function of a graph ODE into a set of learnable interaction basis functions, where each basis function corresponds to a distinct type of inter-node interaction. These basis functions are dynamically combined through time-dependent learnable weights, enabling inter-node interaction patterns to adaptively evolve over time. Experimental results on six dynamic graph datasets demonstrate that TI-ODE consistently outperforms existing methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance on attribute prediction tasks, and experiments on the \textit{Covid} dataset further verify the interpretability and generalizability of our TI-ODE. Furthermore, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that TI-ODE exhibits superior robustness compared to models utilizing a unified message-passing mechanism. |
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| Explaining Temporal Graph Predictions With Shapley Values | 2026-04-27 | ShowTemporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their superior predictive performance by combining both spatial and temporal information. However, how these models utilize the information to make predictions is rather unexplored, leading to potentially faulty or biased models. This work introduces two novel model-agnostic explainers for local explanations of TGNNs based on Shapley and Owen values. The first method, an event-level (edge-level) Shapley explainer, applies the KernelSHAP algorithm to estimate contribution scores for individual temporal events, providing interpretable descriptions for model behavior. The second, a feature-level Shapley explainer, extends this framework by decomposing event-level Shapley values into Owen values, and thereby uncovers hierarchical dependencies of the event and its features. The explainers outperform SOTA explainers on different metrics and datasets. Additionally, the Feature Explainer reveals a faulty extraction of actual timestamps of a commonly used TGAT implementation, helping to further understand performance drops on very sparse explanations. |
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| Query-Efficient Quantum Approximate Optimization via Graph-Conditioned Trust Regions | 2026-04-27 | ShowIn low-depth implementations of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), the dominant cost is often the number of objective evaluations rather than circuit depth. We introduce a graph-conditioned trust-region method for reducing this query cost. A graph neural network predicts a Gaussian distribution N(mu, Sigma) over QAOA angles. The mean initializes a local optimizer, the covariance defines an ellipsoidal trust region that constrains the search, and the predicted uncertainty determines an instance-dependent evaluation budget. Thus the learned distribution defines a search policy rather than only an initial parameter estimate. Under explicit assumptions on local smoothness, curvature, calibration, and noise, we derive bounds on objective degradation within the trust region, lower bounds on gradient variance, preservation of expected objective ordering under depolarizing noise, and finite-sample coverage guarantees. We evaluate the method for MaxCut at depth p = 2 on Erdos-Renyi, 3-regular, Barabasi-Albert, and Watts-Strogatz graphs with n = 8-16 vertices. Relative to random restarts and the strongest learned point-prediction baseline, the method reduces the mean number of circuit evaluations from 343 and 85 to 45 +/- 7, while maintaining sampled approximation ratios within 3 percentage points of concentration-based heuristics. The method does not improve absolute approximation ratios; its advantage is reduced query cost at comparable solution quality. The predictive uncertainty is calibrated in the experiments, with ECE = 0.052 and Spearman correlation rho = 0.770, and the learned trust regions transfer to graph sizes not used during training. The results identify a low-depth, query-dominated regime in which graph-conditioned trust regions reduce the query cost of QAOA without modifying the ansatz. |
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| A method for detecting spatio-temporal correlation anomalies of WSN nodes based on topological information enhancement and time-frequency feature extraction | 2026-04-27 | ShowExisting anomaly detection methods for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) generally suffer from insufficient extraction of spatio-temporal correlation features, reliance on either timedomain or frequencydomain information alone, and high computational overhead. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a topology-enhanced spatio-temporal feature fusion anomaly detection method, TE-MSTAD. First, building upon the RWKV model with linear attention mechanisms, a Cross modal Feature Extraction (CFE) module is introduced to fully extract spatial correlation features among multiple nodes while reducing computational resource consumption. Second, a strategy is designed to construct an adjacency matrix by jointly learning spatial correlation from time-frequency domain features. Different graph neural networks are integrated to enhance spatial correlation feature extraction, thereby fully capturing spatial relationships among multiple nodes. Finally, a dualbranch network TE-MSTAD is designed for time-frequency domain feature fusion, overcoming the limitations of relying solely on the time or frequency domain to improve WSN anomaly detection performance. Testing on both public and realworld datasets demonstrates that the TE-MSTAD model achieves F1 scores of 92.52% and 93.28%, respectively, exhibiting superior detection performance and generalization capabilities compared to existing methods. |
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| Crystal structure prediction using graph neural combinatorial optimization | 2026-04-27 | ShowCrystalline materials are widely used in technological applications, yet their discovery remains a significant challenge. As their properties are driven by structure, crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods play a central role in computational approaches aiming to accelerate this process. Previously, CSP has been approached from a combinatorial optimization perspective, with the core challenge of allocating atoms on a fine grid of predefined discrete positions within a unit cell while minimizing their interaction energy. Exact mathematical optimization methods provide guaranteed solutions, but they become computationally expensive for large-scale instances, where the atomic configuration space grows rapidly, particularly in the absence of additional symmetry constraints. In this work, we introduce a neural combinatorial optimization approach to the atom allocation challenge and, subsequently, CSP, based on graph neural networks (GNNs), which can effectively sample from the distribution of feasible structures in an unsupervised manner. We leverage expander graphs to construct computational graphs over discrete positions that capture both short- and long-range interactions between atoms, and employ the Gumbel-Sinkhorn approach to enforce the desired stoichiometry of the generated structures. We demonstrate that our method outperforms classical heuristic approaches and is competitive with a commercial optimization solver across a range of chemical compositions. This enables the use of ever-expanding GPU infrastructure to tackle the inherent combinatorial challenges of CSP, paving the way for scaling beyond current capabilities. |
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| Verifying Quantized GNNs With Readout Is Decidable But Highly Intractable | 2026-04-26 | ShowWe introduce a logical language for reasoning about quantized aggregate-combine graph neural networks with global readout (ACR-GNNs). We provide a logical characterization and use it to prove that verification tasks for quantized GNNs with readout are (co)NEXPTIME-complete. This result implies that the verification of quantized GNNs is computationally intractable, prompting substantial research efforts toward ensuring the safety of GNN-based systems. We also experimentally demonstrate that quantized ACR-GNN models are lightweight while maintaining good accuracy and generalization capabilities with respect to non-quantized models. |
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| Reliable Microservice Tail Latency Prediction via Decoupled Dual-Stream Learning and Gradient Modulation | 2026-04-26 | ShowMicroservice architectures enable scalable cloud-native applications; however, the distributed nature of these systems complicates the maintenance of strict Service Level Objectives. Accurately predicting window-level P95 tail latency remains difficult due to the complex interactions between software workload propagation and infrastructure resource limits. Existing predictive models struggle to capture these dynamics because the lack of explicit separation between traffic metrics and resource metrics causes misaligned feature representations. Building on this suboptimal data treatment, the unified architectures of prior approaches fail to isolate cascading service dependencies from localized processing capacity. Due to this entanglement, joint training suffers from an optimization imbalance wherein resource features converge faster and dominate gradient updates, thereby preventing the learning of underlying software topologies. To address these challenges, we propose USRFNet, a dual-stream framework that separates the modeling of demand and capacity. The proposed framework utilizes a Graph Neural Network to model the spatial interactions of traffic workloads across software-level service dependencies, and a gating MLP to independently extract infrastructure-level resource dynamics. The model then integrates these representations through hierarchical tensor fusion. To resolve the training imbalance, we introduce a Reliability-Aware Gradient Modulation strategy that dynamically rescales gradients based on the generalization ratio of each data stream. Experiments on three large-scale real-world benchmarks demonstrate that USRFNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy. Specifically, compared to the best-performing baselines, the proposed framework achieves relative MAPE reductions ranging from 15.62% to 26.11% across the evaluated datasets. |
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| Layer Embedding Deep Fusion Graph Neural Network | 2026-04-25 | ShowGraph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated impressive performance in learning representations from graph-structured data. However, their message-passing mechanism inherently relies on the assumption of label consistency among connected nodes, limiting their applicability to low-homophily settings. Moreover, since message passing operates as a hierarchical diffusion process, GNNs face challenges in capturing long-range dependencies. As network depth increases, the structural noise along heterophilic edges tends to be amplified, resulting in over-smoothing. This issue becomes especially prominent in highly heterophilic graphs, where the propagation of inconsistent semantics across the topology continually exacerbates misaggregation. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework named Layer Embedding Deep Fusion Graph Neural Network (LEDF-GNN). Specifically, we design a Layer Embedding Deep Fusion (LEDF) operator that nonlinearly fuses multi-layer embeddings to capture inter-layer dependencies and effectively alleviate deep propagation degradation. Meanwhile, to mitigate structural heterophily, LEDF-GNN employs a Dual-Topology Parallel Strategy (DTPS) that simultaneously leverages the original and reconstructed topologies, allowing for adaptive structure-semantics co-optimization under diverse homophily conditions. Extensive semi-supervised classification experiments on the citation and image benchmarks demonstrate that, under both homophilic and heterophilic settings, LEDF-GNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating its effectiveness and generalization capability across diverse graph types. |
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| HBGSA: Hydrogen Bond Graph with Self-Attention for Drug-Target Binding Affinity Prediction | 2026-04-25 | ShowAccurate prediction of drug-target binding affinity accelerates drug discovery by prioritizing compounds for experimental validation. Current methods face three limitations: sequence-based approaches discard spatial geometric constraints, structure-based methods fail to exploit hydrogen bond features, and conventional loss functions neglect prediction-target correlation, a key factor for identifying high-affinity compounds in virtual screening. We developed HBGSA (Hydrogen Bond Graph with Self-Attention), a 3.06M-parameter model that encodes hydrogen bond spatial features. HBGSA uses graph neural networks to model hydrogen bond spatial topology with self-attention enhancement and Pearson correlation loss. Experimental results on PDBbind Core Set and CSAR-HiQ dataset demonstrate that HBGSA outperforms baseline methods with strong generalization capability. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of hydrogen bond modeling and Pearson correlation loss. |
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| An Interdisciplinary and Cross-Task Review on Missing Data Imputation | 2026-04-24 | ShowMissing data is a fundamental challenge in data science, significantly hindering analysis and decision-making across a wide range of disciplines, including healthcare, bioinformatics, social science, e-commerce, and industrial monitoring. Despite decades of research and numerous imputation methods, the literature remains fragmented across fields, creating a critical need for a comprehensive synthesis that connects statistical foundations with modern machine learning advances. This work systematically reviews core concepts-including missingness mechanisms, single versus multiple imputation, and different imputation goals-and examines problem characteristics across various domains. It provides a thorough categorization of imputation methods, spanning classical techniques (e.g., regression, the EM algorithm) to modern approaches like low-rank and high-rank matrix completion, deep learning models (autoencoders, GANs, diffusion models, graph neural networks), and large language models. Special attention is given to methods for complex data types, such as tensors, time series, streaming data, graph-structured data, categorical data, and multimodal data. Beyond methodology, we investigate the crucial integration of imputation with downstream tasks like classification, clustering, and anomaly detection, examining both sequential pipelines and joint optimization frameworks. The review also assesses theoretical guarantees, benchmarking resources, and evaluation metrics. Finally, we identify critical challenges and future directions, emphasizing model selection and hyperparameter optimization, the growing importance of privacy-preserving imputation via federated learning, and the pursuit of generalizable models that can adapt across domains and data types, thereby outlining a roadmap for future research. |
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| ASPIRE: Make Spectral Graph Collaborative Filtering Great Again via Adaptive Filter Learning | 2026-04-24 | ShowGraph filter design is central to spectral collaborative filtering, yet most existing methods rely on manually tuned hyperparameters rather than fully learnable filters. We show that this challenge stems from a bias in traditional recommendation objectives, which induces a spectral phenomenon termed low-frequency explosion, thereby fundamentally hindering the effective learning of graph filters. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel adaptive spectral graph collaborative filtering framework (ASPIRE) based on a bi-level optimization objective. Guided by our theoretical analysis, we disentangle the filter learning objective, which in turn leads to excellent recommendation performance, spectral adaptivity, and training stability in practice. Extensive experiments show our learned filters match the performance of carefully engineered task-specific designs. Furthermore, ASPIRE is equally effective in LLM-powered collaborative filtering. Our findings demonstrate that graph filter learning is viable and generalizable, paving the way for more expressive graph neural networks in collaborative filtering. |
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| Eidolon: A Post-Quantum Signature Scheme Based on k-Colorability in the Age of Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-24 | ShowWe propose Eidolon, a post-quantum signature scheme grounded on the NP-complete k-colorability problem. Our construction generalizes the Goldreich-Micali-Wigderson zero-knowledge protocol to arbitrary k >= 3, applies the Fiat-Shamir transform, and uses Merkle-tree commitments to compress signatures from O(tn) to O(t log n). We generate hard instances by planting a coloring while aiming to preserve the statistical profile of random graphs. We present an empirical security analysis of such a scheme against both classical solvers (ILP, DSatur) and a custom graph neural network (GNN) attacker. Experiments show that for n >= 60, neither approach is able to recover a valid coloring matching the planted solution, suggesting that well-engineered k-coloring instances can resist the considered classical and learning-based cryptanalytic approaches. These experiments indicate that the constructed instances resist the attacks considered in our evaluation. |
20 pages, 4 figures |
| Leveraging Teleconnections with Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for Long-Range Extreme Rainfall Forecasting in Thailand | 2026-04-24 | ShowAccurate rainfall forecasting, particularly for extreme events, remains a significant challenge in climatology and the Earth system. This paper presents novel physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) combined with extreme-value analysis techniques to improve gauge-station rainfall predictions across Thailand. The model leverages a graph-structured representation of gauge stations to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns, and it offers explainability through teleconnections. We preprocess relevant climate indices that potentially influence regional rainfall. The proposed Graph Attention Network with Long Short-Term Memory (Attention-LSTM) applies the attention mechanism using initial edge features derived from simple orographic-precipitation physics formulation. The embeddings are subsequently processed by LSTM layers. To address extremes, we perform Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) mapping using the novel Spatial Season-aware Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method, which overcomes limitations of traditional machine-learning models. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms well-established baselines across most regions, including areas prone to extremes, and remains strongly competitive with the state of the art. Compared with the operational forecasting system SEAS5, our real-world application improves extreme-event prediction and offers a practical enhancement to produce high-resolution maps that support decision-making in long-term water management. |
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| Graph-to-Vision: Multi-graph Understanding and Reasoning using Vision-Language Models | 2026-04-24 | ShowRecent advances in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have shown promising capabilities in interpreting visualized graph data, offering a new perspective for graph-structured reasoning beyond traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing studies focus primarily on single-graph reasoning, leaving the critical challenge of multi-graph joint reasoning underexplored. In this work, we introduce the first comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate and enhance the multi-graph reasoning abilities of VLMs. Our benchmark covers four common graph types-knowledge graphs, flowcharts, mind maps, and route maps-and supports both homogeneous and heterogeneous graph groupings with tasks of increasing complexity. We evaluate several state-of-the-art VLMs under a multi-dimensional scoring framework that assesses graph parsing, reasoning consistency, and instruction-following accuracy. Additionally, we fine-tune multiple open-source models and observe consistent improvements, confirming the effectiveness of our dataset. This work provides a principled step toward advancing multi-graph understanding and reveals new opportunities for cross-modal graph intelligence. |
26 pages, 23 figures |
| Report for NSF Workshop on AI for Electronic Design Automation | 2026-04-24 | ShowThis report distills the discussions and recommendations from the NSF Workshop on AI for Electronic Design Automation (EDA), held on December 10, 2024 in Vancouver alongside NeurIPS 2024. Bringing together experts across machine learning and EDA, the workshop examined how AI-spanning large language models (LLMs), graph neural networks (GNNs), reinforcement learning (RL), neurosymbolic methods, etc.-can facilitate EDA and shorten design turnaround. The workshop includes four themes: (1) AI for physical synthesis and design for manufacturing (DFM), discussing challenges in physical manufacturing process and potential AI applications; (2) AI for high-level and logic-level synthesis (HLS/LLS), covering pragma insertion, program transformation, RTL code generation, etc.; (3) AI toolbox for optimization and design, discussing frontier AI developments that could potentially be applied to EDA tasks; and (4) AI for test and verification, including LLM-assisted verification tools, ML-augmented SAT solving, security/reliability challenges, etc. The report recommends NSF to foster AI/EDA collaboration, invest in foundational AI for EDA, develop robust data infrastructures, promote scalable compute infrastructure, and invest in workforce development to democratize hardware design and enable next-generation hardware systems. The workshop information can be found on the website https://ai4eda-workshop.github.io/. |
Accep...Accepted by IEEE Circuits and Systems Magazine (2026). This is the accepted version. The published version is available at https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11466406 |
| Towards Understanding the Expressive Power of GNNs with Global Readout | 2026-04-23 | ShowWe study the expressive power of message-passing aggregate-combine-readout graph neural networks (ACR-GNNs). Particularly, we focus on the first-order (FO) properties expressible by this formalism. While a tight logical characterisation remains a difficult open question, we make two contributions towards answering it. First, we show that sum aggregation and readout suffice for GNNs to capture FO properties that cannot be expressed in the logic C2 on both directed and undirected graphs. This strengthens known results by Hauke and Wał{\k e}ga (2026) where aggregation and readout functions are specially crafted for the task. Second, we identify two natural ways of restoring characterisability (with regard to C2) for ACR-GNNs. One option is to limit local aggregation (without imposing restrictions on global readout), whilst the second is to run ACR-GNNs over graphs of bounded degree (but unbounded size). In both cases, the FO properties captured by GNNs are exactly those definable by a formula in graded modal logic with global counting modalities. Our results thus establish an innate lower- and upper-bound in terms of how far (fragments of) C2 can be taken to characterise GNNs, and imply that is indeed the unbounded interaction of aggregation and readout that pushes the logical expressive power of GNNs above C2. |
17 pages |
| StormNet: Improving storm surge predictions with a GNN-based spatio-temporal offset forecasting model | 2026-04-23 | ShowStorm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events. |
51 pa...51 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables |
| Focus on What Matters: Fisher-Guided Adaptive Multimodal Fusion for Vulnerability Detection | 2026-04-23 | ShowSoftware vulnerability detection can be formulated as a binary classification problem that determines whether a given code snippet contains security defects. Existing multimodal methods typically fuse Natural Code Sequence (NCS) representations extracted by pretrained models with Code Property Graph (CPG) representations extracted by graph neural networks, under the implicit assumption that introducing an additional modality necessarily yields information gain. Through empirical analysis, we demonstrate the limitations of this assumption: pretrained models already encode substantial structural information implicitly, leading to strong overlap between the two modalities; moreover, graph encoders are generally less effective than pretrained language models in feature extraction. As a result, naive fusion not only struggles to obtain complementary signals but can also dilute effective discriminative cues due to noise propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a task-conditioned complementary fusion strategy that uses Fisher information to quantify task relevance, transforming cross-modal interaction from full-spectrum matching into selective fusion within a task-sensitive subspace. Our theoretical analysis shows that, under an isotropic perturbation assumption, this strategy significantly tightens the upper bound on the output error. Based on this insight, we design the TaCCS-DFA framework, which combines online low-rank Fisher subspace estimation with an adaptive gating mechanism to enable efficient task-oriented fusion. Experiments on the BigVul, Devign, and ReVeal benchmarks demonstrate that TaCCS-DFA delivers up to a 6.3-point gain in F1 score with only a 3.4% increase in inference latency, while maintaining low calibration error. |
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| Forecasting Individual NetFlows using a Predictive Masked Graph Autoencoder | 2026-04-23 | ShowIn this paper, we propose a proof-of-concept Graph Neural Network model that can successfully predict network flow-level traffic (NetFlow) by accurately modelling the graph structure and the connection features. We use sliding-windows to split the network traffic in equal-sized heterogeneous bidirectional graphs containing IP, Port, and Connection nodes. We then use the GNN to model the evolution of the graph structure and the connection features. Our approach shows superior results when identifying the Port and IP to which connections attach, while feature reconstruction remains competitive with strong forecasting baselines. Overall, our work showcases the use of GNNs for per-flow NetFlow prediction. |
3 figures, 6 pages |
| Drug Synergy Prediction via Residual Graph Isomorphism Networks and Attention Mechanisms | 2026-04-23 | ShowIn the treatment of complex diseases, treatment regimens using a single drug often yield limited efficacy and can lead to drug resistance. In contrast, combination drug therapies can significantly improve therapeutic outcomes through synergistic effects. However, experimentally validating all possible drug combinations is prohibitively expensive, underscoring the critical need for efficient computational prediction methods. Although existing approaches based on deep learning and graph neural networks (GNNs) have made considerable progress, challenges remain in reducing structural bias, improving generalization capability, and enhancing model interpretability. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a collaborative prediction graph neural network that integrates molecular structural features and cell-line genomic profiles with drug-drug interactions to enhance the prediction of synergistic effects. We introduce a novel model named the Residual Graph Isomorphism Network integrated with an Attention mechanism (ResGIN-Att). The model first extracts multi scale topological features of drug molecules using a residual graph isomorphism network, where residual connections help mitigate over-smoothing in deep layers. Subsequently, an adaptive Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module fuses structural information from local to global scales. Finally, a cross-attention module is designed to explicitly model drug-drug interactions and identify key chemical substructures. Extensive experiments on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that ResGIN-Att achieves competitive performance, comparing favorably against key baseline methods while exhibiting promising generalization capability and robustness. |
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| Adaptive Soft Error Protection for Neural Network Processing | 2026-04-23 | ShowPrevious research on selective protection for neural network components typically exploits only static vulnerability differences. Although these methods improve upon classical modular redundancy, they still incur substantial overhead for neural network workloads that are both memory-intensive and compute-intensive. In this work, we observe that neural network vulnerability is also input-dependent and varies dynamically at runtime. With this observation, we propose an adaptive, vulnerability-aware fault tolerance framework. At its core, a lightweight graph neural network (GNN) model dynamically predicts soft error vulnerabilities across inputs and neural network components, enabling real-time adaptation of fault tolerance policies. This design offers a complementary and more efficient protection scheme compared to traditional approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the GNN predictor achieves over 95% accuracy in identifying critical inputs and components. Moreover, our adaptive scheme reduces computational overhead by an average of 42.12% while preserving model accuracy, significantly outperforming static selective protection methods. |
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| Information Bottleneck-Guided Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Interpretable Neurodevelopmental Disorder Diagnosis | 2026-04-23 | ShowDeveloping interpretable models for neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) diagnosis presents significant challenges in effectively encoding, decoding, and integrating multimodal neuroimaging data. While many existing machine learning approaches have shown promise in brain network analysis, they typically suffer from limited interpretability, particularly in extracting meaningful biomarkers from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and establishing clear relationships between imaging features and demographic characteristics. Besides, current graph neural network methodologies face limitations in capturing both local and global functional connectivity patterns while simultaneously achieving theoretically principled multimodal data fusion. To address these challenges, we propose the Interpretable Information Bottleneck Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network (I2B-HGNN), a unified framework that applies information bottleneck principles to guide both brain connectivity modeling and cross-modal feature integration. This framework comprises two complementary components. The first is the Information Bottleneck Graph Transformer (IBGraphFormer), which combines transformer-based global attention mechanisms with graph neural networks through information bottleneck-guided pooling to identify sufficient biomarkers. The second is the Information Bottleneck Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network (IB-HGAN), which employs meta-path-based heterogeneous graph learning with structural consistency constraints to achieve interpretable fusion of neuroimaging and demographic data. The experimental results demonstrate that I2B-HGNN achieves superior performance in diagnosing NDDs, exhibiting both high classification accuracy and the ability to provide interpretable biomarker identification while effectively analyzing non-imaging data. |
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| GraphLeap: Decoupling Graph Construction and Convolution for Vision GNN Acceleration on FPGA | 2026-04-23 | ShowVision Graph Neural Networks (ViGs) represent an image as a graph of patch tokens, enabling adaptive, feature-driven neighborhoods. Unlike CNNs with fixed grid biases or Vision Transformers with global token interactions, ViGs rely on dynamic graph convolution: at each layer, a feature-dependent graph is built via k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) search on current patch features, followed by message passing. This per-layer graph construction is the main bottleneck, consuming 50--95% of graph convolution time on CPUs and GPUs, scaling as |
FCCM 2026 |
| Graph Neural Network-Informed Predictive Flows for Faster Ford-Fulkerson and PAC-Learnability | 2026-04-23 | ShowWe propose a learning-augmented framework for accelerating max-flow computation and image segmentation by integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm. Rather than predicting initial flows, our method learns edge importance probabilities to guide augmenting path selection. We introduce a Message Passing GNN (MPGNN) that jointly learns node and edge embeddings through coupled updates, capturing both global structure and local flow dynamics such as residual capacity and bottlenecks. Given an input image, we propose a method to construct a grid-based flow network with source and sink nodes, extract features, and perform a single GNN inference to assign edge probabilities reflecting their likelihood of belonging to high-capacity cuts. These probabilities are stored in a priority queue and used to guide a modified Ford-Fulkerson procedure, prioritizing augmenting paths via an Edmonds-Karp-style search with bottleneck-aware tie-breaking. This avoids repeated inference over residual graphs while leveraging learned structure throughout optimization. We further introduce a bidirectional path construction strategy centered on high-probability edges and provide a theoretical framework relating prediction quality to efficiency via a weighted permutation distance metric. Our method preserves max-flow/min-cut optimality while reducing the number of augmentations in practice. We also outline a hybrid extension combining flow warm-starting with edge-priority prediction, establishing a foundation for learning-guided combinatorial optimization in image segmentation. |
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| Spectral Embeddings Leak Graph Topology: Theory, Benchmark, and Adaptive Reconstruction | 2026-04-22 | ShowGraph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel on relational data, but standard benchmarks unrealistically assume the graph is centrally available. In practice, settings such as Federated Graph Learning, distributed systems, and privacy-sensitive applications involve graph data that are localized, fragmented, noisy, and privacy-leaking. We present a unified framework for this setting. We introduce LoGraB (Local Graph Benchmark), which decomposes standard datasets into fragmented benchmarks using three strategies and four controls: neighborhood radius |
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| TRAVELFRAUDBENCH: A Configurable Evaluation Framework for GNN Fraud Ring Detection in Travel Networks | 2026-04-22 | ShowWe introduce TravelFraudBench (TFG), a configurable benchmark for evaluating graph neural networks (GNNs) on fraud ring detection in travel platform graphs. Existing benchmarks--YelpChi, Amazon-Fraud, Elliptic, PaySim--cover single node types or domain-generic patterns with no mechanism to evaluate across structurally distinct fraud ring topologies. TFG simulates three travel-specific ring types--ticketing fraud (star topology with shared device/IP clusters), ghost hotel schemes (reviewer x hotel bipartite cliques), and account takeover rings (loyalty transfer chains)--in a heterogeneous graph with 9 node types and 12 edge types. Ring size, count, fraud rate, scale (500 to 200,000 nodes), and composition are fully configurable. We evaluate six methods--MLP, GraphSAGE, RGCN-proj, HAN, RGCN, and PC-GNN--under a ring-based split where each ring appears entirely in one partition, eliminating transductive label leakage. GraphSAGE achieves AUC=0.992 and RGCN-proj AUC=0.987, outperforming the MLP baseline (AUC=0.938) by 5.5 and 5.0 pp, confirming graph structure adds substantial discriminative power. HAN (AUC=0.935) is a negative result, matching the MLP baseline. On the ring recovery task (>=80% of ring members flagged simultaneously), GraphSAGE achieves 100% recovery across all ring types; MLP recovers only 17-88%. The edge-type ablation shows device and IP co-occurrence are the primary signals: removing uses_device drops AUC by 5.2 pp. TFG is released as an open-source Python package (MIT license) with PyG, DGL, and NetworkX exporters and pre-generated datasets at https://huggingface.co/datasets/bsajja7/travel-fraud-graphs, with Croissant metadata including Responsible AI fields. |
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| Gauge-Equivariant Graph Neural Networks for Lattice Gauge Theories | 2026-04-22 | ShowLocal gauge symmetry underlies fundamental interactions and strongly correlated quantum matter, yet existing machine-learning approaches lack a general, principled framework for learning under site-dependent symmetries, particularly for intrinsically nonlocal observables. Here we introduce a gauge-equivariant graph neural network that embeds non-Abelian symmetry directly into message passing via matrix-valued, gauge-covariant features and symmetry-compatible updates, extending equivariant learning from global to fully local symmetries. In this formulation, message passing implements gauge-covariant transport across the lattice, allowing nonlocal correlations and loop-like structures to emerge naturally from local operations. We validate the approach across pure gauge, gauge-matter, and dynamical regimes, establishing gauge-equivariant message passing as a general paradigm for learning in systems governed by local symmetry. |
11 pages, 5 figures |
| F\textsuperscript{2}LP-AP: Fast & Flexible Label Propagation with Adaptive Propagation Kernel | 2026-04-22 | ShowSemi-supervised node classification is a foundational task in graph machine learning, yet state-of-the-art Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are hindered by significant computational overhead and reliance on strong homophily assumptions. Traditional GNNs require expensive iterative training and multi-layer message passing, while existing training-free methods, such as Label Propagation, lack adaptability to heterophilo-us graph structures. This paper presents \textbf{F$^2$LP-AP} (Fast and Flexible Label Propagation with Adaptive Propagation Kernel), a training-free, computationally efficient framework that adapts to local graph topology. Our method constructs robust class prototypes via the geometric median and dynamically adjusts propagation parameters based on the Local Clustering Coefficient (LCC), enabling effective modeling of both homophilous and heterophilous graphs without gradient-based training. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmark datasets demonstrate that \textbf{F$^2$LP-AP} achieves competitive or superior accuracy compared to trained GNNs, while significantly outperforming existing baselines in computational efficiency. |
16 pages, 5 figures |
| From Nodes to Narratives: Explaining Graph Neural Networks with LLMs and Graph Context | 2026-04-22 | ShowGraph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning over structured data, including text-attributed graphs (TAGs), which are common in domains such as citation networks, social platforms, and knowledge graphs. GNNs are not inherently interpretable and thus, many explanation methods have been proposed. However, existing explanation methods often struggle to generate interpretable, fine-grained rationales, especially when node attributes include rich natural language. In this work, we introduce GSPELL, a lightweight, post-hoc framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to generate faithful and interpretable explanations for GNN predictions. GSPELL projects GNN node embeddings into the LLM embedding space and constructs hybrid prompts that interleave soft prompts with textual inputs from the graph structure. This enables the LLM to reason about GNN internal representations and to produce natural-language explanations, along with concise explanation subgraphs. Our experiments across real-world TAG datasets demonstrate that GSPELL achieves a favorable trade-off between fidelity and sparsity, while improving human-centric metrics such as insightfulness. GSPELL sets a new direction for LLM-based explainability in graph learning by aligning GNN internals with human reasoning. |
Accepted to ACL 2026 |
| Self-Aware Vector Embeddings for Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Neuroscience-Inspired Framework for Temporal, Confidence-Weighted, and Relational Knowledge | 2026-04-22 | ShowModern retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems treat vector embeddings as static, context-free artifacts: an embedding has no notion of when it was created, how trustworthy its source is, or which other embeddings depend on it. This flattening of knowledge has a measurable cost: recent work on VersionRAG reports that conventional RAG achieves only 58% accuracy on versioned technical queries, because retrieval returns semantically similar but temporally invalid content. We propose SmartVector, a framework that augments dense embeddings with three explicit properties -- temporal awareness, confidence decay, and relational awareness -- and a five-stage lifecycle modeled on hippocampal-neocortical memory consolidation. A retrieval pipeline replaces pure cosine similarity with a four-signal score that mixes semantic relevance, temporal validity, live confidence, and graph-relational importance. A background consolidation agent detects contradictions, builds dependency edges, and propagates updates along those edges as graph-neural-network-style messages. Confidence is governed by a closed-form function combining an Ebbinghaus-style exponential decay, user-feedback reconsolidation, and logarithmic access reinforcement. We formalize the model, relate it to temporal knowledge graph embedding, agentic memory architectures, and uncertainty-aware RAG, and present a reference implementation. On a reproducible synthetic versioned-policy benchmark of 258 vectors and 138 queries, SmartVector roughly doubles top-1 accuracy over plain cosine RAG (62.0% vs. 31.0% on a held-out split), drops stale-answer rate from 35.0% to 13.3%, cuts Expected Calibration Error by nearly 2x (0.244 vs. 0.470), reduces re-embedding cost per single-word edit by 77%, and is robust across contradiction-injection rates from 0% to 75%. |
17 pages, 4 tables |
| Mechanistic Interpretability Tool for AI Weather Models | 2026-04-22 | ShowArtificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are improving rapidly, and their forecasts are already competitive with long-established traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). To build confidence in this new methodology, it is critical that we understand how these predictions are generated. This is a huge challenge as these AI weather models remain largely black boxes. In other areas of Machine Learning (ML), mechanistic interpretability has emerged as a framework for understanding ML predictions by analysing the building blocks responsible for them. Here we present an open-source, highly adaptable tool which incorporates concepts from mechanistic interpretability. The tool organises internal latent representations from the model processor and allows for initial analyses, including cosine similarity and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling the user to identify directions in latent space potentially associated with meteorological features. Applying our tool to the graph neural network GraphCast, we present preliminary case studies for mid-latitude synoptic-scale waves and specific humidity. These demonstrate the tool's ability to identify linear combinations of latent channels that appear to correspond to interpretable features. |
14 pa...14 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to International Conference on Computational Science 2026 |
| Discrete Preference Learning for Personalized Multimodal Generation | 2026-04-22 | ShowThe emergence of generative models enables the creation of texts and images tailored to users' preferences. Existing personalized generative models have two critical limitations: lacking a dedicated paradigm for accurate preference modeling, and generating unimodal content despite real-world multimodal-driven user interactions. Therefore, we propose personalized multimodal generation, which captures modal-specific preferences via a dedicated preference model from multimodal interactions, and then feeds them into downstream generators for personalized multimodal content. However, this task presents two challenges: (1) Gap between continuous preferences from dedicated modeling and discrete token inputs intrinsic to generator architectures; (2) Potential inconsistency between generated images and texts. To tackle these, we present a two-stage framework called Discrete Preference learning for Personalized Multimodal Generation (DPPMG). In the first stage, to accurately learn discrete modal-specific preferences, we introduce a modal-specific graph neural network (a dedicated preference model) to learn users' modal-specific preferences, which preferences are then quantized into discrete preference tokens. In the second stage, the discrete modal-specific preference tokens are injected into downstream text and image generators. To further enhance cross-modal consistency while preserving personalization, we design a cross-modal consistent and personalized reward to fine-tune token-associated parameters. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in generating personalized and consistent multimodal content. |
be ac...be accepted to SIGIR 2026 |
| Robustness of Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks for Fault Location in Partially Observable Distribution Grids | 2026-04-22 | ShowFault location in distribution grids is critical for reliability and minimizing outage durations. Yet, it remains challenging due to partial observability, given sparse measurement infrastructure. Recent works show promising results by combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for spatio-temporal learning. Still, many modern GNN architectures remain untested for this grid application, while existing GNN solutions have not explored GNN topology definitions beyond simply adopting the full grid topology to construct the GNN graph. We address these gaps by (i) systematically comparing a newly proposed graph-forming strategy (measured-only) to the traditional full-topology approach, and (ii) introducing STGNN (Spatio-temporal GNN) models based on GraphSAGE and an improved Graph Attention (GATv2), for distribution grid fault location; (iii) benchmarking them against state-of-the-art STGNN and RNN baselines on the IEEE 123-bus feeder. In our experiments, all evaluated STGNN variants achieve high performance and consistently outperform a pure RNN baseline, with improvements up to 11 percentage points F1. Among STGNN models, the newly explored RGATv2 and RGSAGE achieve only marginally higher F1 scores. Still, STGNNs demonstrate superior stability, with tight confidence intervals (within +/- 1.4%) compared to the RNN baseline (up to +/- 7.5%) across different experiment runs. Finally, our proposed reduced GNN topology (measured-only) shows clear benefits in both (i) model training time (6-fold reduction) and (ii) model performance (up to 11 points F1). This suggests that measured-only graphs offer a more practical, efficient, and robust framework for partially observable distribution grids. |
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| Sheaf Neural Networks on SPD Manifolds: Second-Order Geometric Representation Learning | 2026-04-22 | ShowGraph neural networks face two fundamental challenges rooted in the linear structure of Euclidean vector spaces: (1) Current architectures represent geometry through vectors (directions, gradients), yet many tasks require matrix-valued representations that capture relationships between directions-such as how atomic orientations covary in a molecule. These second-order representations are naturally captured by points on the symmetric positive definite matrices (SPD) manifold; (2) Standard message passing applies shared transformations across edges. Sheaf neural networks address this via edge-specific transformations, but existing formulations remain confined to vector spaces and therefore cannot propagate matrix-valued features. We address both challenges by developing the first sheaf neural network operates natively on the SPD manifold. Our key insight is that the SPD manifold admits a Lie group structure, enabling well-posed analogs of sheaf operators without projecting to Euclidean space. Theoretically, we prove that SPD-valued sheaves are strictly more expressive than Euclidean sheaves: they admit consistent configurations (global sections) that vector-valued sheaves cannot represent, directly translating to richer learned representations. Empirically, our sheaf convolution transforms effectively rank-1 directional inputs into full-rank matrices encoding local geometric structure. Our dual-stream architecture achieves SOTA on 6/7 MoleculeNet benchmarks, with the sheaf framework providing consistent depth robustness. |
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| Multi-Perspective Evidence Synthesis and Reasoning for Unsupervised Multimodal Entity Linking | 2026-04-22 | ShowMultimodal Entity Linking (MEL) is a fundamental task in data management that maps ambiguous mentions with diverse modalities to the multimodal entities in a knowledge base. However, most existing MEL approaches primarily focus on optimizing instance-centric features and evidence, leaving broader forms of evidence and their intricate interdependencies insufficiently explored. Motivated by the observation that human expert decision-making process relies on multi-perspective judgment, in this work, we propose MSR-MEL, a Multi-perspective Evidence Synthesis and Reasoning framework with Large Language Models (LLMs) for unsupervised MEL. Specifically, we adopt a two-stage framework: (1) Offline Multi-Perspective Evidence Synthesis constructs a comprehensive set of evidence. This includes instance-centric evidence capturing the instance-centric multimodal information of mentions and entities, group-level evidence that aggregates neighborhood information, lexical evidence based on string overlap ratio, and statistical evidence based on simple summary statistics. A core contribution of our framework is the synthesis of group-level evidence, which effectively aggregates vital neighborhood information by graph. We first construct LLM-enhanced contextualized graphs. Subsequently, different modalities are jointly aligned through an asymmetric teacher-student graph neural network. (2) Online Multi-Perspective Evidence Reasoning leverages the power of LLM as a reasoning module to analyze the correlation and semantics of the multi-perspective evidence to induce an effective ranking strategy for accurate entity linking without supervision. Extensive experiments on widely used MEL benchmarks demonstrate that MSR-MEL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised methods. The source code of this paper was available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MSR-MEL-C21E/. |
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| i-WiViG: Interpretable Window Vision GNN | 2026-04-22 | ShowVision graph neural networks have emerged as a popular approach for modeling the global and spatial context for image recognition. However, a significant drawback of these methods is that they do not offer an inherent interpretation of the relevant spatial interactions for their prediction. We address this problem by introducing i-WiViG, an approach that enables interpretable model reasoning based on a sparse subgraph in the image. i-WiViG is based on two key postulates: 1) constraining the graph nodes' receptive field to disjoint local windows in the image, and 2) an inherently interpretable graph bottleneck with learnable sparse attention that identifies the relevant interactions among the local image windows. We evaluate our approach on both scene classification and regression tasks using natural and remote sensing imagery. Our results, supported by quantitative and qualitative evidence, demonstrate that the method delivers semantic, intuitive, and faithful explanations through the identified subgraphs. Furthermore, extensive experiments confirm that it achieves competitive performance to its black-box counterparts, even on datasets exhibiting strong texture bias. The implementation is available on https://github.com/zhu-xlab/i-WiViG. |
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| FASE : A Fairness-Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph Framework for Predictive Policing | 2026-04-22 | ShowPredictive policing systems that allocate patrol resources based solely on predicted crime risk can unintentionally amplify racial disparities through feedback driven data bias. We present FASE, a Fairness Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph framework, which integrates spatiotemporal crime prediction with fairness constrained patrol allocation and a closed loop deployment feedback simulator. We model Baltimore as a graph of 25 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas and use 139,982 Part 1 crime incidents from 2017 to 2019 at hourly resolution, producing a sparse feature tensor. The prediction module combines a spatiotemporal graph neural network with a multivariate Hawkes process to capture spatial dependencies and self exciting temporal dynamics. Outputs are modeled using a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial distribution, suitable for overdispersed and zero heavy crime counts. The model achieves a validation loss of 0.4800 and a test loss of 0.4857. Patrol allocation is formulated as a fairness constrained linear optimization problem that maximizes risk weighted coverage while enforcing a Demographic Impact Ratio constraint with deviation bounded by 0.05. Across six simulated deployment cycles, fairness remains within 0.9928 to 1.0262, and coverage ranges from 0.876 to 0.936. However, a persistent detection rate gap of approximately 3.5 percentage points remains between minority and non minority areas. This result shows that allocation level fairness constraints alone do not eliminate feedback induced bias in retraining data, highlighting the need for fairness interventions across the full pipeline. |
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| Concept Graph Convolutions: Message Passing in the Concept Space | 2026-04-22 | ShowThe trust in the predictions of Graph Neural Networks is limited by their opaque reasoning process. Prior methods have tried to explain graph networks via concept-based explanations extracted from the latent representations obtained after message passing. However, these explanations fall short of explaining the message passing process itself. To this aim, we propose the Concept Graph Convolution, the first graph convolution designed to operate on node-level concepts for improved interpretability. The proposed convolutional layer performs message passing on a combination of raw and concept representations using structural and attention-based edge weights. We also propose a pure variant of the convolution, only operating in the concept space. Our results show that the Concept Graph Convolution allows to obtain competitive task accuracy, while enabling an increased insight into the evolution of concepts across convolutional steps. |
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| When Graph Structure Becomes a Liability: A Critical Re-Evaluation of Graph Neural Networks for Bitcoin Fraud Detection under Temporal Distribution Shift | 2026-04-21 | ShowThe consensus that GCN, GraphSAGE, GAT, and EvolveGCN outperform feature-only baselines on the Elliptic Bitcoin Dataset is widely cited but has not been rigorously stress-tested under a leakage-free evaluation protocol. We perform a seed-matched inductive-versus-transductive comparison and find that this consensus does not hold. Under a strictly inductive protocol, Random Forest on raw features achieves F1 = 0.821 and outperforms all evaluated GNNs, while GraphSAGE reaches F1 = 0.689 +/- 0.017. A paired controlled experiment reveals a 39.5-point F1 gap attributable to training-time exposure to test-period adjacency. Additionally, edge-shuffle ablations show that randomly wired graphs outperform the real transaction graph, indicating that the dataset's topology can be misleading under temporal distribution shift. Hybrid models combining GNN embeddings with raw features provide only marginal gains and remain substantially below feature-only baselines. We release code, checkpoints, and a strict-inductive protocol to enable reproducible, leakage-free evaluation. |
Code ...Code to be released soon |
| Towards Generalization of Graph Neural Networks for AC Optimal Power Flow | 2026-04-21 | ShowAC Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) is computationally intensive for large-scale grids, often requiring prohibitive solution times with conventional solvers. Machine learning offers significant speedups, but existing models struggle with scalability and topology flexibility. To address these challenges, we propose a Hybrid Heterogeneous Message Passing Neural Network (HH-MPNN) that integrates a heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) with a scalable transformer and physics-informed positional encodings. Our architecture explicitly models distinct power system components to capture local features while using global attention for long-range dependencies. Evaluated on diverse benchmarks, including PGLearn and GridFM-DataKit datasets, HH-MPNN achieves less than 1% optimality gap on default topologies across grid sizes from 14 to 2,000 buses. For N-1 contingencies, our approach demonstrates zero-shot N-1 generalization with less than 3% optimality gap on several test cases despite training only on default topologies. We further develop an approach that ensures robust N-1 generalization to high-impact contingencies through targeted augmentation of the training data, showing that exhaustive simulation is unnecessary for topologically flexible models. Finally, size generalization experiments demonstrate that pre-training on small grids significantly improves performance on large-scale systems. Achieving computational speedups of up to 5,000 times compared to interior point solvers, these results advance practical, generalizable machine learning for real-time power system operations. |
Pre-p...Pre-print has been submitted for review |
| The Logical Expressiveness of Topological Neural Networks | 2026-04-21 | ShowGraph neural networks (GNNs) are the standard for learning on graphs, yet they have limited expressive power, often expressed in terms of the Weisfeiler-Leman (WL) hierarchy or within the framework of first-order logic. In this context, topological neural networks (TNNs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative for graph representation learning. By incorporating higher-order relational structures into message-passing schemes, TNNs offer higher representational power than traditional GNNs. However, a fundamental question remains open: what is the logical expressiveness of TNNs? Answering this allows us to characterize precisely which binary classifiers TNNs can represent. In this paper, we address this question by analyzing isomorphism tests derived from the underlying mechanisms of general TNNs. We introduce and investigate the power of higher-order variants of WL-based tests for combinatorial complexes, called |
39 pa...39 pages, Published at the 14th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2026) |
| Inductive Subgraphs as Shortcuts: Causal Disentanglement for Heterophilic Graph Learning | 2026-04-21 | ShowHeterophily is a prevalent property of real-world graphs and is well known to impair the performance of homophilic Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Prior work has attempted to adapt GNNs to heterophilic graphs through non-local neighbor extension or architecture refinement. However, the fundamental reasons behind misclassifications remain poorly understood. In this work, we take a novel perspective by examining recurring inductive subgraphs, empirically and theoretically showing that they act as spurious shortcuts that mislead GNNs and reinforce non-causal correlations in heterophilic graphs. To address this, we adopt a causal inference perspective to analyze and correct the biased learning behavior induced by shortcut inductive subgraphs. We propose a debiased causal graph that explicitly blocks confounding and spillover paths responsible for these shortcuts. Guided by this causal graph, we introduce Causal Disentangled GNN (CD-GNN), a principled framework that disentangles spurious inductive subgraphs from true causal subgraphs by explicitly blocking non-causal paths. By focusing on genuine causal signals, CD-GNN substantially improves the robustness and accuracy of node classification in heterophilic graphs. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets not only validate our theoretical findings but also demonstrate that our proposed CD-GNN outperforms state-of-the-art heterophily-aware baselines. |
SIGIR 2026 |
| Pixels or Positions? Benchmarking Modalities in Group Activity Recognition | 2026-04-21 | ShowGroup Activity Recognition (GAR) is well studied on the video modality for surveillance and indoor team sports (e.g., volleyball, basketball). Yet, other modalities such as agent positions and trajectories over time, i.e. tracking, remain comparatively under-explored despite being compact, agent-centric signals that explicitly encode spatial interactions. Understanding whether pixel (video) or position (tracking) modalities leads to better group activity recognition is therefore important to drive further research on the topic. However, no standardized benchmark currently exists that aligns broadcast video and tracking data for the same group activities, leading to a lack of apples-to-apples comparison between these modalities for GAR. In this work, we introduce SoccerNet-GAR, a multimodal dataset built from the |
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| Graph Data Augmentation with Contrastive Learning on Covariate Distribution Shift | 2026-04-21 | ShowCovariate distribution shift occurs when certain structural features present in the test set are absent from the training set. It is a common type of out-of-distribution (OOD) problem, frequently encountered in real-world graph data with complex structures. Existing research has revealed that most out-of-the-box graph neural networks (GNNs) fail to account for covariate shifts. Furthermore, we observe that existing methods aimed at addressing covariate shifts often fail to fully leverage the rich information contained within the latent space. Motivated by the potential of the latent space, we introduce a new method called MPAIACL for More Powerful Adversarial Invariant Augmentation using Contrastive Learning. MPAIACL leverages contrastive learning to unlock the full potential of vector representations by harnessing their intrinsic information. Through extensive experiments, MPAIACL demonstrates its robust generalization and effectiveness, as it performs well compared with other baselines across various public OOD datasets. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/flzeng1/MPAIACL. |
8 tables, 8 figures |
| TRN-R1-Zero: Text-rich Network Reasoning via LLMs with Reinforcement Learning Only | 2026-04-21 | ShowZero-shot reasoning on text-rich networks (TRNs) remains a challenging frontier, as models must integrate textual semantics with relational structure without task-specific supervision. While graph neural networks rely on fixed label spaces and supervised objectives, recent large language model (LLM)-based approaches often overlook graph context or depend on distillation from larger models, limiting generalisation. We propose TRN-R1-Zero, a post-training framework for TRN reasoning trained solely via reinforcement learning. TRN-R1-Zero directly optimises base LLMs using a Neighbour-aware Group Relative Policy Optimisation objective that dynamically adjusts rewards based on a novel margin gain metric for the informativeness of neighbouring signals, effectively guiding the model toward relational reasoning. Unlike prior methods, TRN-R1-Zero requires no supervised fine-tuning or chain-of-thought data generated from large reasoning models. Extensive experiments across citation, hyperlink, social and co-purchase TRN benchmarks demonstrate the superiority and robustness of TRN-R1-Zero. Moreover, relying strictly on node-level training, TRN-R1-Zero achieves zero-shot inference on edge- and graph-level tasks, extending beyond cross-domain transfer. The codebase is publicly available at https://github.com/superallen13/TRN-R1-Zero. |
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| SAGE: Signal-Amplified Guided Embeddings for LLM-based Vulnerability Detection | 2026-04-21 | ShowSoftware vulnerabilities are a primary threat to modern infrastructure. While static analysis and Graph Neural Networks have long served as the foundation for vulnerability detection, the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has introduced a transformative paradigm driven by superior semantic reasoning and cross-environment generalization. However, in the context of LLM-based vulnerability detection, we identify a fundamental bottleneck in these models termed \textbf{Signal Submersion}: a state where features related to vulnerability are activated internally but numerically overwhelmed by dominant functional semantics. To address this, we propose \textbf{SAGE} (\textbf{S}ignal-\textbf{A}mplified \textbf{G}uided \textbf{E}mbeddings), a framework that shifts from passive signal submersion to active signal recovery. SAGE integrates task-conditional Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to isolate and amplify these faint vulnerability signals. Extensive evaluations on BigVul, PrimeVul, and PreciseBugs demonstrate that SAGE achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, SAGE mitigates Signal Submersion by increasing the internal Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) by 12.7$\times$ via sparse manifold projection. This mechanistic intervention enables a 7B model to achieve up to 318% Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) gains on unseen distributions and a 319% gain on classic datasets. By maintaining robust performance across 13 programming languages and outperforming 34B baselines, SAGE establishes a more efficient and scalable path to software security than simple parameter scaling. |
24 pa...24 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables. Accepted by ISSTA 2026 |
| Learning Posterior Predictive Distributions for Node Classification from Synthetic Graph Priors | 2026-04-21 | ShowOne of the most challenging problems in graph machine learning is generalizing across graphs with diverse properties. Graph neural networks (GNNs) face a fundamental limitation: they require separate training for each new graph, preventing universal generalization across diverse graph datasets. A critical challenge facing GNNs lies in their reliance on labeled training data for each individual graph, a requirement that hinders the capacity for universal node classification due to the heterogeneity inherent in graphs -- differences in homophily levels, community structures, and feature distributions across datasets. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs) that achieve in-context learning through massive-scale pre-training on diverse datasets, we introduce NodePFN. This universal node classification method generalizes to arbitrary graphs without graph-specific training. NodePFN learns posterior predictive distributions (PPDs) by training only on thousands of synthetic graphs generated from carefully designed priors. Our synthetic graph generation covers real-world graphs through the use of random networks with controllable homophily levels and structural causal models for complex feature-label relationships. We develop a dual-branch architecture combining context-query attention mechanisms with local message passing to enable graph-aware in-context learning. Extensive evaluation on 23 benchmarks demonstrates that a single pre-trained NodePFN achieves 71.27 average accuracy. These results validate that universal graph learning patterns can be effectively learned from synthetic priors, establishing a new paradigm for generalization in node classification. |
Accep...Accepted to ICLR 2026. OpenReview: https://openreview.net/forum?id=FmxRzlu0rT |
| AI-Enabled Image-Based Hybrid Vision/Force Control of Tendon-Driven Aerial Continuum Manipulators | 2026-04-21 | ShowThis paper presents an AI-enabled cascaded hybrid vision/force control framework for tendon-driven aerial continuum manipulators based on constant-strain modeling in |
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| Spatiotemporal Link Formation Prediction in Social Learning Networks Using Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-20 | ShowSocial learning networks (SLNs) are graphical representations that capture student interactions within educational settings (e.g., a classroom), with nodes representing students and edges denoting interactions. Accurately predicting future interactions in these networks (i.e., link prediction) is crucial for enabling effective collaborative learning, supporting timely instructional interventions, and informing the design of effective group-based learning activities. However, traditional link prediction approaches are typically tuned to general online social networks (OSNs), often overlooking the complex, non-Euclidean, and dynamically evolving structure of SLNs, thus limiting their effectiveness in educational settings. In this work, we propose a graph neural network (GNN) framework that jointly considers the temporal evolution within classrooms and spatial aggregation across classrooms to perform link prediction in SLNs. Specifically, we analyze link prediction performance of GNNs over the SLNs of four distinct classrooms across their (i) temporal evolutions (varying time instances), (ii) spatial aggregations (joint SLN analysis), and (iii) varying spatial aggregations at varying temporal evolutions throughout the course. Our results indicate statistically significant performance improvements in the prediction of future links as the courses progress temporally. Aggregating SLNs from multiple classrooms generally enhances model performance as well, especially in sparser datasets. Moreover, we find that jointly leveraging both the temporal evolution and spatial aggregation of SLNs significantly outperforms conventional baseline approaches that analyze classrooms in isolation. Our findings demonstrate the efficacy of educationally meaningful link predictions, with direct implications for early-course decision-making and scalable learning analytics in and across classroom settings. |
Publi...Published in Education Data Mining (EDM) 2026 |
| Subgraph Concept Networks: Concept Levels in Graph Classification | 2026-04-20 | ShowThe reasoning process of Graph Neural Networks is complex and considered opaque, limiting trust in their predictions. To alleviate this issue, prior work has proposed concept-based explanations, extracted from clusters in the model's node embeddings. However, a limitation of concept-based explanations is that they only explain the node embedding space and are obscured by pooling in graph classification. To mitigate this issue and provide a deeper level of understanding, we propose the Subgraph Concept Network. The Subgraph Concept Network is the first graph neural network architecture that distils subgraph and graph-level concepts. It achieves this by performing soft clustering on node concept embeddings to derive subgraph and graph-level concepts. Our results show that the Subgraph Concept Network allows to obtain competitive model accuracy, while discovering meaningful concepts at different levels of the network. |
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| Multi-Level Temporal Graph Networks with Local-Global Fusion for Industrial Fault Diagnosis | 2026-04-20 | ShowFault detection and diagnosis are critical for the optimal and safe operation of industrial processes. The correlations among sensors often display non-Euclidean structures where graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used therein. However, for large-scale systems, local, global, and dynamic relations extensively exist among sensors, and traditional GNNs often overlook such complex and multi-level structures for various problems including the fault diagnosis. To address this issue, we propose a structure-aware multi-level temporal graph network with local-global feature fusion for industrial fault diagnosis. First, a correlation graph is dynamically constructed using Pearson correlation coefficients to capture relationships among process variables. Then, temporal features are extracted through long short-term memory (LSTM)-based encoder, whereas the spatial dependencies among sensors are learned by graph convolution layers. A multi-level pooling mechanism is used to gradually coarsen and learn meaningful graph structures, to capture higher-level patterns while keeping important fault related details. Finally, a fusion step is applied to combine both detailed local features and overall global patterns before the final prediction. Experimental evaluations on the Tennessee Eastman process (TEP) demonstrate that the proposed model achieves superior fault diagnosis performance, particularly for complex fault scenarios, outperforming various baseline methods. |
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| Opinion de-polarization in social networks with GNNs | 2026-04-20 | ShowNowadays, social media is the ground for political debate and exchange of opinions. There is a significant amount of research that suggests that social media are highly polarized. A phenomenon that is commonly observed is the echo chamber structure, where users are organized in polarized communities and form connections only with similar-minded individuals, limiting themselves to consume specific content. In this paper we explore a way to decrease the polarization of networks with two echo chambers. Particularly, we observe that if some users adopt a moderate opinion about a topic, the polarization of the network decreases. Based on this observation, we propose an efficient algorithm to identify a good set of K users, such that if they adopt a moderate stance around a topic, the polarization is minimized. Our algorithm employs a Graph Neural Network and thus it can handle large graphs more effectively than other approaches |
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| An LLM-Guided Query-Aware Inference System for GNN Models on Large Knowledge Graphs | 2026-04-20 | ShowEfficient inference for graph neural networks (GNNs) on large knowledge graphs (KGs) is essential for many real-world applications. GNN inference queries are computationally expensive and vary in complexity, as each involves a different number of target nodes linked to subgraphs of diverse densities and structures. Existing acceleration methods, such as pruning, quantization, and knowledge distillation, instantiate smaller models but do not adapt them to the structure or semantics of individual queries. They also store models as monolithic files that must be fully loaded, and miss the opportunity to retrieve only the neighboring nodes and corresponding model components that are semantically relevant to the target nodes. These limitations lead to excessive data loading and redundant computation on large KGs. This paper presents KG-WISE, a task-driven inference paradigm for large KGs. KG-WISE decomposes trained GNN models into fine-grained components that can be partially loaded based on the structure of the queried subgraph. It employs large language models (LLMs) to generate reusable query templates that extract semantically relevant subgraphs for each task, enabling query-aware and compact model instantiation. We evaluate KG-WISE on six large KGs with up to 42 million nodes and 166 million edges. KG-WISE achieves up to 28x faster inference and 98% lower memory usage than state-of-the-art systems while maintaining or improving accuracy across both commercial and open-weight LLMs. |
14 pages, 11 figures |
| NOOUGAT: Towards Unified Online and Offline Multi-Object Tracking | 2026-04-20 | ShowThe long-standing division between \textit{online} and \textit{offline} Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) has led to fragmented solutions that fail to address the flexible temporal requirements of real-world deployment scenarios. Current \textit{online} trackers rely on frame-by-frame hand-crafted association strategies and struggle with long-term occlusions, whereas \textit{offline} approaches can cover larger time gaps, but still rely on heuristic stitching for arbitrarily long sequences. In this paper, we introduce NOOUGAT, the first tracker designed to operate with arbitrary temporal horizons. NOOUGAT leverages a unified Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework that processes non-overlapping subclips, and fuses them through a novel Autoregressive Long-term Tracking (ALT) layer. The subclip size controls the trade-off between latency and temporal context, enabling a wide range of deployment scenarios, from frame-by-frame to batch processing. NOOUGAT achieves state-of-the-art performance across both tracking regimes, improving \textit{online} AssA by +2.3 on DanceTrack, +9.2 on SportsMOT, and +5.0 on MOT20, with even greater gains in \textit{offline} mode. |
Accep...Accepted to International Journal of Computer Vision (IJCV) |
| Torch Geometric Pool: the PyTorch library for pooling in Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-20 | ShowTorch Geometric Pool (tgp) is a pooling library built on top of PyTorch Geometric. Graph pooling methods differ in how they assign nodes to supernodes, how they handle batches, what they return after pooling, and whether they expose auxiliary losses. These differences make it hard to compare methods or reuse the same model code across them. tgp addresses this problem with a common software interface based on the Select-Reduce-Connect-Lift (SRCL) decomposition. The library provides 20 hierarchical poolers, standardized output objects, standalone readout modules, support for dense poolers in batched and unbatched mode, and workflows for caching and pre-coarsening. It is released under the MIT license on GitHub and PyPI, with comprehensive documentation, tutorials, and examples. |
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| No Data? No Problem: Synthesizing Security Graphs for Better Intrusion Detection | 2026-04-20 | ShowProvenance graph analysis plays a vital role in intrusion detection, particularly against Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), by exposing complex attack patterns. While recent systems combine graph neural networks (GNNs) with natural language processing (NLP) to capture structural and semantic features, their effectiveness is limited by class imbalance in real-world data. To address this, we introduce PROVSYN, a novel hybrid provenance graph synthesis framework, which comprises three components: (1) graph structure synthesis via heterogeneous graph generation models, (2) textual attribute synthesis via fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs), and (3) five-dimensional fidelity evaluation. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that PROVSYN consistently produces higher-fidelity graphs across the five evaluation dimensions compared to four strong baselines. To further demonstrate the practical utility of PROVSYN, we utilize the synthesized graphs to augment training datasets for downstream APT detection models. The results show that PROVSYN effectively mitigates data imbalance, improving normalized entropy by up to 35%, and enhances the generalizability of downstream detection models, achieving an accuracy improvement of up to 38%. |
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| Leveraging graph neural networks and mobility data for COVID-19 forecasting | 2026-04-20 | ShowThe COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives, spurring the development of diverse forecasting models. In this context, the true utility of complex spatio-temporal architectures versus simpler temporal baselines remains a subject of debate. Here, we show that structural sparsification of the input graph and temporal granularity are determining factors for the effectiveness of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). By leveraging human mobility networks in Brazil and China, we address a conflicting scenario in the literature: while standard LSTMs suffice for smooth, monotonic cumulative trends, GNNs significantly outperform baselines when forecasting volatile daily case counts. We show that backbone extraction substantially enhances predictive stability and reduces predictive error by removing negligible connections. Our results indicate that incorporating spatial dependencies is essential for modeling complex dynamics. Specifically, GNN architectures such as GCRN and GCLSTM outperform the LSTM baseline (Nemenyi test, p < 0.05) on datasets from Brazil and China for daily case predictions. Lastly, we frame the problem as a binary classification task to better analyze the dependency between context sizes and prediction horizons. |
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| Bounded Graph Clustering with Graph Neural Networks | 2026-04-20 | ShowIn community detection, many methods require the user to specify the number of clusters in advance since an exhaustive search over all possible values is computationally infeasible. While some classical algorithms can infer this number directly from the data, this is typically not the case for graph neural networks (GNNs): even when a desired number of clusters is specified, standard GNN-based methods often fail to return the exact number due to the way they are designed. In this work, we address this limitation by introducing a flexible and principled way to control the number of communities discovered by GNNs. Rather than assuming the true number of clusters is known, we propose a framework that allows the user to specify a plausible range and enforce these bounds during training. However, if the user wants an exact number of clusters, it may also be specified and reliably returned. |
20 pages, 11 figures |
| Multi-View Hierarchical Graph Neural Network for Sketch-Based 3D Shape Retrieval | 2026-04-20 | ShowSketch-based 3D shape retrieval (SBSR) aims to retrieve 3D shapes that are consistent with the category of the input hand-drawn sketch. The core challenge of this task lies in two aspects: existing methods typically employ simplified aggregation strategies for independently encoded 3D multi-view features, which ignore the geometric relationships between views and multi-level details, resulting in weak 3D representation. Simultaneously, traditional SBSR methods are constrained by visible category limitations, leading to poor performance in zero-shot scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose Multi-View Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (MV-HGNN), a novel framework for SBSR. Specifically, we construct a view-level graph and capture adjacent geometric dependencies and cross-view message passing via local graph convolution and global attention. A view selector is further introduced to perform hierarchical graph coarsening, enabling a progressively larger receptive field for graph convolution and mitigating the interference of redundant views, which leads to more discriminate discriminative hierarchical 3D representation. To enable category agnostic alignment and mitigate overfitting to seen classes, we leverage CLIP text embeddings as semantic prototypes and project both sketch and 3D features into a shared semantic space. We use a two-stage training strategy for category-level retrieval and a one-stage strategy for zero-shot retrieval under the same model architecture. Under both category-level and zero-shot settings, extensive experiments on two public benchmarks demonstrate that MV-HGNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods. |
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| Causally-Constrained Probabilistic Forecasting for Time-Series Anomaly Detection | 2026-04-20 | ShowAnomaly detection in multivariate time series is a central challenge in industrial monitoring, as failures frequently arise from complex temporal dynamics and cross-sensor interactions. While recent deep learning models, including graph neural networks and Transformers, have demonstrated strong empirical performance, most approaches remain primarily correlational and offer limited support for causal interpretation and root-cause localization. This study introduces a causally-constrained probabilistic forecasting framework which is a Causally Guided Transformer (CGT) model for multivariate time-series anomaly detection, integrating an explicit time-lagged causal graph prior with deep sequence modeling. For each target variable, a dedicated forecasting block employs a hard parent mask derived from causal discovery to restrict the main prediction pathway to graph-supported causes, while a latent Gaussian head captures predictive uncertainty. To leverage residual correlational information without compromising the causal representation, a shadow auxiliary path with stop-gradient isolation and a safety-gated blending mechanism is incorporated to suppress non-causal contributions when reliability is low. Anomalies are identified using negative log-likelihood scores with adaptive streaming thresholding, and root-cause variables are determined through per-dimension probabilistic attribution and counterfactual clamping. Experiments on the ASD and SMD benchmarks indicate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art detection performance, with F1-scores of 96.19% on ASD and 95.32% on SMD, and enhances variable-level attribution quality. These findings suggest that causal structural priors can improve both robustness and interpretability in detecting deep anomalies in multivariate sensor systems. |
This ...This work is currently under review for possible publication in the IEEE Access journal. All intellectual property rights are retained by IEEE |
| Persistence-Augmented Neural Networks | 2026-04-20 | ShowTopological Data Analysis (TDA) provides tools to describe the shape of data, but integrating topological features into deep learning pipelines remains challenging, especially when preserving local geometric structure rather than summarizing it globally. We propose a persistence-based data augmentation framework that encodes local gradient flow regions and their hierarchical evolution using the Morse-Smale complex. This representation, compatible with both convolutional and graph neural networks, retains spatially localized topological information across multiple scales. Importantly, the augmentation procedure itself is efficient, with computational complexity |
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| Program Structure-aware Language Models: Targeted Software Testing beyond Textual Semantics | 2026-04-20 | ShowRecent advances in large language models for test case generation have improved branch coverage via prompt-engineered mutations. However, they still lack principled mechanisms for steering models toward specific high-risk execution branches, limiting their effectiveness for discovering subtle bugs and security vulnerabilities. We propose GLMTest, the first program structure-aware LLM framework for targeted test case generation that seamlessly integrates code property graphs and code semantics using a graph neural network and a language model to condition test case generation on execution branches. This structured conditioning enables controllable and branch-targeted test case generation, thereby potentially enhancing bug and security risk discovery. Experiments on real-world projects show that GLMTest built on a Qwen2.5-Coder-7B-Instruct model improves branch accuracy from 27.4% to 50.2% on TestGenEval benchmark compared with state-of-the-art LLMs, i.e., Claude-Sonnet-4.5 and GPT-4o-mini. |
Accep...Accepted in The 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL Findings 2026) |
| Modeling Higher-Order Brain Interactions via a Multi-View Information Bottleneck Framework for fMRI-based Psychiatric Diagnosis | 2026-04-20 | ShowResting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has emerged as a cornerstone for psychiatric diagnosis, yet most approaches rely on pairwise brain cortical or sub-cortical connectivities that overlooks higher-order interactions (HOIs) central to complex brain dynamics. While hypergraph methods encode HOIs through predefined hyperedges, their construction typically relies on heuristic similarity metrics and does not explicitly characterize whether interactions are synergy- or redundancy-dominated. In this paper, we introduce |
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| Graph neural network for colliding particles with an application to sea ice floe modeling | 2026-04-20 | ShowThis paper introduces a novel approach to sea ice modeling using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), utilizing the natural graph structure of sea ice, where nodes represent individual ice pieces, and edges model the physical interactions, including collisions. This concept is developed within a one-dimensional framework as a foundational step. Traditional numerical methods, while effective, are computationally intensive and less scalable. By utilizing GNNs, the proposed model, termed the Collision-captured Network (CN), integrates data assimilation (DA) techniques to effectively learn and predict sea ice dynamics under various conditions. The approach was validated using synthetic data, both with and without observed data points, and it was found that the model accelerates the simulation of trajectories without compromising accuracy. This advancement offers a more efficient tool for forecasting in marginal ice zones (MIZ) and highlights the potential of combining machine learning with data assimilation for more effective and efficient modeling. |
Zhu, ...Zhu, R. Graph Neural Network for Colliding Particles with an Application to Sea Ice Floe Modeling. Arab J Sci Eng (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-026-11188-z |