Close remaining policyengine-uk parity gaps

Author: MaxGhenis

parameters/2023_24.yaml

@@ -94,16 +94,30 @@ tax_credits:
   wtc_basic_element: 2280.0
   wtc_couple_element: 2340.0
   wtc_lone_parent_element: 2340.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 950.0
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 941.48965992279
   ctc_child_element: 3235.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
+  ctc_family_element: 672.4775218247399
   ctc_disabled_child_element: 3905.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1575.0
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1559.6986476495597
   income_threshold: 7455.0
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 18725.0
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 72.749819034911
+  amount_single_25_plus: 91.83275119262535
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 72.749819034911
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 91.83275119262535
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 72.749819034911
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 91.83275119262535
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 144.2644968298405
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 25.00

parameters/2024_25.yaml

@@ -94,16 +94,30 @@ tax_credits:
   wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
   wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
   wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1010.2208980088745
   ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
+  ctc_family_element: 721.570161529213
   ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1673.5607787567
+  income_threshold: 7955.0
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 19995.0
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 78.06074845416569
+  amount_single_25_plus: 98.53678518789846
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 78.06074845416569
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 98.53678518789846
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 78.06074845416569
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 98.53678518789846
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 154.7961870873778
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 26.70

parameters/2025_26.yaml

@@ -105,11 +105,11 @@ state_pension:
 pension_credit:
   # State Pension Credit Regs 2002 (SI 2002/1792) reg.6
   # As amended by SI 2025/295 art.29
-  standard_minimum_single: 227.10  # Weekly (reg.6(1)(b))
-  standard_minimum_couple: 346.60  # Weekly (reg.6(1)(a))
+  standard_minimum_single: 221.85  # Weekly (reg.6(1)(b))
+  standard_minimum_couple: 338.61  # Weekly (reg.6(1)(a))
   # Savings credit threshold: reg.7(2)
-  savings_credit_threshold_single: 198.27
-  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 314.34
+  savings_credit_threshold_single: 193.02
+  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 306.34
 
 benefit_cap:
   # Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.96; Benefit Cap (Housing Benefit and UC) Regs 2016
@@ -135,22 +135,36 @@ tax_credits:
   # Tax Credits Act 2002; SI 2002/2005 (Working Tax Credit Regs)
   # SI 2002/2007 (Child Tax Credit Regs)
   # WTC elements (annual)
-  wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
-  wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
+  wtc_basic_element: 2476.0
+  wtc_couple_element: 2542.0
+  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2542.0
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1035.781552853733
   # CTC elements (annual)
-  ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
-  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
+  ctc_child_element: 3513.0
+  ctc_family_element: 739.8273623865201
+  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4240.0
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1715.9052892612901
   # Income thresholds and taper
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  income_threshold: 8080.0
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 20335.0
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   # Minimum hours for WTC
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 80.03584504155657
+  amount_single_25_plus: 101.02996738267794
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 80.03584504155657
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 101.02996738267794
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 80.03584504155657
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 101.02996738267794
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 158.71284721313765
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   # Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018; SSI 2020/351

parameters/2026_27.yaml

@@ -68,10 +68,10 @@ state_pension:
   old_basic_pension_weekly: 184.55
 
 pension_credit:
-  standard_minimum_single: 237.52
-  standard_minimum_couple: 362.52
-  savings_credit_threshold_single: 207.37
-  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 328.78
+  standard_minimum_single: 229.50324050600412
+  standard_minimum_couple: 350.29115288590515
+  savings_credit_threshold_single: 199.67868146255992
+  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 316.90792290560876
 
 benefit_cap:
   single_london: 15410.0
@@ -89,19 +89,33 @@ housing_benefit:
   family_premium: 18.53
 
 tax_credits:
-  wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
-  wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
-  ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
-  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  wtc_basic_element: 2561.415476641272
+  wtc_couple_element: 2629.692302755296
+  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2629.692302755296
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1071.5132875198233
+  ctc_child_element: 3634.1892445237436
+  ctc_family_element: 765.3494572130548
+  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4386.268829143374
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1775.0995009549627
+  income_threshold: 8358.738712141147
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 21036.503924677007
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 82.7968708301719
+  amount_single_25_plus: 104.51523508019152
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 82.7968708301719
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 104.51523508019152
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 82.7968708301719
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 104.51523508019152
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 164.18802229141048
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 28.20

parameters/2027_28.yaml

@@ -66,10 +66,10 @@ state_pension:
   old_basic_pension_weekly: 190.40
 
 pension_credit:
-  standard_minimum_single: 242.30
-  standard_minimum_couple: 369.83
-  savings_credit_threshold_single: 211.54
-  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 335.41
+  standard_minimum_single: 235.19440372507364
+  standard_minimum_couple: 358.9775841575262
+  savings_credit_threshold_single: 204.63026282178822
+  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 324.7665252969982
 
 benefit_cap:
   single_london: 15410.0
@@ -87,19 +87,33 @@ housing_benefit:
   family_premium: 18.53
 
 tax_credits:
-  wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
-  wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
-  ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
-  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  wtc_basic_element: 2624.9328087594427
+  wtc_couple_element: 2694.902746311189
+  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2694.902746311189
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1098.0844025822162
+  ctc_child_element: 3724.3089487770285
+  ctc_family_element: 784.3283991705728
+  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4495.038412415201
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1819.1179687018669
+  income_threshold: 8566.016597244063
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 21558.161819920544
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 84.85004665846874
+  amount_single_25_plus: 107.1069774033472
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 84.85004665846874
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 107.1069774033472
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 84.85004665846874
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 107.1069774033472
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 168.25951527519777
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 28.85

parameters/2028_29.yaml

@@ -67,10 +67,10 @@ state_pension:
   old_basic_pension_weekly: 195.16
 
 pension_credit:
-  standard_minimum_single: 247.15
-  standard_minimum_couple: 377.23
-  savings_credit_threshold_single: 215.77
-  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 342.12
+  standard_minimum_single: 239.94582020294078
+  standard_minimum_couple: 366.2296785166454
+  savings_credit_threshold_single: 208.76422003863706
+  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 331.3274850618385
 
 benefit_cap:
   single_london: 15410.0
@@ -88,19 +88,33 @@ housing_benefit:
   family_premium: 18.53
 
 tax_credits:
-  wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
-  wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
-  ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
-  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  wtc_basic_element: 2677.9619149086384
+  wtc_couple_element: 2749.3453908310817
+  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2749.3453908310817
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1120.2679930158424
+  ctc_child_element: 3799.547741144607
+  ctc_family_element: 800.1734652982278
+  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4585.847544108492
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1855.8679378966174
+  income_threshold: 8739.067961414295
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 21993.681558831646
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 86.56419420388441
+  amount_single_25_plus: 109.27076127434306
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 86.56419420388441
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 109.27076127434306
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 86.56419420388441
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 109.27076127434306
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 171.6587076912343
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 29.45

parameters/2029_30.yaml

@@ -66,10 +66,10 @@ state_pension:
   old_basic_pension_weekly: 200.04
 
 pension_credit:
-  standard_minimum_single: 252.18
-  standard_minimum_couple: 384.92
-  savings_credit_threshold_single: 220.16
-  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 349.08
+  standard_minimum_single: 244.84104640938585
+  standard_minimum_couple: 373.7012698881323
+  savings_credit_threshold_single: 213.02329852575912
+  savings_credit_threshold_couple: 338.08702347104463
 
 benefit_cap:
   single_london: 15410.0
@@ -87,19 +87,33 @@ housing_benefit:
   family_premium: 18.53
 
 tax_credits:
-  wtc_basic_element: 2435.0
-  wtc_couple_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2500.0
-  wtc_30_hour_element: 1015.0
-  ctc_child_element: 3455.0
-  ctc_family_element: 545.0
-  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4170.0
-  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1680.0
-  income_threshold: 7455.0
+  wtc_basic_element: 2732.596037456116
+  wtc_couple_element: 2805.435834900423
+  wtc_lone_parent_element: 2805.435834900423
+  wtc_30_hour_element: 1143.123007672962
+  ctc_child_element: 3877.0637639674214
+  ctc_family_element: 816.4981093937862
+  ctc_disabled_child_element: 4679.405169149407
+  ctc_severely_disabled_child_element: 1893.7302076273797
+  income_threshold: 8917.35702045453
+  ctc_only_income_threshold: 22442.383045908773
   taper_rate: 0.41
+  minimum_benefit: 26.0
   wtc_min_hours_single: 30.0
   wtc_min_hours_couple: 24.0
 
+income_support:
+  amount_single_under25: 88.33022335016526
+  amount_single_25_plus: 111.50003575695733
+  amount_lone_parent_under18: 88.33022335016526
+  amount_lone_parent_18_plus: 111.50003575695733
+  amount_couple_both_under18: 88.33022335016526
+  amount_couple_age_gap: 111.50003575695733
+  amount_couple_both_18_plus: 175.1607824668812
+  income_disregard_single: 5.0
+  income_disregard_couple: 10.0
+  income_disregard_lone_parent: 20.0
+
 
 scottish_child_payment:
   weekly_amount: 30.05

scripts/validate_against_policyengine_uk.py

@@ -361,10 +361,6 @@ def build_case(
         },
         tags=["baseline", "legacy", "tax_credits"],
         metrics=["child_tax_credit", "working_tax_credit"],
-        known_failure=(
-            "Rust legacy tax credits disagree materially with policyengine-uk for "
-            "a reported-claim lone-parent case."
-        ),
     ),
     build_case(
         name="legacy_income_support_lone_parent_2025",
@@ -389,10 +385,6 @@ def build_case(
         },
         tags=["baseline", "legacy", "income_support"],
         metrics=["income_support"],
-        known_failure=(
-            "Rust income support remains substantially above policyengine-uk for "
-            "a reported-claim lone-parent case."
-        ),
     ),
     build_case(
         name="scottish_child_payment_2025",
@@ -463,10 +455,6 @@ def build_case(
         },
         tags=["baseline", "pension"],
         metrics=["pension_credit"],
-        known_failure=(
-            "Rust pension credit remains above policyengine-uk for this low-income "
-            "single pensioner scenario."
-        ),
     ),
 ]