This software ("CosmoRisk") is provided for educational and research purposes only. The simulation results, orbital predictions, and impact assessments are approximations based on simplified physical models and may not accurately represent real-world outcomes.
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Orbital Elements: Asteroid orbital data from NASA NeoWs API may have uncertainties ranging from meters to kilometers depending on observation history.
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Physics Model: The simulation implements comprehensive orbital mechanics including:
- N-body gravity with Moon perturbations for close Earth approaches
- J2 oblateness perturbation
- Solar Radiation Pressure
- Yarkovsky thermal effect
- Jupiter/Mars gravitational perturbations
However, it does not include:
- Non-gravitational outgassing
- Binary asteroid interactions
- General relativistic effects (except simplified precession)
- Precise thermal modeling
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MOID Calculation: Uses 72×72 point orbital sampling for accuracy, but is not JPL-grade precision.
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Torino Scale: Our energy-based Torino classification is a simplified model that:
- Converts kinetic energy to Megatons TNT
- Uses probability × energy thresholds
- Does NOT replace official NASA Sentry or ESA NEOCC assessments
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Impact Predictions: All "hazard" or "impact" assessments are NOT official NASA/ESA determinations. For official assessments, consult:
THE AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS PROVIDE THIS SOFTWARE "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES, OR OTHER LIABILITY ARISING FROM THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE.
This software should NOT be used for:
- Mission planning or spacecraft operations
- Threat assessment for governmental agencies
- Any safety-critical applications
- Making real-world planetary defense decisions
For questions about real asteroid threats, contact:
- NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO)
- ESA Space Safety Programme
Last updated: 18.12.2025