Remove capacity factor flexibility in steel sector

modules/29_CES_parameters/calibrate/bounds.gms

@@ -58,6 +58,29 @@ loop (pf_industry_relaxed_bounds_dyn37(in),
   + INF$( sm_CES_calibration_iteration gt sm_tmp );
 );
 
+
+*' For primary steel, the upper bound from 2025 is too restrictive given slight inconsistencies in input data
+*' This helps to accommodate these inconsistencies, though ECS remains difficult.
+$offOrder
+* vm_cesIO.up(t,regi,"ue_steel_primary")$(t.val gt 2005 AND NOT sameAs(regi, "ECS"))
+vm_cesIO.up(t,regi,"ue_steel_primary")$(t.val gt 2005)
+= max(
+  pm_cesdata(t-1,regi,"ue_steel_primary","quantity"),
+  (pm_cesdata(t,regi,"ue_steel_primary","quantity")
+  *(2.5 + max(0, (sm_CES_calibration_iteration - 1) / sm_tmp))
+    ))$( sm_CES_calibration_iteration le sm_tmp )
+  + INF$( sm_CES_calibration_iteration gt sm_tmp 
+  );
+$onOrder
+
+*' primary steel requires a more flexible upper bound for calibration, due to a historically low capacity factor in historical data (pre 2025)
+* vm_cesIO.up(t,regi,"ue_steel_primary")$(t.val gt 2005)
+* = ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,"ue_steel_primary","quantity")
+*   !! goes from 1.5 to 2.5 in +0.2 steps, then jumps to inf
+*   * (1.5 + max(0, (sm_CES_calibration_iteration - 1) / sm_tmp))
+*   )$( sm_CES_calibration_iteration le sm_tmp )
+* + INF$( sm_CES_calibration_iteration gt sm_tmp );
+
 loop(p29_building_relaxed_bounds_dyn(in),
   vm_cesIO.lo(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(t.val gt 2020 AND SAMEAS(regi, "MEA"))
   = pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") * 0.95 ;

modules/37_industry/subsectors/declarations.gms

@@ -155,6 +155,7 @@ $endif.no_calibration
   q37_demMatPrc(tall,all_regi,mat)                                                  "Material demand of processes"
   q37_prodMat(tall,all_regi,mat)                                                    "Production volume of processes equals material flow of output material"
   q37_mat2ue(tall,all_regi,mat,all_in)                                              "Connect materials production to ue ces tree nodes"
+  q37_limitCapMatHist(tall,all_regi,all_te)                                         "Material-flow conversion is limited by capacities (historical)"
   q37_limitCapMat(tall,all_regi,all_te)                                             "Material-flow conversion is limited by capacities"
   q37_emiPrc(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,all_te,opmoPrc)                                 "Local industry emissions pre-capture; Only used as baseline for CCS [GtC/a]"
   q37_emiCCPrc(tall,all_regi,emiInd37)                                              "Captured emissions from CCS"

modules/37_industry/subsectors/equations.gms

@@ -464,9 +464,9 @@ q37_mat2ue(t,regi,mat,in)$( ppfUePrc(in) ) ..
 ;
 
 ***------------------------------------------------------
-*' Definition of capacity constraints
+*' Definition of capacity constraints (historical and current)
 ***------------------------------------------------------
-q37_limitCapMat(t,regi,tePrc) ..
+q37_limitCapMatHist(t,regi,tePrc)$(t.val le 2020) ..
     sum(tePrc2opmoPrc(tePrc,opmoPrc),
       vm_outflowPrc(t,regi,tePrc,opmoPrc)
     )
@@ -477,6 +477,17 @@ q37_limitCapMat(t,regi,tePrc) ..
     )
 ;
 
+q37_limitCapMat(t,regi,tePrc)$(t.val gt 2020) ..
+    sum(tePrc2opmoPrc(tePrc,opmoPrc),
+      vm_outflowPrc(t,regi,tePrc,opmoPrc)
+    )
+    =e=
+    sum(teMat2rlf(tePrc,rlf),
+      vm_capFac(t,regi,tePrc)
+    * vm_cap(t,regi,tePrc,rlf)
+    )
+;
+
 ***------------------------------------------------------
 *' Emission from process based industry sector (pre CC)
 ***------------------------------------------------------