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title: "New Paper: Vegetation Tracking Climate Across Timescales"
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date: 2025-07-03 12:00:00 -0700
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categories: media
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blurb:
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A new study just out in [Science](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700), led by recent alum Dr. David Fastovich, is exciting for its analysis of vegetation tracking of climate change across an unprecedented range timescales. It's well known that plant distributions and abundances are sensitive to climate, particularly at broader spatial scales and longer timescales, but the rapid climate changes happening today raise urgent questions about how quickly plant species can respond, and whether these responses will be linear or non-linear.
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To tackle these questions, Fastovich et al conducted joint spectral analysis of ecological time series and paleoclimatic model simulations to identify the timescales at which vegetation dynamics are tracking climate change, across timescales from decades to hundreds of thousands of years.
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The popular press reporting mainly focused on a divergence at timescales shorter than 150 years, which is very interesting and suggests that plant community composition is already lagging climate change in our human lifetimes. But equally interesting, although a bit more arcane, is the finding that there is a breakpoint in vegetation turnover at around 800 years, that roughly matches a similar breakpoint in Earth's climate system between 'climate' timescales and 'weather' timescales that was reported by Peter Huybers and colleagues. At longer timescales, Earth's climate system has memory and the effects of forcings predominate. At shorter timescales, stochastic and chaotic processes dominate. The similar breakpoint reported by Fastovich et al. suggests that vegetation dynamics may be driven by climate variability across this breakpoint, so that memory and stochasticity in vegetation systems may be partially driven by atmospheric processes.
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The Syracuse ([press release](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/250704032919.htm)) available on Science Daily provides good additional background context.
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Also, Dr. Fastovich is starting a new tenure-track faculty position at the University of Georgia. Congratulations David!
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---
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## Publications
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## Selected Publications
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### Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles
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### Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles (*indicates students or postdocs in lab)
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***
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#### 2025
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* Fastovich, David, Meyers, S.R., Saupe, E.E., Williams, J.W., Dornelas, M., Dowding, E.M., Finnegan, S., Huang, H.-H.M., Jonkers, L., Kiessling, W., Kocsis, Á.T., Li, Q., Liow, L.H., Na, L., Penny, A.M., Pippenger, K., Renaudie, J., Rillo, M.C., Smith, J., Steinbauer, M.J., Sugawara, M., Tomašovỳch, A., Yasuhara, M., Hull, P.M., 2025. *Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales.***Science** 389: 64-68. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adr6700)
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* Salonen, J.S., Schenk, F., Williams, J.W., Shuman, B.N., Lindroth Dauner, A.L., Wagner, S., Jungclaus, J., Zhang, Q., Luoto, M., 2025. *Patterns and drivers of Holocene moisture variability in mid-latitude eastern North America.***Nature Communications** 16: 3582. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58685-7)
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* Stemkovski, M., Bernhardt, J.R., Blonder, B.W., Bradford, J.B., Clark-Wolf, K., Dee, L.E., Evans, M.E.K., Iglesias, V., Johnson, L.C., Lynch, A.J., Malone, S.L., Osborne, B.B., Pastore, M.A., Paterson, M., Pinsky, M.L., Rollinson, C.R., Selmoni, O., Venkiteswaran, J.J., Walker, A.P., Ward, N.K., Williams, J.W., Zarakas, C.M., Adler, P.B., 2025. *Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change.***Functional Ecology** n/a. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.70079)
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* Staples, T.L., Blois, J., Cramer, K.L., Cunningham, E.T., Dornelas, M., Haberle, S.G., Heger, T., Kiessling, W., Magurran, A.E., O’Dea, A., Penny, A.M., Radeloff, V.C., Smith, J.A., Thuiller, W., Williams, J.W., Pandolfi, J.M., 2025. *A conceptual framework for measuring ecological novelty.***Global Ecology and Biogeography** 34, e70005. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70005)
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#### 2024
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#### 2023
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#### 2022
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#### 2021
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#### 2020
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#### 2019
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#### 2018
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#### 2017
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#### 2016
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* Ordonez, A., Williams, J. W., and Svenning, J. C. (2016) *Mapping climate mechanisms likely to favour the emergence of novel communities.***Nature Climate Change**[DOI](https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3127).
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## Books
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***
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* Williams, J. W., B. Shuman, P. J. Bartlein, J. Whitmore, K. Gajewski, M. Sawada, T. Minckley, S. Shafer, A. E. Viau, T. Webb, III, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, C. Whitlock, and O. K. Davis. (2006) *An Atlas of Pollen-Vegetation-Climate Relationships for the United States and Canada*. American Association of Stratigraphic Palynologists Foundation, Dallas, TX. 273p
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