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lectures/cagan_ree.md

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## A fiscal theory of the price level
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# A fiscal theory of the price level
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```python
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import numpy as np
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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```
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<!-- #region -->
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We'll use linear algebra to do some experiments with a "fiscal theory of the price level".
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According to this model, when the government persistently spends more than it collects in taxes and prints money to finance the shortfall (called the "government deficit"), it puts upward pressure on the price level and generates
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plus accumulation of rates of money growth between times $0$ and $t$.
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### Continuation values
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## Continuation values
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To determine the continuation inflation rate $\pi_{T+1}^*$ we shall proceed by applying the following infinite-horizon
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In devising these experiments, we'll make assumptions about $\{\mu_t\}$ that are consistent with formula
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{eq}`eq:piterm`.
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#### Note to Jiacheng
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### Note to Jiacheng
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Hi. You did a great job -- much better than I did.
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Below I'll describe the changes.
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#### End of Note to Jiacheng
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### End of Note to Jiacheng
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We now describe three such experiments.
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so that, in terms of our notation and formula for $\theta_{T+1}^*$ above, $\tilde \gamma = 1$.
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#### Experiment 1
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### Experiment 1
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**A foreseen stabilization**
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\end{cases}
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$$
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#### Experiment 2
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### Experiment 2
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**Gradual stabilization**
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$$
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#### Experiment 3
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### Experiment 3
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**An MIT shock**
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#### Experiment 4
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### Experiment 4
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Eventually, we might want to perform the following experiment right after we do experiment 3.
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$$
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#### The Log Price Level
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### The Log Price Level
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We can use equations {eq}`eq:caganmd` and {eq}`eq:ree`
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equation {eq}`eq:pformula2`.
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#### Jump in $p_{T_1}$ or jump in $m_{T_1}$?
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### Jump in $p_{T_1}$ or jump in $m_{T_1}$?
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If we insist that the money supply $m_{T_1}$ is locked at its value $m_{T_1}^1$ inherited from the past, then formula {eq}`eq:pformula2` implies that the price level jumps downward at time $T_1$, to coincide with the downward jump in
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In various research papers about stabilizations of high inflations, the jump in the money supply described by equation {eq}`eq:eqnmoneyjump` has been called
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"the velocity dividend" that a government reaps from implementin a regime change that sustains a permanently lower inflation rate.
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#### Another note to Jiacheng
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### Another note to Jiacheng
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I apologize that you'll have to change the code -- actually simplify it -- to do the revised experiments.
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I recommend setting $\mu_0 = .2$ and $\mu^* =0 $ to start our three experiments.
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#### End of another note to Jiacheng
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### End of another note to Jiacheng
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<!-- #endregion -->
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