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Probabilistic Identity Infrastructure

Independent Security Analysis


Author: Christopher Patrick Kuntz
Role: Independent Researcher
Contact: christopher@cpk.solutions
Status: v1.0 (Initial Public Release)
Date: December 2025


Overview

This repository contains an independent security analysis of an emergent probabilistic identity infrastructure formed by modern advertising, fraud prevention, AML, blockchain analytics, and AI-assisted inference systems.

The analysis documents how identity is increasingly inferred through continuity of behavior across devices, platforms, networks, and transactions, and how this inferred continuity is treated as authoritative in downstream security, enforcement, and recovery workflows.

This work is descriptive, not prescriptive.
It does not allege intent, wrongdoing, or centralized control.
Its purpose is to accurately name the system as it currently operates, identify its failure modes, and support proper threat modeling.


Scope

This analysis focuses on:

  • Continuity-based identity inference across web, mobile, platform, network, and blockchain layers
  • Shared inference mechanics between advertising systems and AML/fraud systems
  • The role of AI in stabilizing and amplifying probabilistic linkage
  • The impact of agentic automation and programmable payments on attacker cost
  • Downstream exploitation paths, including address poisoning and SIM swap–mediated account takeover

This repository does not:

  • Claim omniscience or universal coverage
  • Make legal or policy recommendations
  • Assert inevitability of harm
  • Propose regulatory action

Methodology

  • Systems-level analysis and threat modeling
  • Review of peer-reviewed literature, regulator publications, and industry documentation
  • Synthesis across domains rather than novel empirical data collection
  • Conservative probabilistic framing throughout
  • Explicit scope limitations and falsifiable claims

Drafting and editorial assistance tools were used. All analytical claims, structure, and final wording are author-controlled.


Key Contributions

  • Formal articulation of probabilistic identity as a security-relevant infrastructure
  • Identification of confidence laundering and contestability gaps
  • Mapping of advertising and AML systems as parallel inference architectures
  • Analysis of agentic AI as an amplification layer, not a new threat class
  • Documentation of SIM swap and SMS-based 2FA as downstream exploitation paths

Repository Contents

probabilistic-identity-security-analysis/
├── report/
│   ├── PROBABILISTIC_IDENTITY_SECURITY_ANALYSIS_v1.md
│   ├── APPENDICES.md
│   └── Security Analysis Probabilistic Identity Infrastructure.pdf
├── artifacts/
│   └── reference_materials.md
├── PORTFOLIO_SUMMARY.md
├── README.md
├── LICENSE.md
└── .gitignore

How to read this:
Start with PORTFOLIO_SUMMARY.md, then report/PROBABILISTIC_IDENTITY_SECURITY_ANALYSIS_v1.md, then report/APPENDICES.md.

Directory Contents
/report/ Full security analysis, appendices, and PDF
/artifacts/ Supporting tables, diagrams, and reference material
PORTFOLIO_SUMMARY.md High-level summary for reviewers
README.md Scope, methodology, and framing

License

Released under CC BY 4.0 for review and discussion.
No warranty is expressed or implied.


Revision History

Version Date Notes
v1.0 December 2025 Initial public release

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Independent security analysis of emergent probabilistic identity infrastructure (December 2025)

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