Skip to content

pjasmin1046/Monte-CarloSimulationFrameworkForEconomicRiskAnalysisOfChemicalProcesses

Repository files navigation

MainSim_V2

MainSim file should be used to conduct probabalistic cost analyses of ammonia production plants 
with SMR, Electrolysis, or Pyrolysis hydrogen input technologies. totalSamples, numsubranges parameters
can be changed to reflect different simulation lengths and the granularity of the graphical output. 
Carbon Tax Multiplier (CTM) can be maniuplated to simulate various intensities of carbon regulation.

MainSim file imports all other necessary files contained within the repo.

BSMS_Elec

BSMS_Elec file is a self contained sim file conducting a probabalistic cost analysis of a PEM 
Electrolyzer with variable electricity and utility cost data gridated by geographical area of the US 
for a regional comparison of cost profiles. The execution function takes in the desired number of simulation 
runs and granularity of graphical output. 

BSMS_Elec imports all necessary files contained within the repo.

ResamplingAlgorithm

This file is used to fit Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of common distributions to datasets (mainly price data)
to create continuously random variables from which to sample during a Monte Carlo simulation. Normal, Pareto, Wiebull,
Triangular, Gamma, and Uniform distributions are fitted and the user has the option of manual selection, or automatic
selection of the best fit PDF. 

DistFunctions_V2

This file holds functions to return sampled values from disributions modeling the uncertainty of cost parameters in 
the plant simulation models. This file is imported into each simulation file and pertinent sampler functions are 
called at each iteration of the discounted cash flow models to ensure accurate resampling of distributions occurs.

Distributions for uncertain cost parameters are taken from various literature sources. The framework used to evaluate
plant costs can be found at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0098135417300200?via%3Dihub.

About

Suite of scripts written to perform a Monte-Carlo simulation of a proposed ammonia plant design evaluating three different hydrogen inputs in the presence of uncertainty.

Resources

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Packages

 
 
 

Contributors

Languages