chore: put back released check but get published status directly from changesets

[rossiam]

Put back in code that only runs some jobs if the changesets step of the npm-release job actually publishes, but changed slightly how it determines whether a publish happens or not. (Previously it had code that checked specifically if the packages/cli package was published but this is no longer a mono-repo.

For those not familiar with this somewhat unusual setup, the changesets step of the npm-release job does either one of two things:

1. If this is a "normal commit" (which should include new change sets in the .changeset directory), it should create (or update if one already exists) a pull request for doing a release.
2. If this is a merge of a pull request created by option 1, a release is actually made.

I think there might be something still broken though because I would have expected that PR to be generated even though other later steps are failing. We might have to force it with a new fake changeset or something.

[changeset-bot]

⚠️ No Changeset found

Latest commit: 3db7060

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