From a866dc97d22ecc2de913c07070f698b4f40f3ca1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Don Boyd <donboyd5@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2026 07:57:00 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?Add=20per-bin=20CTC=20targets=20to=20state=20sp?=
 =?UTF-8?q?ec=20(169=20=E2=86=92=20175=20targets)?=
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

Add 6 per-bin CTC rows (amount + nz-count for $10K-$25K, $25K-$50K,
$50K-$75K) to match the CD spec. Previously CTC was total-only for
states.

Results: 14 areas with violations (was 30 with 169 targets), 34
violated targets (was 125). Bystander distortion unchanged. The
duplicate CTC shares bug (fixed in PR 2) made per-bin CTC feasible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 .../fingerprints/states_fingerprint.json      | 104 +++++++++---------
 .../prepare/recipes/state_target_spec.csv     |   6 +
 2 files changed, 58 insertions(+), 52 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tmd/areas/fingerprints/states_fingerprint.json b/tmd/areas/fingerprints/states_fingerprint.json
index 01e368f0..bf73b275 100644
--- a/tmd/areas/fingerprints/states_fingerprint.json
+++ b/tmd/areas/fingerprints/states_fingerprint.json
@@ -1,57 +1,57 @@
 {
   "n_areas": 51,
   "per_area_int_sums": {
-    "AK": 415791,
-    "AL": 2762087,
-    "AR": 1631739,
-    "AZ": 4132505,
-    "CA": 22174018,
-    "CO": 3430800,
-    "CT": 2124185,
-    "DC": 433577,
-    "DE": 586366,
-    "FL": 13044856,
-    "GA": 6023316,
-    "HI": 833430,
-    "IA": 1766300,
-    "ID": 1029793,
-    "IL": 7239136,
-    "IN": 3846951,
-    "KS": 1617612,
-    "KY": 2475428,
-    "LA": 2513256,
-    "MA": 4201046,
-    "MD": 3598516,
-    "ME": 830704,
-    "MI": 5793917,
-    "MN": 3264136,
-    "MO": 3447588,
-    "MS": 1580717,
-    "MT": 646366,
-    "NC": 5922856,
-    "ND": 433592,
-    "NE": 1082430,
-    "NH": 824615,
-    "NJ": 5323243,
-    "NM": 1219684,
-    "NV": 1845416,
-    "NY": 11690631,
-    "OH": 6780588,
-    "OK": 2155817,
-    "OR": 2453765,
-    "PA": 7519481,
-    "RI": 665125,
-    "SC": 2959988,
-    "SD": 506399,
-    "TN": 3902420,
-    "TX": 16304386,
-    "UT": 1759690,
-    "VA": 4908473,
-    "VT": 392672,
-    "WA": 4424726,
-    "WI": 3410721,
-    "WV": 990364,
-    "WY": 319797
+    "AK": 415949,
+    "AL": 2759074,
+    "AR": 1629150,
+    "AZ": 4133101,
+    "CA": 22170281,
+    "CO": 3431419,
+    "CT": 2125371,
+    "DC": 434395,
+    "DE": 585531,
+    "FL": 13041846,
+    "GA": 6019480,
+    "HI": 832299,
+    "IA": 1765323,
+    "ID": 1027854,
+    "IL": 7243625,
+    "IN": 3845172,
+    "KS": 1616857,
+    "KY": 2474425,
+    "LA": 2505736,
+    "MA": 4202718,
+    "MD": 3601911,
+    "ME": 831809,
+    "MI": 5792787,
+    "MN": 3262630,
+    "MO": 3447294,
+    "MS": 1576252,
+    "MT": 645826,
+    "NC": 5922530,
+    "ND": 432642,
+    "NE": 1081251,
+    "NH": 825287,
+    "NJ": 5322410,
+    "NM": 1220302,
+    "NV": 1845078,
+    "NY": 11693444,
+    "OH": 6778580,
+    "OK": 2155854,
+    "OR": 2454389,
+    "PA": 7520348,
+    "RI": 664801,
+    "SC": 2960073,
+    "SD": 506100,
+    "TN": 3902635,
+    "TX": 16289516,
+    "UT": 1755116,
+    "VA": 4907377,
+    "VT": 392971,
+    "WA": 4422084,
+    "WI": 3411408,
+    "WV": 989510,
+    "WY": 319371
   },
-  "weight_hash": "5ce2e8e78e5faa4d"
+  "weight_hash": "4cbaad6f10ed3a04"
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/tmd/areas/prepare/recipes/state_target_spec.csv b/tmd/areas/prepare/recipes/state_target_spec.csv
index 29d00def..96b9edbd 100644
--- a/tmd/areas/prepare/recipes/state_target_spec.csv
+++ b/tmd/areas/prepare/recipes/state_target_spec.csv
@@ -168,3 +168,9 @@ eitc,0,1,0,-9e+99,9e+99,EITC amount all bins
 eitc,2,1,0,-9e+99,9e+99,EITC nz-count all bins
 ctc_total,0,1,0,-9e+99,9e+99,Child tax credit amount all bins
 ctc_total,2,1,0,-9e+99,9e+99,Child tax credit nz-count all bins
+ctc_total,0,1,0,10000.0,25000.0,CTC+ACTC amount $10K-$25K
+ctc_total,0,1,0,25000.0,50000.0,CTC+ACTC amount $25K-$50K
+ctc_total,0,1,0,50000.0,75000.0,CTC+ACTC amount $50K-$75K
+ctc_total,2,1,0,10000.0,25000.0,CTC+ACTC nz-count $10K-$25K
+ctc_total,2,1,0,25000.0,50000.0,CTC+ACTC nz-count $25K-$50K
+ctc_total,2,1,0,50000.0,75000.0,CTC+ACTC nz-count $50K-$75K