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Intermediate SQL - Sales Analysis

Overview

Business Questions

  1. Customer Segmentation: Who are our most valuable customers?
  2. Cohort Analysis: How do different customer groups generate revenue?
  3. Retention Analysis: Which customers haven't purchased recently?

Analysis Research

1. Customer Segmentation Analysis

  • Categorized customers based on total lifetime value (LTV)
  • Assigned customers to High, Mid and Low-value segments
  • Calculated key metrics: total revenue

🖥️ Query: 1_customer_segmentation.sql

📈 Visualization:

Customer_segmentation

💾 Key Findings:

  • High-value segment (25% of customers) drives 66% of revenue ($135.4M)
  • Mid-value segment (50% of customers) contributes 30% of revenue ($66.6M)
  • Low-value segment (25% of customers) accounts for 2% of revenue ($4.3M)

💡 Business Insights

  • High-Value (66% revenue): Offer premium membership program to 12,372 VIP customers, as losing one customer significantly impacts revenue
  • Mid-Value (32% revenue): Create upgrade paths through personalized promotions, with potential $66.6M → $135.4M revenue opportunity
  • Low-Value (2% revenue): Design re-engagement campaigns and price-sensitive promotions to increase purchase frequency

2. Cohort Analysis

  • Tracked revenue and customer count per cohorts.
  • Cohorts were grouped by year of first purchase.
  • Analyzed customer retention at a cohort level.

🖥️ Query: 2_cohort_analysis.sql

📈 Visualization:

Cohort Analysis

💾 Key Findings:

  • Revenue per customer shows an alarming decreasing trend over time.
    • 2022-2024 cohorts are consistently generating less revenue per customer compared to 2019-2021 cohorts.
    • 2024 cohort has the lowest revenue per customer, indicating a significant drop in customer value.
    • NOTE: Although net revenue is increasing, this is likely due to a larger customer base, which is not reflective of customer value.

💡 Business Insights

  • Value extracted from customers is decreasing over time and needs further investigation.
  • In 2023 we saw a drop in number of customers acquired, which is concerning.
  • With both lowering LTV and decreasing customer acquisition, the company is facing a potential revenue decline.

1. Customer Retention

  • Identified customers at risk of churning
  • Analyzed last purchase patterns
  • Calculated customer-specific metrics

🖥️ Query: 3_retention_analysis.sql

📈 Visualization:

Customer Churn Customer Churn by cohort year

💾 Key Findings:

  • Cohort churn stabilizes at ~90% after 2-3 years, indicating a predictable long-term retention pattern.
  • Retention rates are consistently low (8-10%) across all cohorts, suggesting retention issues are systemic rather than specific to certain years.
  • Newer cohorts (2022-2023) show similar churn trajectories, signaling that without intervention, future cohorts will follow the same pattern.

💡 Business Insights

  • Strengthen early engagement strategies to target the first 1-2 years with onboarding incentives, loyalty rewards, and personalized offers to improve long-term retention.
  • Re-engage high-value churned customers by focusing on targeted win-back campaigns rather than broad retention efforts, as reactivating valuable users may yield higher ROI.
  • Predict & preempt churn risk and use customer-specific warning indicators to proactively intervene with at-risk users before they lapse.

Strategic Recommendations

  1. Customer Value Optimization (Customer Segmentation)

    • Launch VIP program for 12,372 high-value customers (66% revenue)
    • Create personalized upgrade paths for mid-value segment ($66.6M → $135.4M opportunity)
    • Design price-sensitive promotions for low-value segment to increase purchase frequency
  2. Cohort Performance Strategy (Customer Revenue by Cohort)

    • Target 2022-2024 cohorts with personalized re-engagement offers
    • Implement loyalty/subscription programs to stabilize revenue fluctuations
    • Apply successful strategies from high-spending 2016-2018 cohorts to newer customers
  3. Retention & Churn Prevention (Customer Retention)

    • Strengthen first 1-2 year engagement with onboarding incentives and loyalty rewards
    • Focus on targeted win-back campaigns for high-value churned customers
    • Implement proactive intervention system for at-risk customers before they lapse

Technical Details

  • Database: PostgreSQL
  • Analysis Tools: PostgreSQL
  • Visualization: ChatGPT

About

SQL-based sales analysis covering customer segmentation, cohort analysis, and retention — uncovering revenue drivers, churn patterns, and actionable business insights using PostgreSQL.

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