fix: exercise negative egress probe

[aryeko]

Summary

• Fixes F8 by replacing the hardcoded negative-egress failure with an exercised negative-egress attempt and recorded blocked / open / ambiguous observation.
• Fixes F9 by failing createRealExecutionHost closed when a probe declares substrate requests without an approved substrate manifest.
• Threads the negative-egress observation into real-host attestation and documents that this is mechanism proof, not EVRUN-full real-effect evidence.

Verification

• corepack pnpm vitest run packages/jig-sdk/tests/providers.real-confinement.p4.unit.test.ts packages/jig-sdk/tests/providers.real-host.p6.unit.test.ts packages/jig-sdk/tests/smoke/real-host.p4.smoke.test.ts (smoke skipped without EVRUN_SMOKE)
• corepack pnpm vitest run packages/jig-sdk/tests/records-golden.int.test.ts
• corepack pnpm check

Review

• Independent Codex reviewer approved the F8/F9 scope.

Limitations

• Real negative-egress smoke was not executed in this hermetic phase; real-effect proof remains in the later EVRUN-full lane.

[chatgpt-codex-connector]

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