Author: Alvaro Garriscalzada
Date: February 2026
Dataset: United Nations Digital Library -- 947,434 vote records, 202 member states, 43 European countries
This repository presents a quantitative analysis of European voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) across eight United States presidential administrations (1981-2025). Using pairwise voting agreement rates computed on ternary-encoded vote matrices for 43 European states, the study documents the transformation of European voting behavior from a divided continent during the Cold War (61.8% average pairwise agreement under Reagan) to a near-monolithic voting bloc at peak cohesion (93.4% under Bush Jr). EU-27 member states consistently maintain 2-3 percentage points higher cohesion than the broader European group, confirming the coordination effect of EU common foreign and security policy mechanisms. The analysis reveals a moderate decline in cohesion after 2008, reaching 87.4% under Biden, followed by a recovery to 91.1% under Trump II, which may reflect European unification in response to U.S. unilateralism. The United Kingdom was the least cohesive major European country during the Reagan era. The findings provide empirical evidence for the consolidation of the EU as the most unified voting bloc in the General Assembly and quantify the impact of EU enlargement, the Common Foreign and Security Policy, and the integration of former Eastern Bloc states on multilateral voting behavior.
unga-european-cohesion-analysis/
|-- paper/
| |-- EUROPEAN_COHESION_PAPER.md # Full academic paper
|-- code/
| |-- european_cohesion_map.py # European cohesion analysis and visualization
|-- data/
| |-- european_cohesion_summary.csv # Per-presidency cohesion statistics
| |-- european_cohesion_by_presidency.csv # Per-country cohesion detail
|-- figures/
| |-- (European cohesion visualizations)
|-- interactive_maps/
| |-- european_cohesion_map.html # Five-tab interactive European analysis
|-- LICENSE
Voting records obtained from the United Nations Digital Library (https://digitallibrary.un.org/), snapshot dated 2026-02-06. European countries defined as EU-27 member states plus EFTA members, United Kingdom, EU candidate countries, and other European states (43 countries total).
- Pairwise Agreement: For each pair of European countries, the fraction of resolutions where both countries cast identical votes (excluding absences) is computed per presidency period.
- Cohesion Metric: The arithmetic mean of all pairwise agreement rates within the European group, computed separately for each presidency.
- EU-27 Subset: A separate cohesion metric restricted to current EU-27 members, to isolate the effect of EU institutional coordination.
- Minimum Pairwise Agreement: The lowest pairwise agreement rate observed within Europe per presidency, identifying the most divergent country pairs.
| Presidency | European Cohesion | EU-27 Cohesion | Minimum Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan (1981-1988) | 61.8% | 63.0% | 25.7% |
| Bush Sr (1989-1992) | 76.8% | 80.2% | 34.8% |
| Clinton (1993-2000) | 88.0% | 90.0% | 62.0% |
| Bush Jr (2001-2008) | 93.4% | 94.4% | 74.8% |
| Obama (2009-2016) | 91.5% | 93.0% | 69.1% |
| Trump I (2017-2020) | 88.7% | 90.9% | 64.6% |
| Biden (2021-2024) | 87.4% | 90.0% | 56.1% |
| Trump II (2025-present) | 91.1% | 92.9% | 76.6% |
- European voting cohesion increased by 31.6 percentage points from Reagan to Bush Jr, reflecting the end of the Cold War, EU enlargement, and the Common Foreign and Security Policy.
- Peak cohesion of 93.4% was reached under Bush Jr (2001-2008), when even the most divergent European pair agreed on 74.8% of resolutions.
- A moderate decline occurred after 2008, reaching 87.4% under Biden, driven by divergent positions on Middle East issues, post-Brexit UK trajectory, and rising populism.
- Cohesion recovered to 91.1% under Trump II, suggesting European unification in response to U.S. unilateralism and withdrawal from multilateral institutions.
- EU-27 members consistently show 2-3 percentage points higher cohesion than the broader European group, confirming the coordination role of EU institutions.
pandas >= 1.5
numpy >= 1.23
scikit-learn >= 1.2
scipy >= 1.10
matplotlib >= 3.6
seaborn >= 0.12
Garriscalzada, A. (2026). European Voting Cohesion in the United Nations General
Assembly (1981-2025): A Quantitative Assessment of EU Foreign Policy Convergence
Across U.S. Presidential Administrations. GitHub repository.
This project is licensed under the MIT License. The underlying UN voting data is in the public domain.