diff --git a/lists/Washington_DC_2024.lst b/lists/Washington_DC_2024.lst new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c6c0beff --- /dev/null +++ b/lists/Washington_DC_2024.lst @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +# Light +Schelling_Game +Battle_Hymn_Of_The_Rationalist_Community +Solstice_Then_And_Now +Litany_of_Gendlin +Litany_of_Tarski: If the sky is blue +X_Days_of_X_Risk +The_Circle +Bold_Orion +Internal_Coordination +Thats_Coordination + +# Twilight +Song_of_the_Artesian_Water +Hymn_to_the_Breaking_Strain +Seikilos_Epitaph + +# Night +Songs_Stay_Sung +Litany_of_Tarski: If the world will end in the next three years +Beneath_Midwinter_Midnight +Minute_of_Silence + +# Dawn +Brighter_Than_Today +Endless_Light +One_Thousand_Years_Adapted +Litany_of_Tarski: If we can predict the future a thousand years in advance +The_GTF +Litany_of_Tarski: Meta +Landsailor diff --git a/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024-slides.html b/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024-slides.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..db31d532 --- /dev/null +++ b/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024-slides.html @@ -0,0 +1,601 @@ + + + + Washington DC 2024 Automated Slides + + + + Loading... \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024.html b/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6cd1c0d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/lists/gen/Washington_DC_2024.html @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ + + + + Washington DC 2024 + + + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Programs +
+ +

Washington DC 2024

+

Light

+ +

Twilight

+ +

Night

+ +

Dawn

+Autogenerated SlidesRaw Git \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/songs/Bold_Orion/README.md b/songs/Bold_Orion/README.md index 6f4f8d23..9e5d1520 100644 --- a/songs/Bold_Orion/README.md +++ b/songs/Bold_Orion/README.md @@ -7,3 +7,9 @@ The constellation of Orion dominates the winter sky, and is one of the few that [A recording of this from the 2020 North American Distributed Chorus](https://www.jefftk.com/solstice-2020/06-bold-orion--2020-12-20-010858.mp3) is available. There's also a recording [from the DC Solstice 2022 band](../Bold_Orion_DC_2022.mp3). + +Some accuracy notes on Bold Orion from DC Solstice 2024: + +> The next song, Bold Orion, is in part about how winter will kill you if you’re unprepared, which is a central theme of Solstice. Some notes on the accuracy of the song, since that is important to us. It is actually written from the perspective of early fall, “when the days are getting shorter”-- at that time of year, you may see Orion towards the east at midnight. At other times of year, such as the winter solstice, it appears at a different time and location during the night. + +> And there has been one change to the lyrics this year for accuracy. Orion is not in fact older than the continents; although stars last a very long time, the patterns of stars in our sky do not. Constellations shift on a timescale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. So rather than “kings and continents and all,” this year, we are singing “kings and commonwealths and all.” diff --git a/songs/Bold_Orion/gen/index.html b/songs/Bold_Orion/gen/index.html index 5339aa2d..97076d26 100644 --- a/songs/Bold_Orion/gen/index.html +++ b/songs/Bold_Orion/gen/index.html @@ -22,7 +22,14 @@

By Leo Kretzner and Jon Bell

A mythologically inspired ode to Orion the Hunter

The constellation of Orion dominates the winter sky, and is one of the few that can be reliably seen in a modern, light-polluted world.

A recording of this from the 2020 North American Distributed Chorus is available.

-

There's also a recording from the DC Solstice 2022 band.

+

There’s also a recording from the DC Solstice 2022 band.

+

Some accuracy notes on Bold Orion from DC Solstice 2024:

+
+

The next song, Bold Orion, is in part about how winter will kill you if you’re unprepared, which is a central theme of Solstice. Some notes on the accuracy of the song, since that is important to us. It is actually written from the perspective of early fall, “when the days are getting shorter”– at that time of year, you may see Orion towards the east at midnight. At other times of year, such as the winter solstice, it appears at a different time and location during the night.

+
+
+

And there has been one change to the lyrics this year for accuracy. Orion is not in fact older than the continents; although stars last a very long time, the patterns of stars in our sky do not. Constellations shift on a timescale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. So rather than “kings and continents and all,” this year, we are singing “kings and commonwealths and all.”

+

edit description

Lyrics

diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Makefile b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Makefile new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d3afbf59 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Makefile @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +PREFIX=Seikilos_Epitaph- +FILES_TO_LIST=lyrics.txt + +gen/${PREFIX}lyrics.txt: lyrics.txt + cp lyrics.txt gen/${PREFIX}lyrics.txt +include ../Makefile.common diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/README.md b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d6fe3611 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +# Seikilos Epitaph +## The oldest piece of music in the world. + +For DC Solstice 2024, we introduced this song with: + +> This next song is included not only for its content, but for the fact that it currently exists at all. + +> In the first century CE, a man named Seikilos (see-ki-los) placed a stone in the ground to mark the grave of a woman named Euterpe (yu-ter-pay). The stone bore this inscription: "I am a tombstone, I am an image. Seikilos placed me here as a long-lasting sign of deathless remembrance." Below this was written a song. Dedicated to Euterpe. This is the Seikilos Epitaph, and it is the oldest fully intact piece of music in the world. + +There is [a recording](../Seikilos_Epitaph_DC_2024.mp3) and [sheet music](../Seikilos_Epitaph.pdf) available. diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph.pdf b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph.pdf new file mode 100644 index 00000000..109efda0 Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph.pdf differ diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph_DC_2024.mp3 b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph_DC_2024.mp3 new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dbd07ef1 Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/Seikilos_Epitaph_DC_2024.mp3 differ diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/Seikilos_Epitaph-lyrics.txt b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/Seikilos_Epitaph-lyrics.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f8776d91 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/Seikilos_Epitaph-lyrics.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +As you live, shine +Do not dwell in grief at all +Life is with us for just a short while +Time demands its toll +Oh-oh-oh diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/index.html b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/index.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..34dfc6dd --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ + + + Seikilos Epitaph + + + + + + + + + +

+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Programs +
+
+

Seikilos Epitaph

+

The oldest piece of music in the world.

+

For DC Solstice 2024, we introduced this song with:

+
+

This next song is included not only for its content, but for the fact that it currently exists at all.

+
+
+

In the first century CE, a man named Seikilos (see-ki-los) placed a stone in the ground to mark the grave of a woman named Euterpe (yu-ter-pay). The stone bore this inscription: “I am a tombstone, I am an image. Seikilos placed me here as a long-lasting sign of deathless remembrance.” Below this was written a song. Dedicated to Euterpe. This is the Seikilos Epitaph, and it is the oldest fully intact piece of music in the world.

+
+

There is a recording and sheet music available.

+

edit description

+
+

Lyrics

+As you live, shine
+Do not dwell in grief at all
+Life is with us for just a short while
+Time demands its toll
+Oh-oh-oh
+

+

Files

+Raw Git Folder + diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/thumb.png b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/thumb.png new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1e18b6c0 Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/gen/thumb.png differ diff --git a/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/lyrics.txt b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/lyrics.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f8776d91 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Seikilos_Epitaph/lyrics.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +As you live, shine +Do not dwell in grief at all +Life is with us for just a short while +Time demands its toll +Oh-oh-oh diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/Makefile b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Makefile new file mode 100644 index 00000000..46e0b6e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Makefile @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +PREFIX=Thats_Coordination- +FILES_TO_LIST=lyrics.txt + +gen/${PREFIX}lyrics.txt: lyrics.txt + cp lyrics.txt gen/${PREFIX}lyrics.txt +include ../Makefile.common diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/README.md b/songs/Thats_Coordination/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9a9538cb --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Thats_Coordination/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +# That's Coordination +## A riff on That's Cooperation from Sesame Street. + +This song is originally sung by Big Bird, with some modifications made for the rationalist set. + +The original Sesame Street song can be found [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kihZUsADQTQ). + +A recording from DC Solstice 2024 is available [here](../Thats_Coordination_DC_2024.mp3). We also produced [sheet music](../Thats_Coordination.pdf). + +For DC Solstice 2024, we introduced the song with: + +> The next song was originally sung by Big Bird about working together to achieve a common goal. We’ve changed it up just a bit, but it’s still basically the same idea. diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination.pdf b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination.pdf new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ea51e7f7 Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination.pdf differ diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination_DC_2024.mp3 b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination_DC_2024.mp3 new file mode 100644 index 00000000..419bd2f2 Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Thats_Coordination/Thats_Coordination_DC_2024.mp3 differ diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/Thats_Coordination-lyrics.txt b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/Thats_Coordination-lyrics.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ac6e3f35 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/Thats_Coordination-lyrics.txt @@ -0,0 +1,33 @@ +A wise old nerd once told me +And I believe it’s true +He said the world’s full of different tribes with different points of view +But sometimes there’s a job so big if we want to get it done +We have to get those folks together and all work as one +And that’s cooperation + +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! +With just a little cooperation, we can make it through, me and you +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! + +But just cooperation +Won’t always be enough +Sometimes we meet defectors who make things awfully tough +So to keep our system working +And make it more robust +We'll align selfish incentives... +… to create greater trust! +AND THAT’S… COORDINATION. +With quite a lot of coordination, we can muddle through, me and you + +Oh it doesn’t matter whether +We’re birds of a different feather +As long as when the right time comes +We’re ready to act together +(That’s coordination) + +Coord! Coord! Coordination! +Coord! Coord! Coordination! +With quite a lot of coordination, we can make it through, me and you +Me and you + diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/index.html b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/index.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..17861cd2 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,74 @@ + + + That's Coordination + + + + + + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Programs +
+
+

That’s Coordination

+

A riff on That’s Cooperation from Sesame Street.

+

This song is originally sung by Big Bird, with some modifications made for the rationalist set.

+

The original Sesame Street song can be found here.

+

A recording from DC Solstice 2024 is available here. We also produced sheet music.

+

For DC Solstice 2024, we introduced the song with:

+
+

The next song was originally sung by Big Bird about working together to achieve a common goal. We’ve changed it up just a bit, but it’s still basically the same idea.

+
+

edit description

+
+

Lyrics

+A wise old nerd once told me
+And I believe it’s true
+He said the world’s full of different tribes with different points of view
+But sometimes there’s a job so big if we want to get it done
+We have to get those folks together and all work as one
+And that’s cooperation
+
+Coop! Coop! Cooperation!
+Coop! Coop! Cooperation!
+With just a little cooperation, we can make it through, me and you
+Coop! Coop! Cooperation!
+
+But just cooperation
+Won’t always be enough
+Sometimes we meet defectors who make things awfully tough
+So to keep our system working
+And make it more robust
+We'll align selfish incentives...
+… to create greater trust!
+AND THAT’S… COORDINATION.
+With quite a lot of coordination, we can muddle through, me and you
+
+Oh it doesn’t matter whether
+We’re birds of a different feather
+As long as when the right time comes
+We’re ready to act together
+(That’s coordination)
+
+Coord! Coord! Coordination!
+Coord! Coord! Coordination!
+With quite a lot of coordination, we can make it through, me and you
+Me and you
+

+

Files

+Raw Git Folder + diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/thumb.png b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/thumb.png new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e1c8c21b Binary files /dev/null and b/songs/Thats_Coordination/gen/thumb.png differ diff --git a/songs/Thats_Coordination/lyrics.txt b/songs/Thats_Coordination/lyrics.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ac6e3f35 --- /dev/null +++ b/songs/Thats_Coordination/lyrics.txt @@ -0,0 +1,33 @@ +A wise old nerd once told me +And I believe it’s true +He said the world’s full of different tribes with different points of view +But sometimes there’s a job so big if we want to get it done +We have to get those folks together and all work as one +And that’s cooperation + +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! +With just a little cooperation, we can make it through, me and you +Coop! Coop! Cooperation! + +But just cooperation +Won’t always be enough +Sometimes we meet defectors who make things awfully tough +So to keep our system working +And make it more robust +We'll align selfish incentives... +… to create greater trust! +AND THAT’S… COORDINATION. +With quite a lot of coordination, we can muddle through, me and you + +Oh it doesn’t matter whether +We’re birds of a different feather +As long as when the right time comes +We’re ready to act together +(That’s coordination) + +Coord! Coord! Coordination! +Coord! Coord! Coordination! +With quite a lot of coordination, we can make it through, me and you +Me and you + diff --git a/speeches/Internal_Coordination.md b/speeches/Internal_Coordination.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..63fdf8ee --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/Internal_Coordination.md @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +# Internal Coordination +## by Rivka Fleischman +The human mind is a flock of birds flying through the sky. When everything works as intended, you do not see the individual birds – only a faraway “v” shape that glides through the sky. But when the flock is failing to coordinate, you see each individual bird and miss the beauty of the flock. + +The Buggers from Ender’s Game have perfect communication and coordination and function as a unit because information is instantly passed to all members of the species, and all members share the same goals. But the downside is that as soon as you kill the queen, the species is unable to act because only the queen has the will to do anything other than follow the queen. + +Because our minds have multiple different parts, we do not need to consult the queen in order to act. However, it does make communication and coordination much more complicated. + +So much of how our mind works builds on the past. At each moment, no one is asking us “what are you needing in order to make yourself coordinate perfectly?” But maybe we should. + +Imagine yourself as a cat you have just adopted. A small, terrified thing. Hiding under the dresser. But at the same time, you are also the adult who brought the cat home and wants to play with it. For the cat, it is lonely, scary, and confusing under the dresser. But from what it knows, the dresser is the safest place. It would be quite nice if the cat could just understand that it is safe. But why should it? It does not know you and it does not speak your language. + +As bad as the system is, it’s comfortable and secure. But it’s a coordination problem. If the human could tell the cat they are safe and the cat could tell the human what they are needing in order to feel comfortable, things could be very different. But unfortunately, they can’t. At least not without concerted time, effort, and understanding. + +There cannot be success until we convince the part of us that seems to be on an opposing team to join us in a unified effort to achieve our mutual goals. Instead of two armies fighting to seize control of the reins. + +It’s so tempting to destroy our mob. The part of us that has goals that we do not endorse. But that goal is neither possible nor desirable. But to create a functional system, we need to genuinely take the time to listen to, respect, and be compassionate towards the mob – even if part of you is frustrated. And then to honor what the mob is actually needing. + +And in doing this, “I show the mob that I respect its demands, and that I’m on its side. After all, we have the same goals; and furthermore, I am not the king in my mind. I do not desire a fight (and if I did, I wouldn’t win). +-- Nate Soares + +When dealing with our inner mob, it feels like the only options are to give up hope of fixing this coordination problem and pretending it does not exist or to let the mob take over. + +If coordination was simple, Moloch would not exist. Yet, human societies work better when we value and respect each individual. In the same way, by letting different parts of our mind speak and negotiating agreements between them, representing each one’s interests, we can reach a better state, much more effectively than just choosing one and trying to squash all of the others. + +But it’s hard and there is so much in our mind we do not understand and do not know how to face. Our mind can feel like an overwhelming, dysfunctional world we live in. And that’s okay. + diff --git a/speeches/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.md b/speeches/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4725e3ab --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.md @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +# One Thousand Years +## by Jacob Kopczynski, adapted by Max Koren + +*The original blog post this speech is based on can be found [here](https://thepdv.wordpress.com/2024/12/23/one-thousand-years/).* + +The future is inherently unpredictable. The laws of physics may be absolute, but there’s no way to simulate a chaotic system, not when you live inside of it. All we can do is let the future come to pass—though, perhaps, not entirely passively. + +You might think I’m talking about AI, and I am, but even outside of AI, even the most near-term progress is terrifyingly difficult to predict. + +In the San Francisco Exploratorium, I’m told there’s a gearbox with an astronomically low gear ratio. Worm gears drive standard spur gears which in turn connect to more worm gears, each connection dropping the speed by a factor of 60. A motor spins the first gear at 200 RPM, and the final gear is set to make its first revolution in 13.7 billion years. + +This system is trivially easy to predict. + +But imagine it worked backwards. In practice, there’d be far too much resistance to turn the twelfth gear in the sequence, and even if you could, it would cause the first gear to exceed the speed of light. But imagine if you could give that twelfth gear just a quarter turn. Can we predict how many rotations the first gear makes? + +We’re already imagining something that’s impossible, but even in our imagination, the manufacturing of the gears isn’t perfectly precise. We can’t just take one quarter and multiply it by 60 a bunch of times. Even if we could, if you’re off by a tenth of an arcsecond when you made your initial quarter-turn, you’re now hopelessly lost in your calculations. This is closer to how our world works. + +AI may mean that we can’t predict ten years out. But even if we never invent AI, a thousand years? We have no idea what’s coming. The best technologist, the best historian, the best sociologist—even if they were all fused into one mega-expert, they just can’t forecast out that far. + +But shouldn’t we make up scenarios anyway? Won’t that help? + +I say no. Absolutely not. You’ll still be confused, but now you’ll also be meta-confused. You’ll have a fictional example to generalize from, which might make you forget that you’re still confused. + +There are certain broad categories of technology—AI, synthetic biology—that we can reason about. But the specifics? Quantum computers versus holograms versus Ozempic versus flying cars? Prediction errors cascade rapidly. + +So… declare bankruptcy. Stop trying. Much easier to not worry about what wild things, good or bad, the future will bring, when you accept that none of the details will be anything like what you imagine. No matter how intense or bizarre your worries are about the unpredictably far future, whether that means a thousand years of normal life or ten of AI super-progress, you can say to yourself, confidently: it will certainly not be like that. + +And you’ll be right. + +Which doesn’t mean we can’t say anything about the future. The future will be wild. It will not look like the present. Either we will be dead, or we will have the power to ever-more-radically alter the universe, or both. + +Probably not in that order. + +Our successors, whether they’re human or not, will have that power. They’ll be capable of climbing the Kardashev Scale, using the Sun, and then many suns, and then eventually they’ll hit the limits of the physical universe—and, unless it turns out we’re in a simulation, we can confidently guess that physics will be solved. + +But details? A boot stamping on a human face forever? Planets tiled with factory farms? The Matrix? + +No. Those aren’t going to happen. It might be worse, and it might be better, but it will be weirder. Inconceivably weird, almost certainly. + +But this doesn’t mean we have to lie down and wait to see what happens. We can remain optimistic, and we can still attempt to steer. We shouldn’t steer toward specific detailed futures; that will only mislead us. But we can steer toward properties of futures. + +It is good to steer toward averting apocalypses. + +It is good to steer toward humanity being able to recover from apocalypses. + +It is good to steer toward humans maintaining control of AGI. + +And finally, it’s good to steer towards the meta-value of retaining those values that we believe will continue to serve us. + +If you see a way to steer the world in those directions, that’s a reason to be optimistic. Like driving though the fog, you can’t know exactly what route you need to take. Advance carefully, reassess, and then keep going. On larger time scales, each small correction you make will echo through history. That’s the best anyone can do. diff --git a/speeches/Schelling_Game.md b/speeches/Schelling_Game.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f4296258 --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/Schelling_Game.md @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ +# Schelling Game +## By Rivka Fleischman & Maia Werbos + +This is a game about coordination, to be played before the main ritual as an icebreaker. + +Estimate your number of attendees and your desired average group size-- e.g. if you expect 40 attendees, and want groups of 4 on average, select 10 categories. + +Pass out handouts with each category and ask attendees to take a randomly selected one as they come in. + +Their task is to find other attendees with the same category, then each person tries to think of an item in the category they expect the others will also pick. They reveal their choices at the same time to see if they succeeded. + +Optional: at the start of the ritual, ask attendees to share their experience in their group. + +## Suggested handout text for attendees +> Find other people with the same category as you. +> Secretly, think of an item from the category. +> Try to pick the same one as everyone in your group. +> Reveal what you picked and see how you all did! +> Your category is: + +## Some category ideas +* Animal +* Sea Creature +* Thought experiment +* Paradox +* ACX/SSC Post +* Fruit +* Vegetable +* Vehicle +* War +* Weapon +* Country +* Famous Rationalist +* President +* Plant +* Composer +* Artist +* Technology +* Video Game +* Book +* Color +* Instrument +* Cleaning Product +* Light Source +* Story Trope +* Superhero +* Smell +* Sound diff --git a/speeches/Solstice_Then_And_Now.md b/speeches/Solstice_Then_And_Now.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a47f27e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/Solstice_Then_And_Now.md @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +# Solstice, Then And Now +## by Maia Werbos + +Hi, everyone. Just out of curiosity, raise your hands: how many people have been to a Solstice before? + +(pause) + +And how many have not? + +(pause) + +Welcome to the new folks. And re-welcome to folks who have been here before. As an introduction for the new people, and a reminder to everyone else, I’m going to talk a bit about the history of Solstice and why we celebrate it the way we do. + +My own first experience with Secular Solstice songs was not an actual Solstice, but an East Coast rationalist megameetup in New York City in early 2012. The first-ever Solstice was a gathering at Ray Arnold’s house in 2011, but the first official event was in 2013, two years later. In between those two events, Ray took the songs he was working on for this new Secular Solstice holiday he was creating, and he brought them to the megameetup, and we all sang them together. Basically, he was testing them out on us. + +He explained to us what he was trying to do: to make a holiday that resembled his family holiday celebrations, but actually reflected his deep values and up-to-date beliefs. A more accurate holiday was necessarily more depressing, because there are some depressing truths to confront in this world: We humans are out here alone. Nihil supernum. Only nothingness above. Yet, it’s worth looking down, too. We’re alone with ourselves, but that’s not actually the same thing as alone. We have each other. And through the long dark of winter, we can help each other. We can make the world better. + +We sang “Brighter than Today” together, the song that started it all, and it was exciting. I was eighteen, and it felt like I was part of an unstoppable movement toward a better world. + +… Solstice has changed a lot since then. + +We used to have a lot more songs lifted from other communities, traditions, and places. Over time more and more of them have come from our community, arranged or rewritten or fully originally composed by us. + +Some basic ideas have stuck around. Striving for truth-- to the point where we argue over edits to songs and speeches each year, because accuracy is important, dammit! Human struggle in a harsh universe, and the desire to make that universe a kinder place. + +But the world has changed, and that has changed Solstice. + +For many of us, every year since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, it’s looked more like the world might end soon. And that’s affected what we put into this yearly ritual. + +There are more pieces, now, about making meaning with limited time. About being glad with what we have, even if we wish desperately for more. + +I would never want our Solstice to glorify involuntary death, or the extinction of the human race. Those things are bad. We do not want them to happen. And whenever possible, we want people to put everything they have into stopping them. + +And at the same time, it can be worth appreciating what we do have, for as long as we have it. + +This is one reason we decided to make this year’s theme “coordination”. Eliezer Yudkowsky has written about a fictional world called “dath ilan” that coordinates better than ours. When they discover an existential risk that threatens the whole world, that has an increased risk the more people know about it, they take the drastic step of *literally sealing off their world’s history*, so that the information hazard can’t spread any further. They embody the virtue of what he calls “Doing Something Else Which Is Not That.” You see something bad that could happen, you see it being totally inevitably bad because each person acts within an incentive framework that makes everyone worse off, and you just decide: what if we did something different? Something which is *not* that thing? + +Earth is never going to be quite like dath ilan. Which is why a lot of this program is about making meaning out of a limited lifetime for ourselves and possibly the human race. But some of it is about coordinating with each other to make a better world-- when we can-- in pieces. And when we can’t, well. Some of our songs are about that too. + diff --git a/speeches/gen/Internal_Coordination.html b/speeches/gen/Internal_Coordination.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cc33f23c --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/gen/Internal_Coordination.html @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ + + + + Internal Coordination + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Blog +
+

Internal Coordination

+

by Rivka Fleischman

+

The human mind is a flock of birds flying through the sky. When everything works as intended, you do not see the individual birds – only a faraway “v” shape that glides through the sky. But when the flock is failing to coordinate, you see each individual bird and miss the beauty of the flock.

+

The Buggers from Ender’s Game have perfect communication and coordination and function as a unit because information is instantly passed to all members of the species, and all members share the same goals. But the downside is that as soon as you kill the queen, the species is unable to act because only the queen has the will to do anything other than follow the queen.

+

Because our minds have multiple different parts, we do not need to consult the queen in order to act. However, it does make communication and coordination much more complicated.

+

So much of how our mind works builds on the past. At each moment, no one is asking us “what are you needing in order to make yourself coordinate perfectly?” But maybe we should.

+

Imagine yourself as a cat you have just adopted. A small, terrified thing. Hiding under the dresser. But at the same time, you are also the adult who brought the cat home and wants to play with it. For the cat, it is lonely, scary, and confusing under the dresser. But from what it knows, the dresser is the safest place. It would be quite nice if the cat could just understand that it is safe. But why should it? It does not know you and it does not speak your language.

+

As bad as the system is, it’s comfortable and secure. But it’s a coordination problem. If the human could tell the cat they are safe and the cat could tell the human what they are needing in order to feel comfortable, things could be very different. But unfortunately, they can’t. At least not without concerted time, effort, and understanding.

+

There cannot be success until we convince the part of us that seems to be on an opposing team to join us in a unified effort to achieve our mutual goals. Instead of two armies fighting to seize control of the reins.

+

It’s so tempting to destroy our mob. The part of us that has goals that we do not endorse. But that goal is neither possible nor desirable. But to create a functional system, we need to genuinely take the time to listen to, respect, and be compassionate towards the mob – even if part of you is frustrated. And then to honor what the mob is actually needing.

+

And in doing this, “I show the mob that I respect its demands, and that I’m on its side. After all, we have the same goals; and furthermore, I am not the king in my mind. I do not desire a fight (and if I did, I wouldn’t win). – Nate Soares

+

When dealing with our inner mob, it feels like the only options are to give up hope of fixing this coordination problem and pretending it does not exist or to let the mob take over.

+

If coordination was simple, Moloch would not exist. Yet, human societies work better when we value and respect each individual. In the same way, by letting different parts of our mind speak and negotiating agreements between them, representing each one’s interests, we can reach a better state, much more effectively than just choosing one and trying to squash all of the others.

+

But it’s hard and there is so much in our mind we do not understand and do not know how to face. Our mind can feel like an overwhelming, dysfunctional world we live in. And that’s okay.

+edit + diff --git a/speeches/gen/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.html b/speeches/gen/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a099484e --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/gen/One_Thousand_Years_Adapted.html @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ + + + + One Thousand Years + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Blog +
+

One Thousand Years

+

by Jacob Kopczynski, adapted by Max Koren

+

The original blog post this speech is based on can be found here.

+

The future is inherently unpredictable. The laws of physics may be absolute, but there’s no way to simulate a chaotic system, not when you live inside of it. All we can do is let the future come to pass—though, perhaps, not entirely passively.

+

You might think I’m talking about AI, and I am, but even outside of AI, even the most near-term progress is terrifyingly difficult to predict.

+

In the San Francisco Exploratorium, I’m told there’s a gearbox with an astronomically low gear ratio. Worm gears drive standard spur gears which in turn connect to more worm gears, each connection dropping the speed by a factor of 60. A motor spins the first gear at 200 RPM, and the final gear is set to make its first revolution in 13.7 billion years.

+

This system is trivially easy to predict.

+

But imagine it worked backwards. In practice, there’d be far too much resistance to turn the twelfth gear in the sequence, and even if you could, it would cause the first gear to exceed the speed of light. But imagine if you could give that twelfth gear just a quarter turn. Can we predict how many rotations the first gear makes?

+

We’re already imagining something that’s impossible, but even in our imagination, the manufacturing of the gears isn’t perfectly precise. We can’t just take one quarter and multiply it by 60 a bunch of times. Even if we could, if you’re off by a tenth of an arcsecond when you made your initial quarter-turn, you’re now hopelessly lost in your calculations. This is closer to how our world works.

+

AI may mean that we can’t predict ten years out. But even if we never invent AI, a thousand years? We have no idea what’s coming. The best technologist, the best historian, the best sociologist—even if they were all fused into one mega-expert, they just can’t forecast out that far.

+

But shouldn’t we make up scenarios anyway? Won’t that help?

+

I say no. Absolutely not. You’ll still be confused, but now you’ll also be meta-confused. You’ll have a fictional example to generalize from, which might make you forget that you’re still confused.

+

There are certain broad categories of technology—AI, synthetic biology—that we can reason about. But the specifics? Quantum computers versus holograms versus Ozempic versus flying cars? Prediction errors cascade rapidly.

+

So… declare bankruptcy. Stop trying. Much easier to not worry about what wild things, good or bad, the future will bring, when you accept that none of the details will be anything like what you imagine. No matter how intense or bizarre your worries are about the unpredictably far future, whether that means a thousand years of normal life or ten of AI super-progress, you can say to yourself, confidently: it will certainly not be like that.

+

And you’ll be right.

+

Which doesn’t mean we can’t say anything about the future. The future will be wild. It will not look like the present. Either we will be dead, or we will have the power to ever-more-radically alter the universe, or both.

+

Probably not in that order.

+

Our successors, whether they’re human or not, will have that power. They’ll be capable of climbing the Kardashev Scale, using the Sun, and then many suns, and then eventually they’ll hit the limits of the physical universe—and, unless it turns out we’re in a simulation, we can confidently guess that physics will be solved.

+

But details? A boot stamping on a human face forever? Planets tiled with factory farms? The Matrix?

+

No. Those aren’t going to happen. It might be worse, and it might be better, but it will be weirder. Inconceivably weird, almost certainly.

+

But this doesn’t mean we have to lie down and wait to see what happens. We can remain optimistic, and we can still attempt to steer. We shouldn’t steer toward specific detailed futures; that will only mislead us. But we can steer toward properties of futures.

+

It is good to steer toward averting apocalypses.

+

It is good to steer toward humanity being able to recover from apocalypses.

+

It is good to steer toward humans maintaining control of AGI.

+

And finally, it’s good to steer towards the meta-value of retaining those values that we believe will continue to serve us.

+

If you see a way to steer the world in those directions, that’s a reason to be optimistic. Like driving though the fog, you can’t know exactly what route you need to take. Advance carefully, reassess, and then keep going. On larger time scales, each small correction you make will echo through history. That’s the best anyone can do.

+edit + diff --git a/speeches/gen/Schelling_Game.html b/speeches/gen/Schelling_Game.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..745e6bc8 --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/gen/Schelling_Game.html @@ -0,0 +1,57 @@ + + + + Schelling Game + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Blog +
+

Schelling Game

+

By Rivka Fleischman & Maia Werbos

+

This is a game about coordination, to be played before the main ritual as an icebreaker.

+

Estimate your number of attendees and your desired average group size– e.g. if you expect 40 attendees, and want groups of 4 on average, select 10 categories.

+

Pass out handouts with each category and ask attendees to take a randomly selected one as they come in.

+

Their task is to find other attendees with the same category, then each person tries to think of an item in the category they expect the others will also pick. They reveal their choices at the same time to see if they succeeded.

+

Optional: at the start of the ritual, ask attendees to share their experience in their group.

+

Suggested handout text for attendees

+
+

Find other people with the same category as you. Secretly, think of an item from the category. Try to pick the same one as everyone in your group. Reveal what you picked and see how you all did! Your category is:

+
+

Some category ideas

+ +edit + diff --git a/speeches/gen/Solstice_Then_And_Now.html b/speeches/gen/Solstice_Then_And_Now.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c52de473 --- /dev/null +++ b/speeches/gen/Solstice_Then_And_Now.html @@ -0,0 +1,36 @@ + + + + Solstice, Then And Now + + + + +
+ Home + Songs + Speeches + Blog +
+

Solstice, Then And Now

+

by Maia Werbos

+

Hi, everyone. Just out of curiosity, raise your hands: how many people have been to a Solstice before?

+

(pause)

+

And how many have not?

+

(pause)

+

Welcome to the new folks. And re-welcome to folks who have been here before. As an introduction for the new people, and a reminder to everyone else, I’m going to talk a bit about the history of Solstice and why we celebrate it the way we do.

+

My own first experience with Secular Solstice songs was not an actual Solstice, but an East Coast rationalist megameetup in New York City in early 2012. The first-ever Solstice was a gathering at Ray Arnold’s house in 2011, but the first official event was in 2013, two years later. In between those two events, Ray took the songs he was working on for this new Secular Solstice holiday he was creating, and he brought them to the megameetup, and we all sang them together. Basically, he was testing them out on us.

+

He explained to us what he was trying to do: to make a holiday that resembled his family holiday celebrations, but actually reflected his deep values and up-to-date beliefs. A more accurate holiday was necessarily more depressing, because there are some depressing truths to confront in this world: We humans are out here alone. Nihil supernum. Only nothingness above. Yet, it’s worth looking down, too. We’re alone with ourselves, but that’s not actually the same thing as alone. We have each other. And through the long dark of winter, we can help each other. We can make the world better.

+

We sang “Brighter than Today” together, the song that started it all, and it was exciting. I was eighteen, and it felt like I was part of an unstoppable movement toward a better world.

+

… Solstice has changed a lot since then.

+

We used to have a lot more songs lifted from other communities, traditions, and places. Over time more and more of them have come from our community, arranged or rewritten or fully originally composed by us.

+

Some basic ideas have stuck around. Striving for truth– to the point where we argue over edits to songs and speeches each year, because accuracy is important, dammit! Human struggle in a harsh universe, and the desire to make that universe a kinder place.

+

But the world has changed, and that has changed Solstice.

+

For many of us, every year since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, it’s looked more like the world might end soon. And that’s affected what we put into this yearly ritual.

+

There are more pieces, now, about making meaning with limited time. About being glad with what we have, even if we wish desperately for more.

+

I would never want our Solstice to glorify involuntary death, or the extinction of the human race. Those things are bad. We do not want them to happen. And whenever possible, we want people to put everything they have into stopping them.

+

And at the same time, it can be worth appreciating what we do have, for as long as we have it.

+

This is one reason we decided to make this year’s theme “coordination”. Eliezer Yudkowsky has written about a fictional world called “dath ilan” that coordinates better than ours. When they discover an existential risk that threatens the whole world, that has an increased risk the more people know about it, they take the drastic step of literally sealing off their world’s history, so that the information hazard can’t spread any further. They embody the virtue of what he calls “Doing Something Else Which Is Not That.” You see something bad that could happen, you see it being totally inevitably bad because each person acts within an incentive framework that makes everyone worse off, and you just decide: what if we did something different? Something which is not that thing?

+

Earth is never going to be quite like dath ilan. Which is why a lot of this program is about making meaning out of a limited lifetime for ourselves and possibly the human race. But some of it is about coordinating with each other to make a better world– when we can– in pieces. And when we can’t, well. Some of our songs are about that too.

+edit +