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		<title>free range statistics - R</title>
		<description>Posts categorised as 'R'</description>
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				<title>Pacific island population pyramids (again) by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;This post is the fifth of a series of seven on population issues in the Pacific, re-generating the charts I used in a keynote speech before the November 2025 meeting of the Pacific Heads of Planning and Statistics in Wellington, New Zealand. The seven pieces of the puzzle are:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population&quot;&gt;Visual summaries of population size and growth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/12/04/pacific-net-migration&quot;&gt;Net migration&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2026/02/16/pacific-cities&quot;&gt;World cities with the most Pacific Islanders&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2026/02/18/pacific-diaspora&quot;&gt;Pacific diaspora&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Population pyramids (this post, today)&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Remittances (to come)&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Tying it all together (to come)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Today’s post is about population pyramids, and is familiar territory for regular readers of the blog, if any. The code is basically an adaptation of that used to create &lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/05/17/animated-population-pyramids&quot;&gt;these animated population pyramids&lt;/a&gt;, tweaked to create still images that I needed to make the point in my talk.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;kiribati-and-marshall-islands&quot;&gt;Kiribati and Marshall Islands&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In the first instance that meant this image, which contrasts the demographic shape and growth of two coral atoll nations, Kiribati and Marshall Islands:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0314-kiribati-marshalls.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0314-kiribati-marshalls.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Kiribati today has about four times the population of Marshall Islands but in 1980 was only about double. The significant thing here is the wasp waist of the Marshall Islands pyramid in 2025—while it had a similar shape to Kiribati in 1980. People at peak working and reproductive age are literally absent from today’s Marshall Islands—in this case, primarily in the USA, which gives automatic residence rights to the Compact of Free Association Countries (Marshall Islands, Palau and Federated States of Micronesia).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The result of this is that Marshall Islands not only benefits from its individuals having more freedom of movement and opportunity, and sending back remittances; but also having a pressure valve for what would otherwise be a rapidly (too fast?) growing population. To put it bluntly, Kiribati has a problem of too many people (particularly on crowded southern Tarawa); Marshall Islands, if it has a population problem, is one of too few. The contrast of crowded, relatively poor Tarawa and less-crowded, relatively well-off Majuro is an obvious and stark one to anyone travelling to them both in quick succession.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That first chart tries to show both the absolute size and shape at the same time. An alternative presentation lets the x axis be free, giving up comparability of size but making changes in shape more visible. There are pros and cons of each but the free axis version certainly dramatically shows the change in shape of Marshall Islands in particular:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0314-kiribati-marshalls-freex.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0314-kiribati-marshalls-freex.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code to download the data from the Pacific Data Hub and draw those charts:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# this script draws population pyramids for 1980 and 2025, firstly&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for Marshall Islands and Kiribati together for comparison &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# purposes, and then for each of the 21 PICTs (exlcuding Pitcairn)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# so we can pick and choose which ones&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Peter Ellis November 2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;janitor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rsdmx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISOcodes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# see https://blog.datawrapper.de/gendercolor/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;#D4855A&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;#C5CB81&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Female&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Male&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Download all population data needed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;if&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;exists&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pop2picts&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;readSDMX&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://stats-sdmx-disseminate.pacificdata.org/rest/data/SPC,DF_POP_PROJ,3.0/A.AS+CK+FJ+PF+GU+KI+MH+FM+NR+NC+NU+MP+PW+PG+WS+SB+TK+TO+TV+VU+WF.MIDYEARPOPEST.F+M.Y00T04+Y05T09+Y10T14+Y15T19+Y20T24+Y25T29+Y30T34+Y35T39+Y40T44+Y45T49+Y50T54+Y55T59+Y60T64+Y65T69+Y70T999?startPeriod=1980&amp;amp;endPeriod=2025&amp;amp;dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as_tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;clean_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# sort out the from and to ages, rename sex, and add country labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;^Y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;separate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;into&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;from&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;to&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sep&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;T&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;remove&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;FALSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;T&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;-&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;-999&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;+&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fixed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;case_when&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;M&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Male&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;F&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Female&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;factor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;left_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISO_3166_1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;geo_pict&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Alpha_2&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1980&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#----------Marshalls and Kiribati-------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# subset data to these two countries:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Kiribati&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# breaks in axis for Marshall and Kiribati chart:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x_breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-6000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-2000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# draw chart:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pyramid_km&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# according to Wikipedia males are usually on the left and females on the right&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Female&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s1&quot;&gt;&apos;Female&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Male&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s1&quot;&gt;&apos;Male&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Age group&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x_breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;6,000&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;4,000&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2,000\n(male)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2,000\n(female)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;4,000&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;6,000&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;strip.text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;14&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;face&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;bold&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pyramid_km&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pyramid_km_fr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pyramid_km&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_x&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pyramid_km_fr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;all-pacific-island-countries-one-at-a-time&quot;&gt;All Pacific island countries, one at a time&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I used the same chart to generate a PNG image of each Pacific island country, one at a time. In the actual talk I pulled a few of these in to the PowerPoint to engage the audience and contrast different shapes. These plots are all sized to fit in to one frame in the PowerPoint template I was using.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;For example, here is Tuvalu:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/pyramid-Tuvalu.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Until very recently, it has been relatively difficult to migrate out from Tuvalu. As a result we see a more or less regular population pyramid for a country in the late stage of demographic transition.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In contrast, here is French territory Wallis and Futuna:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/pyramid-Wallis and Futuna.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Wallis and Futuna’s inhabitants can move freely to other French territories such as New Caledonia, and have done so in considerable numbers. Hence we see a shortage in the 25-39 year age bracket.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code to produce those pyramids for individual countries, saving them neatly in a folder for future use. Yes, I always use loops for this sort of thing, finding them both easy to write and to read (and saying loops are never any good in R is just outmoded prejudice):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------population pyramid individual image for each pict-----------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# This section draws one chart and saves as an image for each PICT&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dir.create&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pic-pyramids&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;showWarnings&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;FALSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;all_picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unique&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;for&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;all_picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_pyramid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Female&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s1&quot;&gt;&apos;Female&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Male&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s1&quot;&gt;&apos;Male&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Age group&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;strip.text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;14&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;face&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;bold&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pic-pyramids/pyramid-{this_pict}.png&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;width&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;height&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2800&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;res&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;cairo-png&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;this_pyramid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dev.off&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for today. The final post in the series will say more about the implications of all this in the context of the other bits of analysis.&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
				<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/03/01/pacific-pyramids</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/03/01/pacific-pyramids</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Pacific diaspora by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;This post is the fourth of a series of (probably) seven on population issues in the Pacific, re-generating the charts I used in a keynote speech before the November 2025 meeting of the Pacific Heads of Planning and Statistics in Wellington, New Zealand. The seven pieces of the puzzle are:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population&quot;&gt;Visual summaries of population size and growth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/12/04/pacific-net-migration&quot;&gt;Net migration&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2026/02/16/pacific-cities&quot;&gt;World cities with the most Pacific Islanders&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Pacific diaspora (this post, today)&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Population pyramids (to come)&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Remittances (to come)&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Tying it all together (to come)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Today’s post is all about creating this one eye-catching chart, comparing the number of people in a country with its diaspora—people who ethnically or otherwise identify with the country but are living overseas:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0313-diaspora-bar.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0313-diaspora-bar.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;As the chart notes, the diaspora numbers are an underestimate because I’ve only drawn on the New Zealand, Australian and USA censuses, and only partly for that. For example, I decided the number of Papua New Guineans living in New Zealand and USA wasn’t material and they haven’t been included. I’m confident this doesn’t change the look of the chart, but obviously if I were trying to create the best possible comprehensive estimates I should include these.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It’s a pretty dramatic story. We can see seven countries with more people living overseas than in the country itself: Niue, Pitcairn Islands, Cook Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga and Marshall Islands. Apart from Marshall Islands, these are all Polynesian. In fact, Tuvalu is the only Polynesian country in this collection that has more people living in-country than overseas (for now—this is likely to change now that Australia has agreed with Tuvalu for a regular annual intake of people via lottery).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Note that the three French territories (New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and French Polynesia), and three American territories (American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands and Guam) have been excluded from the plot.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;For the four small countries along the bottom row of the chart, the difference is particularly important—a big majority of their people are living overseas. From my last post we know that a lot of these are in Auckland. Pitcairn is the only one of these four that has more of its diaspora in Australia than New Zealand (there are Pitcairn-identifying people in the UK too, but not enough to make me systematically add in the UK to my data in what was essentially a pragmatic and visual exercise—see comments above).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
  &lt;p&gt;96% of Niueans, 90% of Cook Islanders and 59% of Marshall Islanders live overseas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And for the four countries at the top of the chart—somewhat larger and distinctly poorer than many of the others, and three of them Melanesian—we see no significant diaspora, relative to the home population.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code that creates this bar chart. Note that the data here are typed in by hand (!!) from various sources—not something I’d normally do, and would never recommend except for these really “small data” situations. I’ve checked it as thoroughly as I reasonably can, and the version I used in my talk that I’m adapting here was also peer reviewed by a work colleague.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# This script draws some charts of the diaspora of Pacific island countries and territories.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# It&apos;s pretty rough and certainly incomplete. The approach was to use the census figures&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for resident population of Pacific islander ancestry currently living in USA, Australia&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# and New Zealand; and compare that to populations resideing in the countries themselves.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# All sorts of known limitations which we are prepared to live with for these crude comparisons:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - different reference years (2025 for populations, and census years are 2018, 2020 and 2021)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - populations residing in the Pacific islands themselves are all ethnicities (e.g. will include&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#   Australian-descent people rsideing in those countries), haven&apos;t bothered to limit to just &quot;true&quot; Tongans, Samoans, etc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - not comprehensive e.g. I know there are some Pitcairn-descended people in UK but haven&apos;t included them. And of course&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#   there must be many others of these people in countries other than Australia, NZ and USA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - France not included at all. No ancestry data in French censuses so this would be tricky.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Peter Ellis 2025-11&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#---------------------Data prep-------------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rsdmx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISOcodes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Current populations of PICTs:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rsdmx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;::&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;readSDMX&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://stats-sdmx-disseminate.pacificdata.org/rest/data/SPC,DF_POP_PROJ,3.0/A..MIDYEARPOPEST._T._T?startPeriod=2025&amp;amp;endPeriod=2025&amp;amp;dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as_tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;left_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISOcodes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;::&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISO_3166_1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Alpha_2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;GEO_PICT&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Alpha_2&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obsValue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;drop_na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# out of interest what is the total population of all PICTs, Austrlaia and NZ together? (about 47m):&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;picts_and_anz&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;28.1e6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5.3e6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;picts_and_anz&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# https://tools.summaries.stats.govt.nz/ethnic-group/tongan and similar for 2023 NZ figure&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# table builder for Australian 2021 figures - see `https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ellisp/blog-source/refs/heads/master/data/total%20by%20pacific.csv`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Wikipedia for US figures, from 2020 census. Search for e.g. &quot;Palauans in USA wikipedia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;diaspora&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dest&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;people&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tonga&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;97824&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;34944&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9822&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Cook Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;94176&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;213069&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tuvalu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6585&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;25038&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;23808&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# includes Fijian Indian&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papua New Guinea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;22668&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Vanuatu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2380&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Solomon Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2704&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Kiribati&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1263&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;48354&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nauru&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;571&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Cook Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;27494&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2544&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                    
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tonga&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;43469&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6225&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;98022&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tuvalu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;995&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pitcairn&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;USA&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;52624&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 47300 if just &apos;alone&apos; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Palau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;USA&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;12202&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia, Federated States of&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;USA&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;21596&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Australia checked&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# New Zealand checked&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# USA checked&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------------------Bar chart------------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# data frame to inspect to get percentages.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops_with_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inner_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;diaspora&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Federated States of&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fed. St.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Overseas&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;people&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ungroup&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Overseas&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Overseas&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops_with_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Origin country`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;width&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_fill_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;brown&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;legend.position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;none&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.spacing&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;lines&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Number of people&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific Islander diaspora, arranged from lowest proportion overseas to highest&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Diaspora is a lower bound of full figure as it is based on just Australia, USA and New Zealand censuses.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Source: PDH.Stat for populations; Australian, USA and New Zealand Censuses for diaspora.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;an-alternative-not-so-good-visualisation&quot;&gt;An alternative (not so good) visualisation&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I used the same data to also make this scatter plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0313-diaspora-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0313-diaspora-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;But I don’t much like it. It’s difficult to interpret, and while it has a bit of extra information (which country the diaspora is in) this doesn’t outweigh the interpretation problems. it probably shouldn’t have a log scale as we really want to add up the numbers; but using a non-transformed scale makes it even more of a visual mess. I’m including it here really just for the record and to illustrate that the first try at visualising something isn’t always the best (and sometimes, a humble bar chart ends up being what you want). Here’s the code for the scatter plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pops&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inner_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;diaspora&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;people&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dest&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_abline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;slope&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;intercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;blue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;black&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;darkred&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;People living in origin country in 2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Diaspora in another country, recent census&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Disapora country&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific Island home population and diaspora in various countries&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

</description>
				<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/18/pacific-diaspora</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/18/pacific-diaspora</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>The world&apos;s biggest &apos;Pacific&apos; cities by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;This post is the third in a (somewhat interrupted) series on population issues in the Pacific, re-generating the charts I used in a keynote speech before the November 2025 meeting of the Pacific Heads of Planning and Statistics in Wellington, New Zealand. So far we have:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population&quot;&gt;Visual summaries of population size and growth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/12/04/pacific-net-migration&quot;&gt;Net migration&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;World cities with the most Pacific Islanders (this post, today)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;We often hear that Auckland is the world’s largest Polynesian city, or even the world’s largest Pacific Islander city; but which is the second or third largest?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This will be a short post. The end point is this single chart:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0312-pacific-cities.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0312-pacific-cities.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Port Moresby (the capital of Papua New Guinea) is the second biggest urban collection of Pacific Islanders, and in fact it isn’t far behind Auckland. Next come the largest cities of Indonesian Western New Guinea. I’m not well familiar with that part of the world and I might have missed some further cities of similar size, but am confident I got the first two. Coming in at numbers 5 and 6 we have Suva in Fiji, and Papeete in French Polynesia (on the island of Tahiti). Then we see that Sydney and Brisbane in Australia probably have more Pacific Islanders than do many of the famous cities of the Pacific, such as Lae, Honiara, Noumea and Port Vila. Samoa’s Apia doesn’t even make it on to the chart.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I couldn’t get data on French cities in the mainland ‘hexagon’, for which ethnicity information is difficult to obtain for deliberate decisions on the part of the statistical authorities. There are good reasons for this founded in history. But the number is probably too small to make it to the chart. Los Angeles could maybe be there if a broad enough geography is included, but the city definitions were a bit tough for me to deal with and in the end I opted to leave it out.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I’m sure there’s some omissions or errors here so would welcome corrections and comments, as usual. But the main point was illustrative, and aimed at pointing out the importance of some cities perhaps not often thought of as Pacific Islander urban concentrations, and I’m happy that it does that reasonably accurately.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There were a few choices here, such as whether to include West Papuans, Māori (who are pretty numerous in Australian cities as well as in New Zealand) and Hawaiians (and less materially as there are less of them, Torres Strait Islanders) as Pacific Islanders. I’m pretty happy that the answer is “yes” to include all of them, for our purposes. Note that if we excluded Māori from the Auckland count, it would no longer be the world’s biggest Pacific Islander city.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The real difficulty, and one I’m confident my solution for which could be improved, was in getting consistent definitions of “city” and good estimates of what proportion of that city are Pacific Islanders. The latter can come from census data, but I didn’t have time to go to each country’s latest census and ensure a comparable number, so had to resort to Wikipedia in some cases.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;For example of the problem of a definition of ‘city’, Honolulu itself has a population of around 350,000, but the &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honolulu&quot;&gt;Urban Honolulu metropolitan area&lt;/a&gt; is around 1 million (only a small proportion of whom are Pacific Islanders). Suva’s population is around 100,000; its metropolitan area brings this up to 185,000; and if you include Lami, Nasinu and Nausori (where the airport is) &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suva&quot;&gt;this becomes 330,000&lt;/a&gt;. In both these cases I used the greater metropolitan area, but not Nausori, etc. for Suva.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;For Australia and New Zealand I used the “Greater Capital City Statistical Areas” and “Territorial Authorities” respectively. This means I miss out on non-capital cities, like Gold Coast (population around 600,000 and around 1 per cent Pacific Islander) but I think that is ok. It means we are under-counting Wellington by the standard I used for Suva and Honolulu (Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt should probably be included, but they are their own TAs). Again, I think that is probably ok.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There’s at least one other more controversial problem I’ve skimmed over and won’t mention.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;For cities outside Australia and New Zealand I didn’t have time to get definitive estimates directly from each census and relied on Wikipedia and other secondary sources. This bit is highly error-prone, and could do with a more careful approach! Overall I’ve got a somewhat dim view  of the tossed-together code below, which was a real compromise between time and thoroughness. But hopefully the results are good enough for our illustrative purposes! Anywhere, here’s the code:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# this is a crude exploration of the question:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# &quot;What are the largest Pacific islander cities in the world?&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# It is doubtless incomplete and there are a bunch of more detailed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# issues to go into if we wanted to do this definitively.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Peter Ellis 2025-11&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------------New Zealand census data----------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Large file of Stats NZ census data to download. apparently the Census 2023&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# equivalent is not yet availalbe, so we just use the 2018 version:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dir.create&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fn&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data/nz_census_2018.zip&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;if&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;file.exists&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fn&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;download.file&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://www3.stats.govt.nz/2018census/8317_Age%20and%20sex%20by%20ethnic%20group%20(grouped%20total%20responses),%20for%20census%20night%20population%20counts,%202006,%202013,%20and%202018%20Censuses%20(RC,%20TA,%20SA2,%20DHB).zip&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destfile&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fn&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mode&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;wb&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the file is a zipped collection of long thin coded data table and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# dimension lookup tables explaining what each of the codes mean:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unzip&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fn&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;exdir&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_csv&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data/DimenLookupEthnic8317.csv&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_csv&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data/DimenLookupArea8317.csv&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# we are going to use the Territorial Authority level so we can pick up&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Christchurch, Wellington which are TAs. Note this means we are &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# not counting eg Lower Hutt as part of Wellington. An interpretation of &apos;greater Wellington&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# probably would include this. But this is an ok compromise for our purposes, I think?&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Takes a while because there is a mass of very detailed data here&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# but we are only using a tiny bit of it - second biggest regional groups&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# and just a small subset of the ethnic groups&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nz2018&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_csv&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;raw-data/Data8317.csv&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;left_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Ethnic&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Code&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Description&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;left_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Area&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Code&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Description&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Maori&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific Peoples&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# only Territorial Authority level:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_length&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Area&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total - Territorial Authority areas&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# total all people:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Age&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;999999&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# total all sexes:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Sex&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# just cities (not districts) |&amp;gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;grepl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;City&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Auckland&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;count&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# quick reality check - print to console the biggest TAs with Pacific peoples:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nz2018&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;desc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nz2018&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spread&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;desc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Pacific Peoples`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------Australian census data--------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Originally downloaded from australian tablebuilder,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# file is small so is committed to this repo:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# `/raw-data/ancestry pacific by greater city 2021 australia census.csv`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aus2021&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_csv&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ellisp/blog-source/refs/heads/master/data/ancestry%20pacific%20by%20greater%20city%202021%20australia%20census.csv&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;skip&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n_max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;26&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Total&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;...11&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`GCCSA (UR)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;is.na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Greater Sydney`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;grepl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;if_else&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Maori&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Maori&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific Peoples&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------Other--------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# these estimates from various ad hoc sources, mostly&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Wikipedia. Remembering we want number of pacific islanders,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# not total ppulation. Which means we have two difficult numbers&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# to get hold of. So this bit is certainly wrong! - just the&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# best estimate I could do in a hurry.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;other&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Port Moresby&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;400000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;PNG&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Lae&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;PNG&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Mount Hagen&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;50000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;PNG&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# pop is 400k+ but what proportion is pacific? - generally west papua about 75% papuans:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Jayapura&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;320000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Indonesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Sorong&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;.75&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;300000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Indonesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Greater Suva&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;185000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# not counting nausori&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Lautoka&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;75000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nasinu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;74000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Only about 9% of greater honolulu identify as pacific islander:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Honolulu urban area&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.09&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1e6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;USA&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Greater Noumea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.26&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;200000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Caledonia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papeete&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;137000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;French Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Honiara&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;80000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Solomon Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;South Tarawa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;70000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Kiribati&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Majuro&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;20000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Apia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;30000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Port Vila&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;50000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Vanuatu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ethnic_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific Peoples&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#----------------draw bar chart--------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nz2018&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbind&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aus2021&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbind&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;other&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;total&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ungroup&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;desc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;total&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;slice&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;24&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;.fun&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;case_when&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Zealand&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;France&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;USA&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Metropolitan SPC member&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Indonesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Non-SPC member&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pacific island SPC member&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;area_name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;stack&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_fill_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;darkgreen&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;brown&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Number of Pacific Islanders
(including Māori, Papuans and Hawaiians)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;The world&apos;s largest Pacific Islander cities&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Treat these estimates with some caution... corrections are welcomed!&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Source: Australia Census 2021, New Zealand Census 2018, Wikipedia and author estimates &quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;legend.position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for now. Coming up we have a look at how much of Pacific Islander populations are in the “home” country and how much elsewhere (e.g. New Zealand); some more on population profiles; remittances data; and a summary post where I’ll tie things together with the messaging I used in the actual talk.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/16/pacific-cities</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/16/pacific-cities</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Visualising income inequality social tables by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;I recently read Branko Milanovic’s 2023 book, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/194208539-visions-of-inequality&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Visions of Inequality: from the French Revolution to the Cold War&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt; and gave it five stars. The bulk of the book is an excellent critical look at the views of six major economic thinkers—Quesnay, Smith, Ricardo, Marx, Pareto and Kuznets—on economic inequality. Even though the first four of these (yes, even Marx) wrote little directly on inequality narrowly defined, their class-based approach to understanding the economy has critical implications for the subject.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;One of the things Milanovic does well is place each thinker in the context of economic inequality in the time they were writing—both as it was known to themselves, and as per our best modern estimates. There’s a &lt;em&gt;lot&lt;/em&gt; of data and tools available to us that were not there for contemporary commentators, but each of these thinkers did exceptionally well with the information they had, and has been chosen because they combine narrative, theory, and empirical work in a way that earns our respect and is still fruitful.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;After a chapter on the barren world of cold war economic inequality analysis, in his final chapter Milanovic identifies three factors that have made 21st century inequality studies take off. These are Piketty’s new, insightful and influential analysis on the implications of a rate of profit that is persistantly greater than economic growth;  new data, tools and concepts relating to ‘global inequality’; and new historical empirical work including the increasing volume and quality of ‘social tables’ setting out income and population by class.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I’m using this blog post to explore an alternative visualisation for these social tables.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;france-in-the-time-of-quesnay&quot;&gt;France in the time of Quesnay&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Milanovic makes good use of charts like (but not exactly like) this one, and anyone wondering what a social table is can think about them as just the tabular version of the data on income and population by class shown here:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-quesnay-bar.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-quesnay-bar.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I’ve added the colour for the two different axes—I think this is super-helpful for dual axes plots to work, as &lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2016/08/18/dualaxes&quot;&gt;I’ve written about in 2016&lt;/a&gt;, but obviously impossible in a grayscale publication—and used data-specific vertical axis labels rather than regular gridlines, in a nod to the sort of style Tufte might like. But otherwise this is pretty much the plot format used by Milanovic.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The estimates here are actually those of Quesnay himself, in Mirabeau’s &lt;em&gt;La philosphie rurale&lt;/em&gt;, the physiocrat masterwork which really set out to be the definitive book of the French economy. Quesnay himself has a fair claim to being the world’s first modern economist. Some of his categories look a little odd to us, such as the very French category just for self-employed viticulturalists; the non-existence of capitalists other than tenant farmers; or perhaps most importantly, wrapping all the first and second “estates” (clergy and aristocrats) into one category along with their administrative support. This last has the effect of hiding some pretty material income disparities.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This plot type is ok but I definitely found a bit difficult to absorb. I found myself looking class by class at the numbers and effectively converting them to a table in my head, usually a sign that we’re not using the power of data visualisation to its best.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I thought the obvious alternative is a scatter plot so I drew this one:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-quesnay-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-quesnay-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Again, I’ve used data-specific labels on the axes—this only works when you’ve only got a small number of data points. I’ve reduced a lot of clutter (gridlines, etc.) and made the points’ labels a bit of a background colour relative to the points themselves. But it’s a pretty straightforward plot altogether. I think it will work for many audiences, and I like it.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code to create the data (such a small number of points it’s ok to just hard-key it into an R script) and draw that first bar and line plot. It’s a bit complex because of the micro control I’m taking over things like where the breaks and labels go on the axes and the colours of the axes. But it’s all well within a regular approach to &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;ggplot2&lt;/code&gt; graphics, helped out just with &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;ggtext&lt;/code&gt; to get italics for the references in the subtitle and caption.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#==================setup==================&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggtext&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggrepel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# some general graphics parameters:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;blue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme_set&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme_minimal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;base_family&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Roboto&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_markdown&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_markdown&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_markdown&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;family&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Sarala&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#==============Quesnay France 1763=====================&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;48&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Workers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Agricultural labourers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;22&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Workers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Manufacturing low-skill workers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Self-employed&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Self-employed in viticulture&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Self-empoyed&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Artisans and crafsmen in manufacturing&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Capitalists&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tenant farmers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;12&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;The Elite&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Landlords, clergy, government administrators&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;France&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;1763&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;factor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;levels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unique&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;25&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;factor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;levels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_ratio&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_ratio&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stopifnot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#-------------dual axis bar and line chart-----------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# as per Milanovic&apos;s style&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# we want the &apos;gridlines&apos; to be coloured, match the values, and behind the columns:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_hline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yintercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_hline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yintercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# columns for population:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# lines and points for income:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# annotated labels, also colour coded:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Relative income (right axis)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Population share (left axis)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# two different sets of labels for the different variables:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sec.axis&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dup_axis&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_prop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;1.0&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Income relative to the mean (1.0)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of poulation&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Contemporary understanding of income inequality in France in the time of Louis XV&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Class-based income distribution in *La philosophie rurale* by Mirabeau and Quesnay, 1763. Gini estimated to be between 49 and 55.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Quesnay&apos;s original estimates, reproduced in Table 1.1 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*, and plot style adapted from Milanovic&apos;s.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line.y.right&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line.y.left&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.title.y.left&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.title.y.right&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.y.left&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.y.right&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inc_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;As an aside, relating to why I don’t use a large language model to help me write code for my blog: this sort of code is exactly the situation where I like writing code, not trying to explain in natural language to a computer what I want doing. I feel the &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;ggplot2&lt;/code&gt; syntax is exactly the right combination of precision, concision and legibility. Anything I said in English that was as precise about what I wanted to do would take longer to write (and definitely to polish) than the R code.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Next up is the code for the scatter plot version. This is a bit shorter, mostly because we are using the same data and setup as the last chart, but partly because there’s less fiddly customisation needed as I’m not having to specify the dual axis complications of the bar/line chart.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#---------------scatter plot--------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class_detail&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_hline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yintercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;30&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Average income&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;50&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Income relative to the mean&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of population&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Contemporary understanding of income inequality in France in the time of Louis XV&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Class-based income distribution in *La philosophie rurale* by Mirabeau and Quesnay, 1763. Gini estimated to be between 49 and 55.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Quesnay&apos;s original estimates, reproduced in Table 1.1 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;england-and-wales-in-the-time-of-adam-smith&quot;&gt;England and Wales in the time of Adam Smith&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second economist Milanovic considers in his book in chronological order is of course Adam Smith himself. Here we move to our contemporary (21st century) understanding of income inequality and make use of social tables reconstructed by Robert Allen from contemporary sources. Here’s my scatter plot version of some of the data used by Milanovic:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-smith-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-smith-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There’s white space at the top as a result of giving the vertical axis the same scale as the plot from the time of Ricardo (see a bit later in this post).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A thing that leaps out of course is the high income of England and Wales’ aristocratic landowners at the time relative to other groups, and the way the other groups are compressed vertically as a result. Sometimes we would use a logarithmic transform of the income variable to show the variation. This would give us a plot like this one:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-smith-scatter-log.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-smith-scatter-log.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;But I don’t much like this for our purpose. After all we are reading a book about inequality. I think the original scale is better, and the way the landed aristocracy sit up at the top by themselves is the point!&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code for those two charts (and a full reference to Allen’s publication with the original social table in it):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#==============Adam Smith&apos;s time 1759==========&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Allen, Robert C. “Class Structure and Inequality during the Industrial&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Revolution: Lessons from England’s Social Tables, 1688-1867.” The Economic&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# History Review 72, no. 1 (2019): 88–125.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#page 105 of Allen for % ofpopulation but I am using Milanovic&apos;s labels from his Figure 2.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# page 106 for income in pounds&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;452.78&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Landed aristocracy&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;145.37&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Capitalists&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;27.17&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Shop owners&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;18.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;21.57&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Peasants&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;56.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;13.58&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Workers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3.62&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Paupers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1759&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# original scale:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;800&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Income in pounds&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of population&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Modern understanding of income inequality in England and Wales in 1759&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Average income by earner in pounds per year, as estimated in 2019. Gini index between 45 and 51.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Robert Allen, “Class Structure and Inequality during the Industrial
Revolution: Lessons from England’s Social Tables, 1688-1867.”&amp;lt;br&amp;gt;*The Economic
History Review 72*, no. 1 (2019): 88–125, reproduced in Figure 2.1 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# log scale:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;800&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Income in pounds (log scale)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of population&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Modern understanding of income inequality in England and Wales in 1759&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Average income by earner in pounds per year, as estimated in 2019. Gini index between 45 and 51.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Robert Allen, “Class Structure and Inequality during the Industrial
Revolution: Lessons from England’s Social Tables, 1688-1867.”&amp;lt;br&amp;gt;*The Economic
History Review 72*, no. 1 (2019): 88–125, reproduced in Figure 2.1 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;england-and-wales-in-the-time-of-david-ricardo&quot;&gt;England and Wales in the time of David Ricardo&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We’re on a familiar routine now. Of course, the next economist is David Ricardo. By the time he was at his peak, incomes had (for some) risen with the beginnings of the industrial revolution, and England was going through the existential traumas of the revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. Inequality, in the form of modern estimates of the Gini index, had grown.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s my plot of the social table from 1801. Note that we have the same vertical axis scale (although different labels, of course) as the preceding chart from 1759 (not the log scale one, but the first 1759 chart shown above):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-ricardo-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-ricardo-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Shop-owners and capitalists had made significant income gains in England by this point, doubtless to Napoleon’s chagrin.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h1 id=&quot;france-in-the-time-of-marx&quot;&gt;France in the time of Marx&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The final plot I’ll show is of the social table for France in 1831, early in the productive life of Karl Marx. Income is back to relative terms, and the class categories are becoming another step more ‘modern’.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-marx-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-marx-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code for the last two charts, from the time of Ricardo and Marx:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------------time of ricardo-------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;756&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Landed aristocracy&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;525&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Capitalists&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Shop owners&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;49&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Peasants&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;61.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;23&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Workers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;14.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Paupers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1801&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;population&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;800&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Income in pounds&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of population&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Modern understanding of income inequality in England and Wales in 1801&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Average income by earner in pounds per year, as estimated in 2019. Gini index of around 52.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Robert Allen, *Revising England’s Social Tables Once Again* 2016, reproduced in Table 3.1 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;svg_png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;..https://freerangestats.info/img/0311-ricardo-scatter&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;h&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#-----------------------1831 France--------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# From Milanovic&apos;s Marx chapter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;employment&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Employers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Large farmers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;High-level civil servants&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;13.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Blue-collar employees&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;White collar employees&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;13.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Self-employed&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Low-level civil servants&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;31.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Small farmers&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;28.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Agricultural workers and servants&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1831&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;



&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;employment&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;employment&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;income&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;class&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_hline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yintercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;brx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;35&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bry&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Relative income (average = 1.0)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Percentage of employed persons&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Modern understanding of income inequality in France in 1831&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Average income by earner relative to overall mean.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Christian Morrison, and Wayne Snyder. “The Income Inequality of France in Historical Perspective.” 
       &amp;lt;br&amp;gt;*European Review of Economic History* 4, no. 1 (2000): 59–83.
, reproduced in Table 4.4 of Milanovic&apos;s *Visions of Inequality*.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey80&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for today. Really, this was just a blog post about scatter plots!&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/08/social-table-visualisations</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/02/08/social-table-visualisations</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>New Caledonia&apos;s nickel exports by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;Just a brief blog post that effectively is jotting down some thoughts and sources on New Caledonian nickel exports.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This post was motivated by my (still incomplete) reading of this 2017 book on &lt;a href=&quot;https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/series/asia-pacific-environment-monographs/large-scale-mines-and-local-level-politics&quot;&gt;Large scale mines and local level politics—between New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea&lt;/a&gt;, edited by Colin Filer and Pierre-Yves Le Meur. It’s fascinating, although obviously a bit dated now.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;At the time of writing of that book, the depiction of nickel mining in New Caledonia was more optimistic, both in pure economic terms and as an instrument of reconciliation and Kanak independence, than would be the case today in 2025. Without going into all the details, several mines have been mothballed or shut down in recent years. An already shaky economic trend was exacerbated by the 2024 New Caledonia civil unrest. I wanted to do a quick check “is any nickel being exported at all? how much is it worth?”—and hence had a quick look at the data.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;exports-by-value&quot;&gt;Exports by value&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;My main data source for this is New Caledonia’s ISEE (Institute de la statistique et des études économiques Nouvelle-Calédonie), which maintains &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.isee.nc/economie-entreprises/entreprises-secteurs-d-activites/secteur-du-nickel&quot;&gt;a page on nickel in the economy&lt;/a&gt;. This looks like a 2019 page, but the data downloads in Excel format at the bottom are being updated monthly and are current right up to October 2025.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;New Caledonia exports both ore and processed metal—there’s quite a story behind this—and the export markets differ somewhat. For example Australia used to import ore but the processing plant in Queensland that was taking it was closed down. Here is the data on ore exports, by value and disaggregating by destination:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-ore.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-ore.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;… and here is the comparable data on processed metal:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-metals.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-metals.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The next chart shows them both, now paying no attention to destination:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-both.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-both.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;None of these charts are adjusted for inflation. Putting that aside, what we see in recent years from all of these of course is pretty obvious—a big increase in exports by value in 2021 and 2022, decline in 2023 and collapse in 2024 and 2025.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code to download this data from the ISEE website and draw those charts:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;readxl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fredr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Nickel sector info from ISEE available at&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# https://www.isee.nc/economie-entreprises/entreprises-secteurs-d-activites/secteur-du-nickel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;download.file&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://www.isee.nc/component/phocadownload/category/147-consultez-les-donnees-historiques?download=676:les-exportations-de-nickel&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destfile&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;nc-nickel-exports.xls&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mode&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;wb&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------------minerai---------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ore&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_excel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;nc-nickel-exports.xls&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sheet&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Minerai mensuel&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;range&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;A29:HG32&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;col_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;destination&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.character&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seq.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;from&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2008-01-15&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;to&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2025-10-20&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;month&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destination&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;format&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;%b %Y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Ore&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;levels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ore&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;grepl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Oct&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ore&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destination&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_discrete&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;XPF (m)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Destination:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nickel ore exports from New Caledonia, 2008-2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------------------metallurgie------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;metal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_excel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;nc-nickel-exports.xls&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sheet&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Métallurgie mensuel&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;range&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;A134:HG138&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;col_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;destination&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.character&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seq.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;from&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2008-01-15&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;to&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2025-10-20&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;month&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destination&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;format&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;%b %Y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Processed metal&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;metal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destination&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_discrete&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;XPF (m)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Destination:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nickel metal exports from New Caledonia, 2008-2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

       
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#----------------------combined------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;both&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbind&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;metal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ore&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;na.rm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;both&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.major.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_discrete&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;XPF (m)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Type of export:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nickel exports from New Caledonia 2008-2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;seasonality&quot;&gt;Seasonality&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I was interested in some of the variability in these patterns, and turned the total value of these exports into a single time series. I decomposed this into trend, seasonal and random components and was interested to see that there is in fact a noticeable seasonal component:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-decomposed.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-decomposed.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The low months in the seasonal pattern tend to be January, February, and sometimes April. This is plausibly related to the heavier rain in those months making production and transport a bit more difficult. But this is just me guessing, I am open to information on what else might be driving this seasonality.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code for that time series decomposition:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nickel_ts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;both&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;datem&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pull&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;frequency&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;12&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;start&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2008&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;par&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bty&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;l&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nickel_ts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;s.window&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;main&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nickel exports (ore + metals, in millions of XPF) from New Caledonia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;causes&quot;&gt;Causes&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Why have New Caledonia nickel exports collapsed so much? I’m not an expert on this but think that it’s largely driven by global nickel prices; with a secondary factor being difficulties specific to New Caledonia (local area politics such as those that are the subject of the book I started this post with a link to; security particularly since the 2024 civil unrest but actually dating earlier; and high labour costs).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I won’t go into those New Caledonia-specific reasons here. But here’s the world prices, showing an obvious rise from 2016 to a spike in 2022 and a quick collapse from 2023 to 2025:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-nickel-prices.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0310-nickel-prices.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The structural increase in price was associated with the demand for nickel in batteries, including in electric vehicles. The 2022 spike came about from a genuine squeeze in supply when Russia invaded Ukraine, and fear about Russian nickel going off the market. Prices then fell because of Indonesian supply coming on line, and the rise of nickel-free electric vehicle batteries.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;When prices go down, of course the value of exports goes down even if volumes stay the same. But when the price is going down because of more competititon, volume goes down as well. And the impact can be strong enough to lead whole mines to close (as has been the case in New Caledonia).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Code for the world nickel prices data, which comes from the USA Federal Reserve data system (FRED):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#------------------nickel prices---&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fredr_set_key&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Sys.getenv&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;FRED_API_KEY&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# assumes was previously set with Sys.setenv(FRED_API_KEY = &quot;XXXXXX&quot;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nickel_prices&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fredr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;series_id&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;PNICKUSDM&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;observation_start&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;2008-01-01&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;observation_end&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Sys.Date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# or a chosen end date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nickel_prices&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;date&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;brown&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;dollar&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;US dollars (m)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;World nickel prices&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;(Not adjusted for inflation)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for today. There’s a lot more to this nickel story and how critical it is for New Caledonia, but I don’t have time to go into it today and probably I’m not the right person to do it anyway.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Happy new year!&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01/01/new-caledonia-nickel</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01/01/new-caledonia-nickel</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Net migration in Pacific island countries by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;This is the second in my series of posts about population, migration, diaspora and related issues in the Pacific. See the &lt;a href=&quot;/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population&quot;&gt;first post in the series&lt;/a&gt; for more background. Today I’m looking at two charts relating to net migration and its role in Pacific islands’ population growth. These were used early in the presentation that these blog posts refer to, as part of building the story of the importance of people movements in understanding the Pacific.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;These two plots are pretty straightforward. The data comes from the UN’s 2024 population prospects, a data source I’ve used in several blog posts before. The particular dataset we want is the “standard indicators”—these include net migration, natural change (ie births minus deaths), and total population for each year from 1950 to 2050; which is what we’re looking for for the charts today.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;First downloading and wrangling the data. Pretty simple:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# draws charts of migration and natural change impact on growth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# The source for this is UN population projections. Some details&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# on net migration aren&apos;t in the PDH.stat so we get them from&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the UN website.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Peter Ellis November 2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;readxl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#-------------Download and get ready the data---------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;df2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pp24_standard.xlsx&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;if&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;file.exists&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;df2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unlink&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;df2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;download.file&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;destfile&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;df2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mode&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;wb&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;un_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;read_excel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;df2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;skip&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;16&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Caledonia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papua New Guinea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Solomon Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                                             
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Guam&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Kiribati&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia (Fed. States of)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nauru&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Vanuatu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Northern Mariana Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Palau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;American Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Cook Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;French Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tonga&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tuvalu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Wallis and Futuna Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# check all PICTs spelled correctly and in data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stopifnot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;all&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;un_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Region, subregion, country or area *`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;un_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Region, subregion, country or area *`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;picts&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nnm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Net Number of Migrants (thousands)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nmr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Net Migration Rate (per 1,000 population)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Natural Change, Births minus Deaths (thousands)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Population Change (thousands)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop1july&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Total Population, as of 1 July (thousands)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;States of&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;States&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;abs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nmr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;migration_direction&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nmr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In fact, this data ‘wrangling’ isn’t much more than filtering the data to the Pacific island countries and territories we want; relabelling some columns for ease of use; and a bit of fiddling with names for appearance’s sake in the coming graphs.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the first graph I wanted. This is just the net migration as a line, but to make it more visually striking I’ve filled in the space between the line and the net-zero horizontal axis, and colour-coded that fill with red for negative, blue for positive.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0309-all-picts-net-migration.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0309-all-picts-net-migration.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The key substantive point from this chart is the dominance of the red—negative net migration for the Pacific, most of the time, most countries. There are interesting stories in the blue episodes. Some are probably data problems that might be changed later, others are related to periods of immigration relating to construction projects. Going into each country or territory’s particular story here is beyond the scope of my talk or the blog, but the plot is a great start for anyone wanting to embark on that.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Controlling the fill like this was a little fiddly, and as you may have spotted in the previous chunk of code, required me to make a &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;migration_direction&lt;/code&gt; variable. In the chunk below, this variable gets mapped to the fill aesthetic of the ribbon geom.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I experimented with alternative ways of filling the ribbon, including a continuous variable (so eg darker blue for more positive, darker red for more negative) but they weren’t as visually effective as the single red-blue contrast.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code to draw that plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nmr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ncol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;fixed&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linewidth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_ribbon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nmr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;migration_direction&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma_format&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_fill_gradient2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;low&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;high&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;blue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Net migration impact on Pacific island countries and territories&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Countries shown in sequence of least proportionately impacted to most&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Net migration per thousand population in residence&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;legend.position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;none&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The second plot uses the same data in a different presentation. Because it’s a bit more cluttered, I picked just six countries or territories to show:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0309-six-picts-natural-immmigration-line.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0309-six-picts-natural-immmigration-line.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The solid blue line is the total population growth. The dashed green line is the ‘natural’ growth ie births minus deaths. The dotted red line is the net migration we were just looking at. You can think of the red line as dragging down  (or very occasionally, up) the green line to get you the solid blue line as the sum of the two. Or you can imagine, if there were no red line at all, the green line would be the total population growth.  This was a nice talking point and I think complements the first chart nicely.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It’s a pretty dramatic story when you think of the green dashed line being dragged down to the blue line by migration! Look at Niue, Marshall Islands or Samoa (migration hugely important) compared to Kiribati or Papua New Guinea (not so much).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The important design choice is to use a solid line for the overall total, and dashed and dotted lines for the two components of it. I think this makes it easier to follow, ie making the total the eye-catchingly solid line. A few secondary things to note: another reason to use dashes and dots in addition to the red and green contrast is because of the relatively high frequency of red-green colourblind people; and I also carefully make sure the legend shows the natural increase, total population, net migration in the same vertical sequence as they appear in the plots.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code for this simple chart:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;selected&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Kiribati&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Northern Mariana Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papua New Guinea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict_indicators&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;selected&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Net migration gain/loss`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nnm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Natural increase`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Total increase`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_relevel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Net migration gain/loss&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;after&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ncol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_hline&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yintercept&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;darkgreen&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;blue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_linetype_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Annual change in population (thousands)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for now! Coming up in subsequent posts—diaspora, the world’s largest Pacific cities, and remittances.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/12/04/pacific-net-migration</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/12/04/pacific-net-migration</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Visual summaries of population in Pacific islands by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;This will be the first of several posts where I post some code and visualisations of population issues in the Pacific. The analysis and visualisations are pretty simple. Between them, they’ll show how to make (with publicly available data) all the statistical images used in a presentation I recently gave in Wellington on &lt;a href=&quot;https://spccfpstore1.blob.core.windows.net/digitallibrary-docs/files/6a/6ad1c5b68b49b1462b9eb172a056c46c.pdf?sv=2015-12-11&amp;amp;sr=b&amp;amp;sig=TNWwFi4l8um7rBJavVHx41%2BhJvT5AI4PQ7OvWAoP1e0%3D&amp;amp;se=2026-05-27T18%3A44%3A49Z&amp;amp;sp=r&amp;amp;rscc=public%2C%20max-age%3D864000%2C%20max-stale%3D86400&amp;amp;rsct=application%2Fpdf&amp;amp;rscd=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22HOPS7_Opening_Day_Seminar_Pacific_priorities_and_change___Population_mobility_priorities_and_trends.pdf%22&quot;&gt;migration and mobility in the Pacific&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This was for a side event before the Pacific “Heads of Planning and Statistics” meeting, which takes place every two years and is the biggest event my team at the Pacific Community (SPC) organises. &lt;a href=&quot;https://sdd.spc.int/events/2025/11/7th-regional-conference-heads-planning-and-statistics-hops-7&quot;&gt;All the papers and presentations considered the meeting are available online&lt;/a&gt;, which is definitely transparency in action.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It was fun at this side event to have the chance for once to talk about the substantive issues the data shows, rather than (as is the usual focus of my meetings) how to improve the data, improve its use, and generally strategise and prioritise to improve statistics. These things are important and (arguably) fun too, but it’s nice to put them aside and talk about some actual development issues now and then. My talk was followed by a great panel discussion with speakers from academia, a UN organisation, Stats NZ and a Pacific island national planner.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Today’s post is pretty straightforward and is just about producing two statistical charts (one of them with both a “bare” and a “highlighted” version), setting the scene for population in the Pacific.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h3 id=&quot;downloading-data&quot;&gt;Downloading data&lt;/h3&gt;

&lt;p&gt;First, I download and tidy up the data. Everything I need for these charts is already in the Pacific Data Hub, making this pretty straightforward. The thing that takes a bit of fiddling is converting the country codes to user-friendly country names; and classifying each country into one of Melanesia, Polynesia or Micronesia.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# This script produces a couple of general use plots on population growth in the Pacific&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for use in presentations on data issues&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rsdmx&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;janitor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISOcodes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spcstyle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;extrafont&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Cairo&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggrepel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# general use caption and font:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Source: UN World Population Prospects, via the Pacific Data Hub&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_font&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Roboto&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Download all the mid year population estimates from PDH.stat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;readSDMX&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;https://stats-sdmx-disseminate.pacificdata.org/rest/data/SPC,DF_POP_PROJ,3.0/A.AS+CK+FJ+PF+GU+KI+MH+FM+NR+NC+NU+MP+PW+PG+PN+WS+SB+TK+TO+TV+VU+WF+_T+MEL+MIC+POL+_TXPNG+MELXPNG.MIDYEARPOPEST._T._T?startPeriod=1950&amp;amp;endPeriod=2050&amp;amp;dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as_tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;clean_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;as.numeric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Some subregional classifications.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papua New Guinea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Solomon Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Vanuatu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Caledonia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tonga&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Cook Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tuvalu&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;American Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pitcairn&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Wallis and Futuna&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;French Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# lookup table with country codes, names, and which subregion they are in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Alpha_2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;_T&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;All PICTs&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;MEL&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;_TXPNG&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total excluding PNG&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;POL&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;MIC&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;bind_rows&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ISO_3166_1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Alpha_2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geo_pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Alpha_2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;Name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;case_when&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;grepl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;^_T&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geo_pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Dataset that combines the original PDH.stat data with the country names and regional classifications&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;era&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Past&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Future&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;inner_join&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict_names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;geo_pict&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gsub&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Federated States of&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fed. States&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Order country names from smallest to largest population in 2050:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;.fun&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;last&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h3 id=&quot;line-plot&quot;&gt;Line plot&lt;/h3&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This puts us in a position to just draw our first plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-line.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-line.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It’s very intuitive, and I think a necessary introduction to all the countries and territories we’re talking about. When we first made a version of this plot I thought it would never be neat enough to use in a presentation, but in fact it works ok on a big conference screen, so long as we exclude (as I have) the various regional and sub-regional totals.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;All the hard work to produce this plot had been done earlier in the data management, so producing the plot is just a single chunk of code:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#----------------------time series line plot-------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# This version just has 21 individual PICTs, no subregional totals. 21 fits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# ok on the screen in 3 rows of 7:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# remove subregional and regional totals, so only actual countries&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;grepl&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ignore.case&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;All PICTs&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pitcairn&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;era&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ncol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;legend.position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;none&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;strip.text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;face&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s1&quot;&gt;&apos;plain&apos;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# force all y axes to go to zero (but because free_y in the facet_wrap call, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# they will be on different scales for readability):&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand_limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Population in the Pacific, 1950 to 2050&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Countries listed in sequence of projected population in 2050&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h3 id=&quot;scatter-plot&quot;&gt;Scatter plot&lt;/h3&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The line plot’s a nice introduction to population and most importantly, it’s easily understood. But unless people look carefully at the vertical axis labels it gives no sense of the absolute size of the different countries, and only a very rough visual sense of the differing growth rates.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In looking for a single image that would summarise two things I came up with this chart:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is something we’d prepared earlier well before this talk and not yet needed to use, but it was for exactly this sort of use case—a single slide summary of Pacific island countries and territories’ absolute size and growth rates.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It takes a little bit of explanation for, and concentration from, an audience—in particular, explaining why the negative growth area is shaded and what that means. The logarithmic scale for population size means people probably won’t realise just how overwhelmingly big Papua New Guinea is compared to the rest of the Pacific; to show that properly, we really need a different chart. But overall, this is straightforward enough for people to grasp.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What I like about this plot is that it makes clear the two broad categories of Pacific island countries and territories in population terms: relatively large (meaning &amp;gt;100,000 people!) and growing, which is all of Melanesia and a few others; and small and shrinking, comprising most of Polynesia and parts of Micronesia. Tonga, population estimated around 104,000, is the borderline case—all the countries larger than Tonga are growing in population terms; and nearly all those smaller than it are shrinking.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There’s two territories I dropped from this plot because the UN 2024 population projections, which is the data used, are materially out of date and I didn’t want to get side-tracked into explaining why in the talk. We’ll be able to include them in future versions of the pot hopefully soon.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Again, it was pretty simple to create the plot with the data we’ve already got. Here’s the R code to do that:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#----------------scatter plot comparing growth to totals---------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Summary data as one row per country for use in scatter plot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;obs_value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;time_period&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;cagr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;^&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;point_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;if_else&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;total_like&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;country&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# font type has to use identity scale, no scale to map it        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;font_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;point_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;total_like&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# couldnt&apos; get Melanesia in the right spot with ggrepel so have to make a specific adjustment for it:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjusted_x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.35&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# For a presentation used at HOPS7, I want&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 1) scatter plot but without the region and subregions, to avoid clutter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 2) as 1 but with the shared sovereign countries highlighted eg with a circle around them.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# I also excldued two countries that had conspicuously out-of-date data that I didn&apos;t&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# want visually prominent.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;point_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;country&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# two countries/territories have materially wrong estimates that&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# are distracting, better to just drop them from the chart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia, Fed. States&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2b&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;cagr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Draw a pale (transparent, alpha) background rectangle for the negative growth countries:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;rect&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xmin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;30&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xmax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Largish points for each country:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# labels for each country:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# geom_label_repel(aes(label = pict), seed = 7, family = the_font, size = 2.7, label.size = 0, fill = &quot;transparent&quot;) +&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjusted_x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fontface&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;font_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;family&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_font&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# For the smaller countries, use actual populations as the points for markers on the axis.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# For larger than 10,000, there are too many countries and it would be cluttered, so use 3, 10, 30, 100, etc.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;signif&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unique&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;12&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;23&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;25&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3e5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;percent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Use SPC colours for the four subregion types:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Readable x axis tick marks (at an angle); and not too many vertical gridlines:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# labels for the axes, plot title, legend:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Population in 2025 (logarithmic scale)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Compound annual population growth rate 2020 to 2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Current population and recent growth in the Pacific&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Populations of the Pacific Island country and territory members of the Pacific Community (SPC). 
&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There’s a few tricks used here, most important of which is probably the way I’ve used the exact population sizes as horizontal axis labels. This is something that works well with a small number of points, and which I learned from a Tufte book.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h3 id=&quot;scatter-plot-with-highlights&quot;&gt;Scatter plot with highlights&lt;/h3&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Finally for today, I wanted a version of the same plot that highlighted the countries that have easy mobility to a larger a richer country—that is, France (three territories), the USA (three territories and three self-governing countries), New Zealand (three members of the “Realm of New Zealand”) or the UK (Pitcairn). One of the themes of my talk was the way that in countries where people &lt;em&gt;can&lt;/em&gt; move, a certain number of them generally &lt;em&gt;do&lt;/em&gt;. This is a very politically and culturally sensitive point, and it’s not one I’m going to try to explore the reasons for here, but we can certainly note it as a dominant fact of importance for understanding the demographic dynamics of the Pacific. It’s one of two or three critical big picture points that explain many of the differences between Kiribati (very densely populated on Tarawa and relatively poor) and Marshall Islands (less obvious excessive population density, higher standard of living), for example.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;My plot with the highlights—which are just oversized point geoms using shape number 1, a hollow circle—shows this nicely I believe:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-scatter-highlighted.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0305-population-scatter-highlighted.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And here is the code for that plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;easy_mobility&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Pitcairn&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Niue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Tokelau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Cook Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Wallis and Futuna&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;New Caledonia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;French Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Guam&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Northern Mariana Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;American Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Palau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia, Fed. States&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# check all are in data apart from the two we deliberately dropped&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stopifnot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sum&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;easy_mobility&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;cagr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Draw a pale (transparent, alpha) background rectangle for the negative growth countries:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;rect&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xmin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;30&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xmax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Largish points for each country:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# labels for each country:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# geom_label_repel(aes(label = pict), seed = 7, family = the_font, size = 2.7, label.size = 0, fill = &quot;transparent&quot;) +&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_text_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjusted_x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fontface&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;font_type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;family&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_font&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# For the smaller countries, use actual populations as the points for markers on the axis.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# For larger than 10,000, there are too many countries and it would be cluttered, so use 3, 10, 30, 100, etc.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;easy_mobility&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;black&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;signif&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unique&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pop2025&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;12&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;23&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;25&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3e5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;percent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Use SPC colours for the four subregion types:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Polynesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Melanesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spc_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Total&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme_minimal&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;base_family&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_font&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Readable x axis tick marks (at an angle); and not too many vertical gridlines:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;axis.text.x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;angle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.grid.minor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_blank&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot.caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_text&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# labels for the axes, plot tile, legend:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Population in 2025 (logarithmic scale)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Compound annual population growth rate 2020 to 2025&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Current population and recent growth in the Pacific&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Populations of the Pacific Island country and territory members of the Pacific Community (SPC). 
Countries and territories with easy migration access to a larger country are highlighted.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;the_caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all for today. In subsequent blogs I’ll show how I drew the other charts in the original presentation, with net migration, diaspora sizes, Pacific Islander populations in various world cities, and remittances.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11/30/pacific-population</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Distribution of p-values under the null hypothesis for discrete data by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;h2 id=&quot;motivation&quot;&gt;Motivation&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A few months back in a side skirmish during the great p-curve controversy, &lt;a href=&quot;https://bsky.app/profile/rmcelreath.bsky.social/post/3lvx73m6jc22o&quot;&gt;Richard McElreath mentioned&lt;/a&gt; that p-values under the null hypothesis are not always uniformly distributed, as is sometimes claimed. This prompted me to check out the phenomenon. I’ll admit I had in my head the basic idea that p-values are indeed uniformly distributed if the null hypothesis is true. It turns out this is only ‘often’ the case, not always.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;As is commonly the case for this blog, the main motivation was to make sure I understood something myself, so there’s nothing particularly new for the world in this blog. But it might be interesting for some. There were a few odd fishhooks.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I wanted to check the case where we are comparing the number of “successes” in a relatively small sample of binary success/failure outcomes, split into two groups. The null hypothesis is that the underlying probability for success is the same in each group. I wanted to see the distribution of the p-value for a test of this null hypothesis with sample sizes of 10, 100 or 1000 observations in each group; for different values of the underlying probability of success, and for when the groups’ sample size is random but mean 100.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;calculating-the-p-value&quot;&gt;Calculating the p value&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The fishhooks were in how to calculate the p value. I actually went for three different ways:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;My lazy approximation way is to estimate the variance of the difference between the two sample proportions under the null hypothesis and rely on asymptotic normality to get a probability of the value being as extreme as it actually is. This has the disadvantage of being known to be not particularly right particularly when the sample is small or the probability of success is close to 1 or 0. The advantage is I didn’t need to look anything up and it was easy to vectorise. This method is called &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;pval_hand&lt;/code&gt; in the plot below.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;A better method is to use the &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher&apos;s_exact_test&quot;&gt;Fisher exact test&lt;/a&gt;, as per the famous lady-tasting-tea analysis, but the out of the box method I was using (from the &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;corpora&lt;/code&gt; R package by Stephanie Evert) doesn’t work when the observed successes in both samples is zero. This method is called &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/code&gt; in the plot below.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The most out-of-the-box method of all is to use the &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;prop.test()&lt;/code&gt; function from the &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;stats&lt;/code&gt; package built into R. The disadvantage here was the bother in vectorising this function to run efficiently with large numbers of simulations. This method is called &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;pval_proptest&lt;/code&gt; in the plot below.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Because I was nervous about whether these methods might give materially different results I started by comparing the results they gave, with different sample sizes and underlying parameters, with just 1,000 repetitions for each combination of sample size and parameter. This gives this comparison:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-pairs-1000.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-pairs-1000.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So we can see that the &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/code&gt; and &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;pval_proptest&lt;/code&gt; methods give effectively the same results, whereas my hand-made method has a significant number of discrepancies. Because of this I decided to stick with Evert’s &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;corpora::fisher.pval&lt;/code&gt;. I just hardened it up with a wrapper function to define the p value (chance of seeing data as extreme as this, if the null hypothesis is true) to be 1 if the observed successes are 0 in both samples:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corpora&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;GGally&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;frs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for svg_png()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;cd&quot;&gt;#&apos; Version of fisher.pval that won&apos;t break if k1 and k2 both 0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tough_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;set_both_zero&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;problems&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;problems&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;temp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corpora&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;::&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fisher.pval&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;k2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;temp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;problems&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;set_both_zero&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;return&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;temp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# note needed a decision on what to do when k1 and k2 are both zero. I think&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# p value is 1 here, as p is the &quot;probability of seeing data at least as extreme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# as this if the null hypothesis of no difference is true&quot;. Not sure why Fisher&apos;s&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# exact test returns an error, worth looking into that. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;h2 id=&quot;results&quot;&gt;Results&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So with that problem out of the way, I set out to calculate lots of p-values. I did this in the situations&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;where the two groups were equally sized with 10, 100, or 1,000 observations each; or where they are a random number of observations, mean 100, still the same for each of the two groups; and&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;with an underlying probability of success of 0.2, 0.5, or 0.8.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The intution for some of the reason of why the p-values aren’t uniformly distributed is that with a finite sample and a a discrete outcome, there are only a finite number of possible values for the p-value. So of course it can’t have a perfectly uniform distribution, which implies a p-value taking any value between 0 and 1 with equal probability. Further down we see (approximately) how many possible values the p-value takes. The smaller the sample sizes, the more we would expect to see divergence from normality.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And that is exactly what we do see. Here is the full distribution of p-values for 100,000 simulations of each combination:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-histogram-1e+05.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-histogram-1e+05.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;… and here is the distribution just of the p-values that are conventionally “significant” ie below 0.05:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-histogram-sig-only-1e+05.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0299-histogram-sig-only-1e+05.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I think there are a few interesting subtleties here. In particular:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;When the size of the two groups is a random variable (but still equal) then the distribution of p-values is much more uniform (but still not exactly uniform). Basically there are many more possibiliities for the p-values to take with this extra randomness.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The p-values are more non-uniform when the underlying probability for success is 0.5 in each case rather than 0.2 or 0.8&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The p-values can still be very non-uniform even with a large sample size of 1,000 observations per group (if underlying probability of success is close to 0.5)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s a potentialy interesting little insight into one of the reasons why this works that way - the &lt;em&gt;number&lt;/em&gt; of different unique p-values that we get for each combination of sample size and underlying probabilities:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;code&gt;  size_lab    `Prob=0.2` `Prob=0.5` `Prob=0.8`
  &amp;lt;chr&amp;gt;            &amp;lt;int&amp;gt;      &amp;lt;int&amp;gt;      &amp;lt;int&amp;gt;
1 n=10                32         38         31
2 n=100              391        533        403
3 n=1000            2915       3853       2903
4 n=Pois(100)       9812      12582       9898
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I’m not drawing any conclusions in any metascience debates here. Just noting this interesting phenomenon in the distribution of p-values.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the rest of the code for doing these simulations.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Takes about 30 seconds with 100,000 reps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;system.time&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;({&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;for&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;reps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1e3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1e5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;set.seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;42&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;rep&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;each&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;reps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;is.na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;n=Pois(100)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;n={size}&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Prob={prob}&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;is.na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rpois&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbinom&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbinom&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# observed proportions p1 and p2 from the two populations&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# under null hypothesis, the equal probability of both pops:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pmid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# observed difference of the two proportions:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;delt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;abs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# variance of each of p1 and p2: p(1-p)/n&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;s1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pmid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pmid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# standard deviation of the sum of two of those variances&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sddelt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;sqrt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;s1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;s1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# calculate p values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_hand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pnorm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;delt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sddelt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tough_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_proptest&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;if&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;reps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# when the number of reps is fairly small, I draw a pairs plot just to&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# compare the different ways of calculating p values:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - prop.test (out of the box R method). I couldn&apos;t find an easy way to vectorize this, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#   is why it is only done here, via a loop. when reps is small&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - pval_hand (my home made approximate method)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# - pval_fisher (Fisher exact test, but toughened up as above to give 1 when both k1 and k2 are 0)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# The main conclusion from this is that my by-hand aproximation isn&apos;t great!&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;system.time&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;({&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;for&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;i&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nrow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;i&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;i&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pval_proptest&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prop.test&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p.value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;})&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 5 seconds for reps=1000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_hand&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_proptest&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggpairs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;svg_png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;0299-pairs-{reps}&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;h&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;      
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_histogram&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Distribution of all p values when a null hypothesis is true&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Equal size binomial samples drawn from two populations with same underying probability&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;P value from Fisher&apos;s exact test
    (when zero positive cases in both samples, p value is set to one)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Count of simulations (out of {comma(reps)})&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.05&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;free_y&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_histogram&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Distribution of significant (&amp;lt;0.05) p values when a null hypothesis is true&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Equal size binomial samples drawn from two populations with same underying probability&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;P value from Fisher&apos;s exact test
  (when zero positive cases in both samples, p value is set to one)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Count of simulations (out of {comma(reps)})&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
      
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;svg_png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;0299-histogram-{reps}&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;h&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;svg_png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;glue&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;0299-histogram-sig-only-{reps}&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;h&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;      
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;})&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Number of unique p-values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;number_p_values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;length&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unique&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pval_fisher&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;spread&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;prob_lab&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;number_p_values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

</description>
				<pubDate>Sun, 09 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11/09/null-p-values</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11/09/null-p-values</guid>
			</item>
		
			<item>
				<title>Inequality and homicide, within-country and between country by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;So this is a blog post about making and finding an error in modelling strategy, in an apparently simple situation.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I saw &lt;a href=&quot;https://mastodon.sdf.org/@dlakelan/115055789165555934&quot;&gt;this post (toot?) on Mastodon&lt;/a&gt; from Daniel Lakens mentioning in passing that “On the other hand, the homicide rate across the world is well modeled as exp(k * income_gini_coefficient).” This struck me as worth checking; So I did! It turns out it is more or less correct.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here is a chart I drew of homicides per 100,000 population on the vertical axis versus income or consumption inequality on the horizontal. Consumption is the preferred way to measure poverty and inequality in poorer countries in particular, so in this data, which comes from the World Bank, it is used when available.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-scatter.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-scatter.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It’s not a big point, but the model implied by Professor Lakens would be a straight diagonal line, what you’d get if you just used &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;geom_smooth(method = lm, formula = y ~ x - 1)&lt;/code&gt;. I haven’t shown his, but two slightly more complex models.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code that downloads the data, fits those models and draws the chart. A few things to note:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;There’s a bit of fancy footwork to define which countries I label on the chart, and in the end also a few I chose manually and ad hoc because I was interested in them.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;While the y axis in this plot uses a logarithm transform, for the model itself I transformed the response variable not with a logarithm but with a BoxCox transformation that still works when countries have zero homicides in a particular year. I toyed with alternatives like using a generalized linear model with a log link (which still works when data is observed to be zero, because it will be predicted/expected to be slightly more) but decided to avoid this so I could use &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;lme&lt;/code&gt; which lets me specify autocorrelated error terms.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Because the model and plot are both a bit complex I set out my own prediction grid and calculate expected values and crude (ie assuming asymptotic normality) confidence intervals rather than using &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;marginaleffects&lt;/code&gt; package to get me something out of the box.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The ribbons drawn are showing the expected homicide rate for the country with random country effect closest to zero, which happens to be Czechia with the data at the time of writing (17 October 2025).&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The ribbons are also based on the assumption that the hypothetical country they refer to has an average inequality (over all years for which there are observations) as shown on the horizontal axis. This point is pretty crucial.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;WDI&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;nlme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;forecast&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for chosing box cox parameters&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;AICcmodavg&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for predictSE with lmer&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggrepel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;GGally&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Analysis to follow up this remark:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# https://mastodon.sdf.org/@dlakelan/115055789165555934&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# &quot;On the other hand, the homicide rate across the world &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#  is well modeled as exp(k * income_gini_coefficient).&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#--------Download World Bank data and prep it------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# These searches were used to find series with a lot of data for country-year combinations:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# WDIsearch(&quot;homicide&quot;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# WDIsearch(&quot;Gini&quot;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Metadata for SI.POV.GINI at https://data360files.worldbank.org/data360-data/metadata/WB_WDI/WB_WDI_SI_POV_GINI.pdf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Key points include:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# * individuals (not household)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# * adjusted for household size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# * can be income or consumption depending on what was available&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;WDI&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;indicator&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;SI.POV.GINI&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as_tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Countries we are going to want to highlight in our chart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;highlights&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;United States&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Russian Federation&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Samoa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Australia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;United Kingdom&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Fiji&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Mexico&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Papua New Guinea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# There are a few country-years with zero homicides so can&apos;t use a simple&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# logarithm transformation, but can have a Box-Cox that has a similar result&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Choose a lambda that gives a distribution after the transformation where&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# changes are relatively stable in absolute terms:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;forecast&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;::&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;BoxCox.lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# version of the data we will use for plotting and modelling:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;drop_na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Latest&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Earlier&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mean&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ungroup&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Latest&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;amp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;53&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;35&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;26&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.26&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;highlights&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;BoxCox&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as.factor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;year&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#------------Modelling and predictions (for drawing 95% confidence intervals on charts)----&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# you could have random slopes too but a fair number of countries have only one&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# or two observations&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# see https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2017.00058/full&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# for example which says you want at least 6 observations per group to have&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# a random slope. Not sure how many you need, but 1 isn&apos;t enough :)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Barchart of number of observations per country, used later in the blog post&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;count&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;n_obs&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;count&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n_obs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;n_countries&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n_obs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;n_countries&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_col&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Number of observations (ie years)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Number of countries&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Complete data for Gini coefficient and homicide rates&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# super simple model, not mentioned in the actual blog post&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Latest&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# multilevel model with a country random intercept, and inequality only at the lowest level&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;random&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;correlation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corAR1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# multilevel model with country random intercept and countries&apos; average inequality, as well&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# as the lowest level (country-year) granularity inequality:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;random&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;correlation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corAR1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Fairly high (and similar) coefficients, about 0.11, but for differ&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summary&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 0.12 for gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summary&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 0.11 for ctry_avg_gini; gini not significant&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Relatively low coefficients - the country randomness &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# soaks up a lot of the randomness:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summary&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# gini not significant&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Is the average random country effect basically zero? - check:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stopifnot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mean&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ranef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]]),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;stopifnot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mean&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ranef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]]),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Find the country with random effect closest to zero. Needed for predictions&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# to draw an average country ribbon on the chart, even though the country effect&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# is actually not taken into account in predictSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;avg_country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ranef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;abs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`(Intercept)`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;slice&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;row.names&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;20&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;20&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;65&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;avg_country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predict&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;newdata&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predictSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;newdata&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predictSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;newdata&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pse3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;across&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;InvBoxCox&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)}))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#------------------Draw chart--------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;purple&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;darkgreen&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;brown&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;pink&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xlim&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;18&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;70&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_shape_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;19&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;black&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Inequality (Gini coefficient), based on individual income or in some cases, consumption. Higher means more inequality.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Homicide rate (per 100,000)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Observation year:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Observation year:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Higher inequality countries have more homicides.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, series VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 and SI.POV.GINI. Analysis by freerangestats.info.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  
  
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# model2 - just country-year level data, country random effect&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_ribbon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#model3 - country-year but also country average data, country random effect&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_ribbon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_label_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;max.overlaps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey10&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label.size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;mm&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rgb&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.04&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# annotations - text and arrows - for models 2 and 3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;61.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;vjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
               &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Model with no such average country inequality effect.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;24&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;61.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;200&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;vjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
               &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Model including an effect for average inequality in each 
                                country over time.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;26&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;segment&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;64&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;64&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;length&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;mm&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;segment&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;64&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;64&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;75&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
            &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;length&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;mm&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Selected countries highlighted. 
Shaded ribbons show 95% confidence interval of mixed effects models with random country effect and autocorrelated error terms.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In fact at first I just had that green line—&lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt; in the code—which is pretty flat. I was naturally struck at how it doesn’t seem to go through the data points. At first I thought this was because I was so clever, and had incorporated a country level random effect, and allowed autocorrelation over time for the multiple observations of each country. That is, I thought I’d revealed some fundamental truth of a non-relationship where more naive modelling appeared to show a relationship.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;To extract that model—the one with the green line that’s conspicuously under the data—from the mess of code above, it’s &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt; and it looks like this:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;random&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;correlation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corAR1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This seemed like the really obvious thing to fit for me. Why not just some ordinary least squares thing? Because many of the countries have multiple observations, as we see in this plot (which was created in the code chunk we’ve already seen above):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-number-obs.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-number-obs.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I would say that the thing that is most often done in this situation is to filter the data down to just one observation per country—perhaps by taking the latest observation for each country, or the one that is closest to some year that is chosen precisely because most countries have an observation in that year or close to it.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That seemed like a sad waste of data to me (although in my code above you can see that I did fit such a model, &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model1&lt;/code&gt;, and if you want to look at it, it avoids the problem I’m about to talk about!). So my thinking was to use all the data in a mixed effects model, with a random intercept at the country level to allow for the fact that each new observation on a country, while definitely worth &lt;em&gt;something&lt;/em&gt;, isn’t worth as much as an independent observation because it’s going to be similar to the other observations for that country. To do this even better, as well as the country level random intercept I throw in an autocorrelation of the residuals, showing that the values in one year are expected to be correlated with those in the previous year (as indeed they turn out to be).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all well and good but in this case it backfired on me. When I first drew this plot, with only the green line of &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt; showing, I thought “Oh that’s cool, when we correct for the fact that many of these observations are low-value repeats of the same country’s previous observations, it turns out there’s very little relationship between inequality and homicide after all”. But more thinking, and looking at some residuals, and comparing it to the more positive results from the much simpler &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model1&lt;/code&gt;, quickly made me realise I was barking badly up the wrong tree.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The problem is best illustrated by this chart that I drew at some point along the way. I realised that as I have a random intercept that is different for each country, the expected value for that country from the model will vary very much by country. But then the modelling of homicide on inequality will start from that point—the model will be seeking to explain variance in homicide rates &lt;em&gt;in this particular&lt;/em&gt; country based on its observations.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-faceted.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-faceted.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;If we had a random slope as well, the result would look closer to the dark grey lines in these plots—a different relationship for each country. But I hadn’t done this, because I judged there just weren’t enough observations per country for a random slope (many countries in fact have a single observation—economic inequality is difficult and costly to measure, needing a special household consumption survey if possible). So my models look more like the pale red ribbon shown here:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What’s happening is that we have two things going on:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Inequality &lt;em&gt;between&lt;/em&gt; countries does quite a good job of explaining differences in homicide rates.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;&lt;em&gt;Within&lt;/em&gt; each country that has observations over multiple years, there is much less relationship between the two variables; and where there is a relationship, it differs country by country. For example, judging by the the black dot representing the most recent point, Australia and the United States look to have gotten more unequal over time but less homicides; Mexico has gotten less unequal and more homicides; whereas Russia, Ukraine and the UK have had decreases in both inequality and homicides. In other words, for Russia, Ukraine and the UK, the within-country data matches the between-country positive rleationship between inequality and homicide, but Australia, USA and Mexico have a negative relationship between the two variables.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Another way of looking at this is to say that the random country intercept absorbs the variance in homicide that could be instead explained by that country’s enduring average inequality. But we don’t have “enduring, average inequality” as a variable in model2. If we calculate a proxy for that the obvious way (average of the inequality values we have for that country, disregarding the fact that they come from different years for each country), we can look at the relationship between this “enduring inequality” and the country intercepts in &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt;, and we see a strong positive relationship. That’s the middle left panel (a scatter plot) in the chart below, as well as the middle top correlation (0.608, well different from zero).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-country-level-ranef.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-country-level-ranef.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The other variable in that scatter plot matrix is the country effects from &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/code&gt;, which has been specified like this:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hom_tran&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;random&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;correlation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;corAR1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The difference from &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt; is that now we have &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/code&gt; there as our estimate of enduring average country inequality. We still have &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/code&gt;, which is the value of inequality that varies for this country year by year. That will pick up the average within-country effect.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In the scatterplot matrix above we can see that once we include each country’s average inequality in the model, there is no relationship between that variable and the country level random effects. This is to be expected, precisely because the model fitting process is designed to achieve this.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the summary results for &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/code&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;code&gt;&amp;gt; summary(model3)
Linear mixed-effects model fit by REML
  Data: d2 
       AIC      BIC   logLik
  2542.301 2574.914 -1265.15

Random effects:
 Formula: ~1 | country
        (Intercept)  Residual
StdDev:   0.8371227 0.7065144

Correlation Structure: AR(1)
 Formula: ~1 | country 
 Parameter estimate(s):
      Phi 
0.7574314 
Fixed effects:  hom_tran ~ gini + ctry_avg_gini 
                  Value Std.Error   DF   t-value p-value
(Intercept)   -3.193199 0.3950271 1554 -8.083494  0.0000
gini           0.007850 0.0056463 1554  1.390213  0.1647
ctry_avg_gini  0.113641 0.0117143  141  9.701081  0.0000
 Correlation: 
              (Intr) gini  
gini           0.001       
ctry_avg_gini -0.858 -0.482

Standardized Within-Group Residuals:
         Min           Q1          Med           Q3          Max 
-11.47176745  -0.44184320  -0.04595294   0.42362704   3.06647091 

Number of Observations: 1698
Number of Groups: 143 

&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p&gt;We see the strong effect of average country-level inequality effect, and no significant evidence of an effect of inequality within countries. Interesting! But beyond my scope today to go into that.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Finally I want to finish off with a clean plot of my best model and the phenomenon under question—the strong empirical relationship between economic inequality in a country and the homicide rate.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-scatter-final.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-scatter-final.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code for that final clean plot:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2b&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#model3 - country-year but also country average data, country random effect&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_ribbon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_label_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;max.overlaps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;Inf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey10&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label.size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;unit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;mm&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rgb&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.04&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p2b&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Note that this builds on the object &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;p2&lt;/code&gt; that was the basis of the first plot, the one showing both &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/code&gt; and &lt;code class=&quot;language-plaintext highlighter-rouge&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/code&gt;, to avoid repetition.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And here’s the code for the playing around with residuals at different levels and drawing that facet plot version with 12 selected countries:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#---------------residuals from model2 and model3---------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Individual level residuals - plot not used in blog&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Residuals from Model 2`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;residuals&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Residuals from Model 3`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;residuals&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Residuals from Model 2`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Residuals from Model 3`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gather&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;value&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;variable&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Inequality&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Residuals (on Box-Cox transformed scale)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Residuals from two mixed-effects models of homicide&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Residuals at the most granular level ie year-country are uncorrelated with inequality&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;svg_png&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;..https://freerangestats.info/img/0303-residuals&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;h&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# out of curiousity what are those low outlier residuals? - Iceland and Malta&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;residuals&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;round&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;sort&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;residuals&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Country level effects plot - pairs plot used in blog&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;distinct&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Country effects in Model 2`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ranef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Country effects in Model 3`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ranef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)[[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;select&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rename&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;`Countries&apos; average inequality`&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggpairs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Comparison of country-level random effects in two models&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Model 3 has a fixed effect for countries&apos; average inequality; Model 2 doesn&apos;t.
The country-level residuals are correlated with this variable in Model 2, but not Model 3.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
 
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;#---------------further illustrations - facets----------------------&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;highlights&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;South Africa&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;France&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Japan&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Ukraine&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;r&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;coef&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;])&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;r&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;replace_na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;r&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_reorder&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;r&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fct_drop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;())&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;arrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;distinct&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ctry_avg_gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;expand_grid&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;20&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;70&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Note that predictSE excludes random country effect....&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predictSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;newdata&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predictSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;model3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;newdata&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;


&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1.96&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;more_preds3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se.fit&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;across&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;predicted2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;k&quot;&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;){&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;InvBoxCox&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lambda&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)}))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;



&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;factor&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;levels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;levels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;d3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;drop_na&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;gini&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;homicide&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_y_log10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;comma&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;limits&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xlim&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;18&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;70&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_shape_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;19&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;steelblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;black&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_ribbon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pred_grid2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymin&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lower3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ymax&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;upper3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;NA&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mod_cols&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_smooth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;method&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lm&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;se&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;FALSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey50&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fullrange&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linewidth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;facet_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;country&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ncol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Inequality (Gini coefficient), based on individual income or in some cases, consumption. Higher means more inequality.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Homicide rate (per 100,000)&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Observation year:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Observation year:&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Higher inequality countries have more homicides.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;But for any given country, the relationship over time may well be the reverse.
Pale ribbons show a model&apos;s confidence interval for homicide for a country&apos;s average over time level of inequality.
Dark line shows simple model fit to just this country&apos;s data.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;caption&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, series VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 and SI.POV.GINI. Analysis by freerangestats.info.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;print&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;p5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The full set of code, in sequence, can be &lt;a href=&quot;https://github.com/ellisp/blog-source/blob/master/_working/0303-homicide-inequality.R&quot;&gt;found on GitHub&lt;/a&gt; if the above presentaiton is confusing.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Sat, 18 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10/18/homicide-and-gini</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10/18/homicide-and-gini</guid>
			</item>
		
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				<title>Mapping locations related to the Amelia Earhart disappearance by @ellis2013nz</title>
					<description>&lt;p&gt;The 1937 disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan was briefly in the news in the last week or so. A campaign, apparently based in the Northern Marianas, to release any papers held by the US government found a willing ear in the current US administration.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I don’t think any of those papers have yet been released, and there is very little chance they have any new information if/when they are. But it did remind me I had long meant to look up the actual key locations involved.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The expectation/hope of &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/574440/trump-to-declassify-amelia-earhart-records-potentially-closing-nearly-90-year-old-mystery&quot;&gt;those involved in pushing for a release of papers&lt;/a&gt; is that they will show Earhart and Noonan ended up in the &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Seas_Mandate&quot;&gt;Japanese South Seas Mandate&lt;/a&gt;, ultimately in Saipan (in the Northern Mariana Islands, now a US territory), and were executed as some local oral traditions claim.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Why do I think there will be no new information? Consider what would be needed for the US to hold papers casting light on this:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ol&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;Earhart and Noonan would have to gone far off course—either completely in the wrong direction to end up in Saipan directly which seems to require an implausible degree of incompetence, or still significantly (&amp;gt;1000km off course) to end up in the Marshall Islands.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The Japanese would have had to made secret captives of them, rather than either celebrating the rescue as a prestige-boost (remember Japan and the USA were in a tense, but far from war, relationship at this point) or parading them as spies.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The Japanese would have to have kept this so secret at the time that no material or archived evidence has ever been found of it, other than by US authorities.&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The US would have to have found about this—either in the initial very extensive search in 1937, or after World War II while in occupation of Japan—and for some unfathomable reason kept it secret themselves.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This combination just seems vanishingly unlikely to me so I bravely make the prediction that the coming release of files from the US will reveal nothing substantive new about the matter. But nothing is certain! I will humbly admit I’m wrong if necessary.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There’s decent Wikipedia articles on &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amelia_Earhart&quot;&gt;Amelia Earhart&lt;/a&gt;, and on the &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation_on_the_disappearance_of_Amelia_Earhart_and_Fred_Noonan&quot;&gt;speculations about their disappearance&lt;/a&gt;. I won’t try to comprehensively summarise these as I have nothing really to add, but the latter article provides a good, simple summary:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
  &lt;p&gt;“Speculation on the disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan has continued since their disappearance in 1937. After the largest search and rescue attempt in history up to that time, the U.S. Navy concluded that Earhart and Noonan ditched at sea after their plane ran out of fuel; this “crash and sink theory” is the most widely accepted explanation. However, several alternative hypotheses have been considered.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Earhart and Noonan took off from &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lae_Airfield&quot;&gt;Lae&lt;/a&gt; in Papua New Guinea and headed to &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howland_Island&quot;&gt;Howland Island&lt;/a&gt; which is now an incorporated territory of the United States.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A key fact is that the last received radio message from Earhart and Noonan was that they were flying along a line of position running north-to-south on 157–337 degrees. This implies they had reached where they thought Howland Island should be and had turned at a sharp angle—either just east of south, or just west of north—to try to find it.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The non-insane key hypotheses for what happened once they got roughly in the vicinity of Howland Island are (in descending order of plausibility):&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;They found no land, ran out of fuel and crashed into the ocean&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;they travelled on a 157 degree bearing (south of south-east), found Gardner Island (now Nikumaroro, part of Kiribati), crashed there and eventually died of thirst or hunger&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;they turned too early, travelled on a 337 degree bearing (north of north-west) and ended up in the Marshall Islands, perhaps Mili or Jaluit Atoll and were picked up by the Japanese.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So I drew this chart, with key features including:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;the key places named above&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;the modern names of the areas that made up the Japanese-controlled South Seas Mandate&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;The 157-337 degree line of position reported by Earhart and Noonan, if it were centred on Howland Island (noting of course that they probably weren’t actually centered there, but a bit away from it, or they would have found it).&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I’ve put it on a big enough scale to really get a sense of the vast distances and enormous bodies of water involved.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;object type=&quot;image/svg+xml&quot; data=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0307-map1.svg&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://freerangestats.info/img/0307-map1.png&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What I like about this map is that we can see these locations in context all at once—nothing in the most accessible parts of the web dealing with this issue does this for me, although I’m sure it’s been done somewhere. We can instantly see, for example, how implausible it is that Earhart and Noonan actually flew to Saipan themselves. They may not have been flawless navigators (or I wouldn’t be writing this at all), but they were far from clueless beginners to set off at 90 degrees to their intended course.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I think there were a lot of things that might have gone wrong for me here. I had to manually type in a lot of latitudes and longitudes, I only did a few hours reading and thinking on the whole topic, I had to do various ad hoc things to work out what was meant by the line of position, draw a Pacific-centred map, etc. So as usual, any feedback is very welcome and if what I’ve done is bad enough I’ll fix it.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s it really. Pesonally, I think the generally accepted answer that they got a little off course, ran out of fuel and crashed in the ocean somewhere close to where they were heading (but not close enough, unfortunately) is very likely indeed.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Here’s the code that draws the map:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;figure class=&quot;highlight&quot;&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code class=&quot;language-r&quot; data-lang=&quot;r&quot;&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tidyverse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;library&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggrepel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# Lae airfield, PNG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lae_Airfield&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howland_Island&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# other lat and long similarly taken from the other wikipedia articles&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# longitudes that are west of 180 degrees count at first as negative for this&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# way of centering a map on Pacific:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tribble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                             &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;43&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;59&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;146&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;59&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Lae Airfield&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Origin&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;48&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;25.84&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;176&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;36&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;59.48&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Howland Island&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Planned&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;40&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;32&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;174&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;31&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nikumaroro&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Unlikely&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;15&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;11&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;145&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;45&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Saipan&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Unlikely&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;55&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;18&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;      &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;169&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;38&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;33&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Jaluit Atoll&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Unlikely&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;171&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;55&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Mili Atoll&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Unlikely&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# fix those negative longitudes to work on a 0:360 scale:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
          &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;360&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the 157/337 line of position, centred on Howland Island&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# 23 degrees to the west of north, 23 degrees to the east of south&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# tan(angle) = opposite / adjacent. so if we set north/south arbitrarily to be 8 for drawing our line,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjacent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;8&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;opposite&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;tan&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-23&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nb&quot;&gt;pi&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;/&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;180&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjacent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;adjacent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
              &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;*&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;opposite&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# build a background map out of two maps joined together.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fortify&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;maps&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;::&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;map&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;FALSE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;as_tibble&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;()&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;360&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;max&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;rbind&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;90&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;amp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;360&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;amp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;50&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;amp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-60&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;japan&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ifelse&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;%in%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Japan&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Palau&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Northern Mariana Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                                       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Micronesia&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;North Korea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;South Korea&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
                        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Japanese-controlled&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Not Japanese-controlled&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# some points for labels ofjapanese-controlled labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;filter&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;japan&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Japanese-controlled&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group_by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;summarise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;median&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;median&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;|&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# tweaks for label positions&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mutate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;case_when&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Northern Mariana Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2.0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Marshall Islands&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;         &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3.3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
    &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;kc&quot;&gt;TRUE&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;                                 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;~&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the possible, unlikely colour and linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;lightsalmon&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the japanese controlled colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;red&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# the colour for the planned line of travel:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plcol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;&amp;lt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;darkblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# draw the actual plot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ggplot&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;mp&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# add background map&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_polygon&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;group&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey60&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;coord_map&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xlim&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;100&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;206&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;ylim&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-22&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;35&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# add labels of Japanese-controlled areas:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;region&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# three lines from Lae outwards&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_segment&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
               &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;type&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linewidth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# two lines from Howland Island:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_segment&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;xend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;long&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;yend&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;]&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;$&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lat&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
               &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linewidth&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# line of position reported by Earhart and Noonan&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_line&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;lop&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# points and labels of various locations&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_point&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;white&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;shape&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;19&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_label_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;grey20&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;geom_label_repel&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;data&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;earhart&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;],&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;aes&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;name&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;alpha&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.9&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;seed&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;123&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# annotations:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;182&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;6.2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Line of position reported by Earhart and Noonan while seeking Howland Island.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;40&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;189&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;-7&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Nikumaroro, or Gardner Island, has been searched repeatedly and no firm evidence found.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;36&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;140&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;21.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;hjust&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;size&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
           &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;str_wrap&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Witnesses claimed to see the execution of Earhart and Noonan by Japanese soldiers in Saipan but no records, other confirming evidence or motivation have been found.&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;58&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;annotate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;text&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;152&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;10&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;label&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Japan&apos;s South Seas Mandate&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;jc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;c1&quot;&gt;# scales, colours, themes, etc:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_linetype_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_colour_manual&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;values&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;plcol&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;pc&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;scale_x_continuous&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;breaks&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;120&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;150&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;180&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;210&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; 
                     &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labels&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;120E&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;150E&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;180&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;150W&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;labs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;y&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;linetype&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Routes&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;colour&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Routes&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;title&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Key locations relating to disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan in 1937&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
       &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;subtitle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;Most likely explanation was running out of fuel and crash in ocean near Howland Island&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;+&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;theme&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;panel.background&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;element_rect&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;fill&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;s2&quot;&gt;&quot;lightblue&quot;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;),&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt;
        &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;n&quot;&gt;legend.position&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;o&quot;&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;nf&quot;&gt;c&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.963&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;w&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;m&quot;&gt;0.064&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;p&quot;&gt;))&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That’s all folks. Take your navigation seriously!&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
				<pubDate>Sun, 05 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +1100</pubDate>
				<link>https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10/05/earhart-map</link>
				<guid isPermaLink="true">https://freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10/05/earhart-map</guid>
			</item>
		
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