Goal
Add volatility-based trading to Options GPS. Compare Synth's forecasted volatility against market implied volatility from option pricing. When they diverge, recommend long vol or short vol strategies (straddles, strangles, etc.).
User Story
A trader doesn't have a directional view but notices vol is mispriced. They select a "vol" view in Options GPS, and the tool shows whether Synth vol is above or below market IV — then recommends the right vol strategy with probability of profit and risk.
Scope
- New view option for volatility trading (alongside bullish/bearish/neutral)
- Compare Synth forecasted volatility vs market implied volatility derived from option pricing
- Recommend long vol strategies (straddles, strangles) when Synth vol > market IV
- Recommend short vol strategies (iron condors, short straddles) when Synth vol < market IV
- Same guardrails, PoP/EV scoring, and risk management as existing strategies
Why
Vol trades are more consistent than directional bets because volatility mean-reverts. Synth's probabilistic distributions are built to answer "how much will it move" — this feature uses that strength directly. It also deepens the tool's use of Synth's probabilistic modeling across multiple endpoints.
Deliverables
- Working vol trading mode in Options GPS
- Demo video showing the vol spread analysis and strategy recommendation
- Updated 1-page technical paper (tools/options-gps/README.md)
Goal
Add volatility-based trading to Options GPS. Compare Synth's forecasted volatility against market implied volatility from option pricing. When they diverge, recommend long vol or short vol strategies (straddles, strangles, etc.).
User Story
A trader doesn't have a directional view but notices vol is mispriced. They select a "vol" view in Options GPS, and the tool shows whether Synth vol is above or below market IV — then recommends the right vol strategy with probability of profit and risk.
Scope
Why
Vol trades are more consistent than directional bets because volatility mean-reverts. Synth's probabilistic distributions are built to answer "how much will it move" — this feature uses that strength directly. It also deepens the tool's use of Synth's probabilistic modeling across multiple endpoints.
Deliverables