diff --git a/src/lib/predictions.ts b/src/lib/predictions.ts index f170a78..c5787f2 100644 --- a/src/lib/predictions.ts +++ b/src/lib/predictions.ts @@ -27,398 +27,6 @@ export function getMonthName(month: number): string { } const RAW_PREDICTIONS: Prediction[] = [ - { - id: 'tech-2025-01-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 0, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.85, - title: 'GPT-5 and Claude 4 released with major advances', - description: 'Next-generation LLMs with dramatically improved reasoning, multimodal capabilities, and reduced hallucinations.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'AI Futures Model', url: 'https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/forecast', confidence: 0.82 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.88 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'individual-2025-01-1', - domain: 'individual', - month: 0, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.72, - title: 'AI personal assistants manage daily schedules autonomously', - description: 'Advanced AI capable of autonomous scheduling, email management, and task prioritization becomes commonplace.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Technology Adoption Survey', confidence: 0.69 }, - { name: 'Consumer Technology Report', confidence: 0.75 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'economic-2025-01-1', - domain: 'economic', - month: 0, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.78, - title: 'Global recession risks diminish', - description: 'Economic indicators stabilize as central banks achieve soft landing after interest rate hikes.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'IMF World Economic Outlook', confidence: 0.81 }, - { name: 'Federal Reserve Analysis', confidence: 0.75 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-02-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 1, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.81, - title: 'Apple Vision Pro 2 launches with mass appeal', - description: 'Second-gen spatial computing headset at lower price point drives mainstream AR adoption.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'Apple Supply Chain Reports', confidence: 0.84 }, - { name: 'Consumer Electronics Forecast', confidence: 0.78 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'social-2025-02-1', - domain: 'social', - month: 1, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.75, - title: 'Gen Z becomes largest workforce cohort', - description: 'Generation Z overtakes Millennials, bringing new workplace culture expectations.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Bureau of Labor Statistics', confidence: 0.79 }, - { name: 'Workforce Demographics Study', confidence: 0.71 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'governance-2025-02-1', - domain: 'governance', - month: 1, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.77, - title: 'Carbon border taxes implemented in EU', - description: 'Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism comes into effect, reshaping global trade.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'EU Policy Timeline', url: 'https://ec.europa.eu/', confidence: 0.88 }, - { name: 'Trade Policy Analysis', confidence: 0.66 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'geopolitical-2025-03-1', - domain: 'geopolitical', - month: 2, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.82, - title: 'India becomes third largest economy', - description: 'India surpasses Japan and Germany in GDP rankings.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'World Bank Projections', confidence: 0.85 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.79 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'economic-2025-03-1', - domain: 'economic', - month: 2, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.64, - title: 'Bitcoin surpasses $150,000', - description: 'Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity drive cryptocurrency to new highs.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Prediction Markets', confidence: 0.61 }, - { name: 'Financial Analyst Consensus', confidence: 0.67 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-03-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 2, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.79, - title: 'Nvidia H200 chips power 80% of AI training', - description: 'Next-gen AI accelerators dominate machine learning infrastructure.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Semiconductor Industry Report', confidence: 0.82 }, - { name: 'AI Infrastructure Analysis', confidence: 0.76 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'individual-2025-04-1', - domain: 'individual', - month: 3, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.68, - title: 'Mental health apps reach 500M active users', - description: 'Digital mental health platforms achieve mainstream adoption globally.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Digital Health Report', confidence: 0.71 }, - { name: 'Mental Health Technology Survey', confidence: 0.65 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'social-2025-04-1', - domain: 'social', - month: 3, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.83, - title: 'TikTok reaches 2 billion monthly users', - description: 'Short-form video continues explosive growth, reshaping media consumption.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Social Media Analytics', confidence: 0.86 }, - { name: 'Digital Trends Report', confidence: 0.80 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-04-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 3, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.76, - title: '6G network trials begin in Asia', - description: 'Next-generation wireless technology testing starts with 10x faster speeds than 5G.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Telecom Industry Roadmap', confidence: 0.73 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.79 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'economic-2025-05-1', - domain: 'economic', - month: 4, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.71, - title: 'AI startups receive record $120B in funding', - description: 'Venture capital investment in artificial intelligence hits unprecedented levels.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'VC Investment Tracker', confidence: 0.74 }, - { name: 'AI Industry Report', confidence: 0.68 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'governance-2025-05-1', - domain: 'governance', - month: 4, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.89, - title: 'EU AI Act fully enforced', - description: 'Comprehensive AI regulations set global standards for AI governance and safety.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'EU Official Timeline', url: 'https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/', confidence: 0.95 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.83 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-06-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 5, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.73, - title: 'AI writes 60% of new software code', - description: 'GitHub Copilot and competitors fundamentally transform software development.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'GitHub Developer Survey', confidence: 0.70 }, - { name: 'AI Futures Model', url: 'https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/forecast', confidence: 0.76 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'individual-2025-06-1', - domain: 'individual', - month: 5, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.69, - title: 'Wearable tech tracks 50 health metrics continuously', - description: 'Advanced biosensors enable comprehensive health monitoring via smartwatches.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Wearable Technology Report', confidence: 0.72 }, - { name: 'Digital Health Survey', confidence: 0.66 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'geopolitical-2025-07-1', - domain: 'geopolitical', - month: 6, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.76, - title: 'BRICS currency initiative advances', - description: 'Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa formalize alternative to dollar system.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'International Economics Institute', confidence: 0.73 }, - { name: 'Geopolitical Forecast', confidence: 0.79 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'social-2025-07-1', - domain: 'social', - month: 6, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.72, - title: 'Digital nomads exceed 60 million globally', - description: 'Location-independent work becomes widespread lifestyle choice.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Remote Work Institute', confidence: 0.69 }, - { name: 'Future of Work Report', confidence: 0.75 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-08-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 7, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.74, - title: 'Solid-state batteries enter mass production', - description: 'Next-gen batteries with 2x energy density begin commercial manufacturing.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'Battery Technology Roadmap', confidence: 0.71 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.77 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'geopolitical-2025-08-1', - domain: 'geopolitical', - month: 7, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.79, - title: 'Taiwan-China tensions escalate significantly', - description: 'Military exercises and economic pressure raise international concerns.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'Strategic Affairs Institute', confidence: 0.82 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.76 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'social-2025-09-1', - domain: 'social', - month: 8, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.78, - title: 'Remote work stabilizes at 45% of knowledge workers', - description: 'Hybrid arrangements become permanent, reshaping cities and real estate.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'McKinsey Future of Work', confidence: 0.81 }, - { name: 'Workplace Trends Report', confidence: 0.75 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'economic-2025-09-1', - domain: 'economic', - month: 8, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.81, - title: 'Electric vehicles reach 30% of new car sales', - description: 'EVs achieve critical mass as infrastructure and costs improve.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'Automotive Industry Report', confidence: 0.84 }, - { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2025.htm', confidence: 0.78 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-10-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 9, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.77, - title: 'AI translation indistinguishable from human', - description: 'Real-time translation services achieve human-quality performance.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Language AI Report', confidence: 0.74 }, - { name: 'Translation Technology Survey', confidence: 0.80 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'governance-2025-10-1', - domain: 'governance', - month: 9, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.71, - title: 'Digital identity systems go live nationally', - description: 'Major countries deploy comprehensive digital ID for citizens.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Digital Government Report', confidence: 0.68 }, - { name: 'Identity Tech Institute', confidence: 0.74 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'individual-2025-11-1', - domain: 'individual', - month: 10, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.66, - title: 'Wearables prevent 600k deaths through early detection', - description: 'Continuous health monitoring achieves significant mortality reduction.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'WHO Digital Health Report', confidence: 0.63 }, - { name: 'Medical Technology Forecast', confidence: 0.69 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'geopolitical-2025-11-1', - domain: 'geopolitical', - month: 10, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.68, - title: 'Climate migration reaches 15 million annually', - description: 'Environmental displacement becomes major humanitarian challenge.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'UN Climate Migration Report', confidence: 0.71 }, - { name: 'Environmental Institute', confidence: 0.65 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'social-2025-12-1', - domain: 'social', - month: 11, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.75, - title: 'Esports viewership surpasses traditional sports', - description: 'Competitive gaming audiences exceed conventional sports in key demographics.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'Entertainment Industry Report', confidence: 0.78 }, - { name: 'Digital Media Analytics', confidence: 0.72 }, - ], - }, - { - id: 'tech-2025-12-1', - domain: 'tech', - month: 11, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.82, - title: 'AI content detection becomes standard practice', - description: 'Reliable systems for identifying AI-generated content widely deployed.', - impact: 'medium', - sources: [ - { name: 'AI Safety Research', confidence: 0.79 }, - { name: 'Digital Media Institute', confidence: 0.85 }, - ], - }, { id: 'tech-2026-01-1', domain: 'tech', @@ -1105,21 +713,6 @@ const RAW_PREDICTIONS: Prediction[] = [ { name: 'Future Timeline', url: 'https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2035.htm', confidence: 0.87 }, ], }, - { - id: 'edu-2025-12-ai-tutor-default', - domain: 'tech', - month: 11, - year: 2025, - probability: 0.82, - title: 'AI tutors become default scaffolding in affluent systems', - description: - 'Building on rapid frontier-model releases and consumer AI assistants, 1:1 coaching for practice, explanations, and study planning becomes the default baseline; teachers reallocate time toward motivation and targeted interventions.', - impact: 'high', - sources: [ - { name: 'Reuters', url: 'https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-rely-artificial-intelligence-education-reform-bid-2025-04-17/', confidence: 0.8 }, - { name: 'UNESCO', url: 'https://www.unesco.org/en/digital-education/ai-future-learning', confidence: 0.74 }, - ], - }, { id: 'edu-2026-04-assessment-bifurcates', domain: 'governance',