February 2026 CBO baseline update

[jdebacker]

This PR is to update the model with CBO 2026 February baseline update.

New data files including grow factors & CPS weight files are generated from Tax-Data's v0.5.0

[martinholmer]

@jdebacker said in PR #3006:

This PR is to update the model with CBO 2025 January baseline update.

This sentence is not consistent with the title of the PR ("February 2026 CBO baseline update") and is not consistent with taxdata PR 456.

Can the sentence and its link be fixed?

[jdebacker]

@martinholmer I fixed the year. Thanks.

Are any changes needed to current_law_policy.json? I haven't done one of these updates in a long time. I ran update_pcl.py, but no changes were made from that.

[martinholmer]

@jdebacker said in PR #3006:

I fixed the year. Thanks.

Great!

Are any changes needed to current_law_policy.json?
I haven't done one of these updates in a long time.
I ran update_pcl.py, but no changes were made from that.

No changes needed in the policy_current_law.json file.
Changes will be required in that file when the value of the
Policy.LAST_KNOWN_YEAR parameter is incremented.
Do you know when the tax policy parameters will be available
to do that next?

[codecov]

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 100.00%. Comparing base (eadfe78) to head (933c88f).
⚠️ Report is 6 commits behind head on master.

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff            @@
##            master     #3006   +/-   ##
=========================================
  Coverage   100.00%   100.00%           
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  Files           13        13           
  Lines         2720      2720           
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  Hits          2720      2720           

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Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
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[martinholmer]

@jdebacker,
When I use PR #3006 files to use puf.csv to simulate taxes in 2036, I get this error:

(taxcalc-dev) Tax-Calculator> tc puf.csv 2036 --exact --tables --params
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/opt/anaconda3/envs/taxcalc-dev/bin/tc", line 7, in <module>
    sys.exit(cli_tc_main())
             ~~~~~~~~~~~^^
  File "/Users/mrh/Tax-Calculator/taxcalc/cli/tc.py", line 300, in cli_tc_main
    tcio.init(
    ~~~~~~~~~^
        input_data=inputfn,
        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    ...<5 lines>...
        exact_calculations=args.exact,
        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    )
    ^
  File "/Users/mrh/Tax-Calculator/taxcalc/taxcalcio.py", line 541, in init
    self.recs_ref.increment_year()
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^
  File "/Users/mrh/Tax-Calculator/taxcalc/records.py", line 281, in increment_year
    super().increment_year()
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^
  File "/Users/mrh/Tax-Calculator/taxcalc/data.py", line 160, in increment_year
    assert wt_colname in self.WT.columns, (
           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
AssertionError: no weights for new year 2036

Can you provide me with the new puf_weights.csv.gz file?
I'm assuming it was generated in the recently-merged taxdata PR
as was a new cps_weights.csv.gz file.

[martinholmer]

@jdebacker, Your #3006 PR is behind the master branch:

Can you merge into your CBO_2026_Feb branch all recent changes on the master branch and push your development branch to GitHub again?

[jdebacker]

@martinholmer writes:

Can you merge into your CBO_2026_Feb branch all recent changes on the master branch and push your development branch to GitHub again?

Done

Can you provide me with the new puf_weights.csv.gz file? I'm assuming it was generated in the recently-merged taxdata PR as was a new cps_weights.csv.gz file.

Yes, both files are created if you run the taxdata package, but only cps_weights.csv.gz remains in this repo. The updated version of the CPS weights have been committed with this PR.

Do you know when the tax policy parameters will be available to do that next?

I don't know.