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FeatBit Release Decision Agent

The next paradigm for product experimentation — AI agents run the full loop from intent to decision autonomously, at the speed of shipping.


What This Project Does

AI has made code generation 10x faster — features get built and shipped in hours, not weeks. FeatBit feature flags give teams the stability layer: observable, risk-controlled rollouts that can be reversed in seconds. But there's a gap. Whether a feature is actually useful, how to optimize it, how to prove its value — the data experimentation layer hasn't kept up with the speed of shipping.

Most teams still ship without a hypothesis, measure five metrics and pick the one that looks good, and start the next cycle from gut feeling. The code got faster. The thinking didn't.

Data-driven decisions used to require a senior PM and a data scientist. This agent changes that. A junior engineer or PM — without a statistics background — can run a scientifically sound experiment, reach a statistically significant conclusion, and feed the result back into the next build cycle. Fast enough to keep up with the code generator.

The agent persists decision state to the web database via the project-sync skill so context is never lost between steps and the web UI can render each stage in real time.


The Loop

Every measurable product or AI change moves through the same cycle:

intent → hypothesis → implementation → exposure → measurement → interpretation → decision → learning → next intent

The loop is the framework. Tools are adapters inside it.


Architecture

featbit-release-decision is the hub skill — the control framework that decides which lens to apply and which satellite skill to call. All other skills are triggered by it.

                    ┌─────────────────────────────┐
                    │   release-decision.prompt.md │  ← entry point (VS Code / Copilot)
                    └──────────────┬──────────────┘
                                   │
                    ┌──────────────▼──────────────┐
                    │    featbit-release-decision  │  ← hub: control framework CF-01…CF-08
                    └──┬──────┬──────┬──────┬─────┘
                       │      │      │      │
          ┌────────────┘      │      │      └────────────────┐
          │                   │      │                        │
    ┌─────▼──────┐  ┌─────────▼──┐  ┌▼──────────────┐  ┌────▼──────────┐
    │  intent-   │  │ hypothesis │  │  reversible-  │  │ measurement-  │
    │  shaping   │  │  -design   │  │   exposure-   │  │   design      │
    │  (CF-01)   │  │  (CF-02)   │  │   control     │  │   (CF-05)     │
    └────────────┘  └────────────┘  │ (CF-03/CF-04) │  └───────┬───────┘
                                    └───────────────┘          │
                                                        ┌───────▼───────┐
                                                        │  experiment-  │
                                                        │   workspace   │
                                                        └───────┬───────┘
                                                                │
                                                    ┌───────────▼──────────┐
                                                    │  evidence-analysis   │
                                                    │    (CF-06/CF-07)     │
                                                    └───────────┬──────────┘
                                                                │
                                                    ┌───────────▼──────────┐
                                                    │  learning-capture    │
                                                    │      (CF-08)         │
                                                    └──────────────────────┘

Skills at a Glance

Skill CF Activates when…
intent-shaping CF-01 Goal is vague or user jumps straight to a tactic
hypothesis-design CF-02 Goal exists but no falsifiable causal claim
reversible-exposure-control CF-03 / CF-04 Ready to implement; need a feature flag and rollout strategy
measurement-design CF-05 Need to define the primary metric, guardrails, and event schema
experiment-workspace CF-05 (after) Instrumentation confirmed; ready to collect and compute
evidence-analysis CF-06 / CF-07 Data collected; time to decide CONTINUE / PAUSE / ROLLBACK / INCONCLUSIVE
learning-capture CF-08 Cycle ends; capture a reusable learning for the next iteration

Getting Started

Prerequisites

  • An AI coding agent: GitHub Copilot (agent mode), Claude Code, or Codex
  • Node.js 24+ and/or Python 3 runtime installed; .NET preferred but optional
  • FeatBit account (optional) / FeatBit Skills (optional) / featbit CLI (optional) — or substitute your own feature flag system and database / data warehouse

Installation

# Install this skill set into your agent skills folder
npx skills add featbit/featbit-release-decision-agent

Or clone manually into your local skills directory and point your agent at the instructions/ folder.

Activation

After installation, use the slash command directly in Claude Code, GitHub Copilot, or Codex:

/featbit-release-decision <dictate-your-experiment-feature-or-idea>

For example:

/featbit-release-decision We want more users to complete onboarding

The agent will identify your current stage and apply the right control lens.


How a Typical Session Works

1. You describe a goal or a problem.

"We want to increase adoption of our new AI assistant feature."

The agent applies CF-01 via intent-shaping — it separates your goal from any solution you may have mixed in, and asks what measurable change would tell you the goal was achieved.

2. You refine the goal into a hypothesis.

"We believe adding an in-context tooltip will increase feature activation rate for new users by 15%, because they don't know the feature exists."

The agent applies CF-02 via hypothesis-design — it validates all five components (change, metric, direction, audience, causal reason) and persists the hypothesis to the project database.

3. You implement the change behind a feature flag.

The agent applies CF-03 / CF-04 via reversible-exposure-control — it creates a flag, sets a conservative initial rollout (5–10%), defines protected audiences, and sets expansion and rollback criteria.

4. You define instrumentation.

The agent applies CF-05 via measurement-design — one primary metric, two or three guardrails, and the event schema needed to measure them. If data collection needs to be set up, it hands off to experiment-workspace.

5. Data accumulates. You want to decide.

The agent applies CF-06 / CF-07 via evidence-analysis — it checks that the evidence is simultaneous, sufficient, and clean before framing an outcome. The decision is one of: CONTINUE, PAUSE, ROLLBACK CANDIDATE, or INCONCLUSIVE. It persists the decision to the project database.

6. The cycle ends.

The agent applies CF-08 via learning-capture — it produces a structured learning (what changed, what happened, why it likely happened, what to test next) and resets the intent state for the next iteration.


Project Structure

skills/
  featbit-release-decision/        ← hub control framework (CF-01…CF-08)
    SKILL.md
    references/
      skill-routing-guide.md       ← maps each CF to its satellite skill
  intent-shaping/                  ← CF-01: extract measurable business goals
  hypothesis-design/               ← CF-02: write falsifiable hypotheses
  reversible-exposure-control/     ← CF-03/CF-04: feature flags and rollout
  measurement-design/              ← CF-05: metrics, guardrails, event schema
  experiment-workspace/            ← CF-05+: local experiment folder + analysis scripts
  evidence-analysis/               ← CF-06/CF-07: sufficiency check + decision framing
  learning-capture/                ← CF-08: structured learning for next cycle
agent/                             ← Web UI (Next.js) for the release decision agent
  src/
    app/                           ← pages, layouts, API routes
    components/                    ← React components + shadcn/ui primitives
    lib/                           ← utilities, API clients, types
    hooks/                         ← custom React hooks

Agent (Web UI)

The agent/ folder contains a Next.js 16 application that provides a visual interface for the release decision agent. Built with TypeScript, Tailwind CSS v4, and shadcn/ui.

What the UI enables:

  • Manage experiments — Create, track, and iterate on experiments through a dashboard.
  • Run agent-guided experimentation — Walk through the full loop (intent → hypothesis → exposure → measurement → decision → learning) via an interactive UI powered by the agent skills.
  • Configure data connections — Connect databases, data warehouses, and FeatBit instances to feed experiment metrics.
  • View analysis results — See Bayesian analysis, sample size checks, and decision outcomes in real time.
  • Track decisions and learnings — Record CONTINUE / PAUSE / ROLLBACK / INCONCLUSIVE decisions and structured learnings across cycles.
# Run the web UI locally
cd agent
npm install
npm run dev

During a session the agent writes to your project:

.featbit-release-decision/
  experiments/
    <slug>/
      definition.md  ← experiment spec
      input.json     ← collected data
      analysis.md    ← Bayesian analysis output

All decision state (goal, hypothesis, stage, metrics, decisions, learnings) is persisted to the web database via the project-sync skill (see skills/project-sync/SKILL.md).

Agent Tech Stack

Layer Technology Version
Framework Next.js (App Router) 16
Language TypeScript 5
UI React 19
Styling Tailwind CSS 4
Components shadcn/ui (base-nova) latest
Skills vercel-react-best-practices latest

Key Principles

  • No implementation without an explicit intent. The agent will not help you build before the goal is stated.
  • No measurement without a defined hypothesis. What you plan to measure must follow from what you claim will happen.
  • No decision without evidence framing. Urgency is not a substitute for data quality.
  • No iteration without a written learning. Every cycle — good, bad, or inconclusive — must produce a reusable insight.

License

MIT

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