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Maybe there's something I don't know, but can't we get more accurate predicted hits if we don't rely 100% on hitpoints? For example, powered staves give 2x damage as magic exp, so if the player is wielding a powered stave, we can always give exact predicted hit. Most ranged and melee weapons also give 4x damage as ranged (or corresponding attack, strength, or def) exp.
Some things would throw this for a loop, but most of them have solutions too. Off the top of my head:
- Player wielding powered staff can get magic exp by teleporting, but shouldn't get a predicted hit.
- Solution: Check if player got hitpoints exp (at all) on the same tick.
- Using a weird attack style like longrange or controlled changes how much exp you get.
- Solution: For powered staves, maybe just default back to relying 100% on hitpoints exp, I don't actually know how the exp is split between magic and def. For ranged, I'm pretty sure it is just split in half between ranged and def, so just use the 2x damage as ranged exp to calculate predicted hit. For controlled, can default back to relying on hitpoints exp, or we can look at all 4 exp drops (atk, str, def, hp) and use the number that shows up the most often (assuming not all of the exp drops are the same).
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