feat: add FRS 1994–2021 to rebuild manifest#25
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nikhilwoodruff merged 5 commits intomainfrom Apr 8, 2026
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Python scripts pull calibration targets from OBR EFO (tax/benefit aggregates), HMRC SPI (income distributions by band), DWP stat-xplore (benefit caseloads), and ONS (demographics). Rust module reweights household data using Adam optimiser in log-space to minimise mean squared relative error, with holdout validation for HMRC count targets. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
UC_Monthly measure is V_F_UC_CASELOAD_FULL (people), not V_F_UC_HOUSEHOLD. PIP uses PIP_Monthly_new database (post-2019). Simplified queries to use no dimensions — stat-xplore auto-selects the latest month. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds pension credit, carer's allowance, attendance allowance, state pension, ESA, and DLA caseloads from stat-xplore, plus UC household breakdowns by family type, child/carer/LCWRA/housing entitlement. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Run a baseline simulation before calibrating so targets can reference simulated variables (income_tax, national_insurance, vat, etc.) rather than raw input proxies. Income tax RMSRE drops from 79% to 1%. Also adds benunit entity support to the calibration matrix builder, and updates OBR targets to use simulated tax/benefit variables (income_tax, national_insurance, vat, fuel_duty, capital_gains_tax, stamp_duty) and benunit-level benefit variables (universal_credit, housing_benefit, etc.). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add BenunitFilter struct for UC subgroup targets (is_couple, has_children, has_carer, has_lcwra, has_lcw, has_housing) - Add total_ni variable (employee + employer NI) for OBR NI receipts - ONS targets now emitted for years 2024-2030 so they bind regardless of calibration year (fixes weight sum blowup from 34m to ~29m) - DWP UC subgroup targets now carry benunit_filter conditions - Add historical FRS years 1994-2021 to rebuild_all manifest Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Extends the rebuild manifest to cover all 30 FRS years from 1994 to 2023. Raw tab files were downloaded from UKDS and uploaded to gs://policyengine-uk-microdata/ukds/frs//, then extracted via the Rust pipeline. Clean CSVs (persons, benunits, households) for all years 1994–2029 are now live in GCS.