Skip to content

Preparing for CD weighs pipeline: Add per-bin CTC targets to state spec (169 → 175 targets), to match CD treatment of CTC#473

Merged
donboyd5 merged 1 commit intomasterfrom
pr5-state-ctc-bins
Mar 26, 2026
Merged

Preparing for CD weighs pipeline: Add per-bin CTC targets to state spec (169 → 175 targets), to match CD treatment of CTC#473
donboyd5 merged 1 commit intomasterfrom
pr5-state-ctc-bins

Conversation

@donboyd5
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

Add per-bin CTC targets to state spec (169 → 175 targets), to match planned Congressional District treatment of CTC

This adds by-agi-bin CTC targets to the state spec. While working on the CD pipeline, we discovered a bug in our prior treatment of CTC that had made it hard to target CTC by AGI bin. We fixed that bug and this PR implements the CTC agi-bin targets for states, leading to improved state results. We plan to have the same agi-bin targeting of CTC for the forthcoming CD weights pipeline.

Add 6 per-bin CTC rows (amount + nz-count for $10K-$25K, $25K-$50K, $50K-$75K) to the state target spec, matching the CD spec. CTC was previously total-only for states because a duplicate shares bug made per-bin CTC infeasible. That bug was fixed in PR #471.

Results: violations dropped from 30 areas / 125 targets to 14 areas / 34 targets. All CTC per-bin targets hit within 0.5% tolerance. Previously some had been off by 8% or more. Bystander distortion unchanged (worst moved by 0.2 percentage points).
State fingerprint updated.

Prepared by @donboyd5 and Claude Code

Add 6 per-bin CTC rows (amount + nz-count for $10K-$25K, $25K-$50K,
$50K-$75K) to match the CD spec. Previously CTC was total-only for
states.

Results: 14 areas with violations (was 30 with 169 targets), 34
violated targets (was 125). Bystander distortion unchanged. The
duplicate CTC shares bug (fixed in PR 2) made per-bin CTC feasible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
@donboyd5 donboyd5 merged commit 31de12a into master Mar 26, 2026
1 check passed
@donboyd5 donboyd5 deleted the pr5-state-ctc-bins branch March 26, 2026 13:02
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant